Author: Rowan Kavner

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The Hot Stove has been cold through the first three weeks of November, but the action is expected to heat up soon with MLB’s winter meetings nearing. In the meantime, we’re examining each team to identify its three biggest needs this offseason and which free agents could fulfill them.

Our series continues with the American League West.

HOUSTON ASTROS 

1. Third base: It’s bizarre to think about Alex Bregman wearing a different uniform. Will the Astros front office heed Jose Altuve’s request to keep him? It won’t come cheap, and it would take owner Jim Crane doing what he didn’t when Carlos Correa departed, but figuring that out has to be at the top of the winter to-do list. If Bregman departs, the in-house solutions are limited, and there’s a significant drop-off behind him at his position on the free-agent market. 

2. First base: It’s hard to imagine the Astros feeling great entering the season with Jon Singleton and Victor Caratini as their top first base options. The aforementioned Christian Walker, Pete Alonso and Carlos Santana are available. Then again, how much does the Jose Abreu signing linger in the Astros’ nightmares? Their decision at the spot could depend on their belief in prospect Zach Dezenzo’s readiness to contribute and whether they’ll be doling out the money required to keep Bregman in their lineup. 

3. Outfield: The Astros were starting Jason Heyward, who was released in late August by the Dodgers, in left field in the playoffs. Heyward is now a free agent. The in-house options on the 40-man roster bring questions. Chas McCormick couldn’t replicate his 2023 form, and both Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubon were below league-average hitters as well. It might not be long before top prospect Jacob Melton is roaming the Houston outfield, but signing an established bat against righties would help. Maybe this is a spot for Jesse Winker or Michael Conforto, or perhaps the Astros could swing a trade for Cody Bellinger, who could help fill needs both in the outfield and at first. 

TEXAS RANGERS 

1. Relief pitching: Only four teams had a higher bullpen ERA than the Rangers last year, and that’s with Kirby Yates (1.17 ERA) going 33-for-34 in save chances in an All-Star season and David Robertson (3.00) making solid contributions. Now, their three most trusted high-leverage options — Yates, Robertson and Jose Leclerc, who had 41 saves over his eight seasons with the club — are all free agents. A return could be in the cards for any of them, but the back end of the bullpen should be the top offseason priority, whether through free agency or the trade market, where maybe Devin Williams or Ryan Helsley could be had for the right package.  

2. Starting pitching: The rotation is taking hits, too, with Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and Max Scherzer all reaching free agency. Eovaldi would be the biggest loss, and the Rangers could still look to keep him after he declined his $20 million vesting player option. The current rotation of Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle, Jon Gray, Cody Bradford and rookies Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker brings both upside and volatility, especially considering the injury history here, so the Rangers should look to add some stability. Someone from the second tier of starting pitchers on the market — Eovaldi, Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino — could make sense, or maybe they could swing a deal for a Sonny Gray or a Garrett Crochet. 

3. Catcher: Jonah Heim was among the plethora of Rangers championship contributors who regressed in 2024. An All-Star and Gold Glover a year ago, he produced the lowest wRC+ of any catcher with at least 400 plate appearances this season and took a step back defensively. With backup Carson Kelly hitting free agency, the Rangers might need to add some help behind the plate. The upside is limited on the open market, but Kelly, Kyle Higashioka, Danny Jansen, Gary Sanchez and Yasmani Grandal are among the options. Given MItch Garver’s struggles this year in Seattle, could the Mariners be open to dealing the 2023 Rangers standout back to a division rival?

SEATTLE MARINERS 

1. Third base: The Mariners are expected to operate at a higher budget than their $145 million 2024 payroll. Exactly how much further they’re willing to run the account will determine how much more pop they can really add to the lineup. Could their latest disappointment break them from tradition and get them involved in the Alex Bregman or Willy Adames sweepstakes? I wouldn’t count on it, but that’s the kind of injection this offense probably needs. They could also look to the trade market, where the Phillies’ Alec Bohm would be a strong fit for a Seattle team that tried and failed to cut its strikeout rate in 2024. 

2. Second base: The Jorge Polanco deal didn’t work out. He’s now a free agent, and the Mariners have to be seen as a potential destination for Gleyber Torres after his mercurial stint in New York. They might be able to live with his defensive lapses if he can jumpstart the offense. If they don’t want to take that chance, they could get better defense with a lower offensive ceiling in Ha-Seong Kim, whose ability to move around the diamond might make him an attractive piece for a Seattle team that needs a lot of infield help. On the trade market, this might be an interesting spot for Brandon Lowe. If they don’t swing a move, prospect Cole Young could find himself in the equation sooner than later. 

3. First base: The Mariners need to add some pop somewhere, and there are plenty of paths they could take at first base. They could bring back Justin Turner, who had a 128 OPS+ in 48 games while platooning late in the year with Luke Raley, attempt to revive Paul Goldschmidt or swing higher for Christian Walker or Pete Alonso. The trade market might offer another path, as Seattle’s excess of starting pitching could be enough to entice Cleveland to move Josh Naylor, Tampa Bay to trade Yandy Díaz or Boston to deal Triston Casas. If the Mariners stand pat here, prospect Tyler Locklear would likely get a long look at the spot. 

ATHLETICS 

1. Third base: What’s it like to have to recruit a player to Sacramento? The A’s are about to find out the type of challenge that might present as they look for options at third base, where 10 different players logged at least some action at the spot in 2024. Darell Hernaiz and Brett Harris could be part of the mix, and prospect Max Muncy logged time at the hot corner in Triple-A, but the answer might come from outside the organization. This might be another logical landing spot for Ha-Seong Kim, but if they make Brent Rooker available, that could open doors for a difference-making player on the trade front, too. 

2. Starting pitching: Will flamethrowing closer Mason Miller shift back to a starting role? That’s a question the A’s will need to answer. Regardless, after seeing progress in 2024, they’ll need some more experience in the rotation. I’d expect them to add a veteran pitcher to the starting group to help guide the path forward for the novice group. Maybe a reunion with Frankie Montas could be in the cards, but there’s no shortage of lower-cost options (Jose Quintana? Andrew Heaney? Martin Perez?) to fill out the rotation.

3. Relief pitching: The A’s could use help across the pitching staff, but the need will become especially glaring in the bullpen if Miller makes the shift to the rotation, especially with Lucas Erceg now in Kansas City. Another experienced arm at the back end would make a lot of sense. 

LOS ANGELES ANGELS

1. Starting pitching: The rotation could use someone with more swing-and-miss stuff. The addition of Kyle Hendricks doesn’t change that. Prospects Caden Dana, George Klassen or Sam Aldeghiri could provide a boost, but it would make sense if someone like reigning champion and L.A. native Jack Flaherty or another free agent such as Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, Nathan Eovaldi or Shane Bieber end up with the Angels, who have been active early in free agency. 

2. A proven infielder: The most logical move would be to add a third baseman, considering Anthony Rendon has played an average of 51 games per season during his Angels tenure and had a career-worst .574 OPS (and 66 OPS+) in 2024. But Luis Rengifo could shift over there if the Angels can swing a move at second base, which is also a question mark next season. Prospect Christian Moore may be ready to help there soon, but they could use another proven bat and more depth in the infield regardless. Ha-Seong Kim or Gleyber Torres could be fits if the Angels aren’t willing to dabble in the Alex Bregman or Willy Adames sweepstakes. 

3. Center field: If the Angels want to give Mike Trout more time at a corner spot or at DH to keep him healthy, they need a better option in center. There aren’t many on the open market, however. Do they have the prospect capital to swing a trade for Luis Robert Jr. or Cody Bellinger? If not, someone like Harrison Bader could make sense. 

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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The latest pitching sensation out of Japan appears bound for Major League Baseball in 2025. 

The Chiba Lotte Marines announced that they have decided to begin the process of posting star pitcher Roki Sasaki, clearing the path for the hard-throwing 23-year-old to transfer from Nippon Professional Baseball to MLB. Sasaki will be subject to international amateur free-agent restrictions, making him available for all 30 teams to sign at a much more modest cost than he would go for on the open market. 

Players who are posted under the age of 25 can only sign a minor-league deal from an MLB club’s international bonus pool money. Think more Shohei Ohtani, who was under the same limitations when he signed with the Angels for a paltry $2.3 million in December 2017, than Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was 25 when he signed with the Dodgers for a record $325 million last offseason. 

While Yamamoto was the more decorated and durable pitcher in NPB, Sasaki is younger, bigger and throws harder. The flamethrower has been on the international radar dating back to his high school days and gained further acclaim in April 2022, when he threw a 19-strikeout perfect game for the Marines at just 20 years old. 

RELATED: 2025 MLB free-agent rankings, team fits: Where does Roki Sasaki slot in?

Sasaki can light up a radar gun. His fastball has clocked in over 102 mph in Japan and touched 101.9 at the World Baseball Classic, where he sat 100.5 mph and got a bevy of whiffs with his devastating splitter. He was teammates with Yamamoto and Ohtani when Samurai Japan won that 2023 tournament, and there is heavy speculation that he’ll team up with them again next year in Los Angeles. The Dodgers are among the clubs who have expressed interest in Sasaki for years. 

But unlike the pursuit for Yamamoto, every team will be in the mix to acquire Sasaki, given the restrictions capping his earnings. 

Orix received more than $50 million from Yamamoto’s posting fee last year. Chiba Lotte would likely have seen a similar return had the Marines waited another two years until Sasaki was 25. NPB teams control their players’ rights for nine seasons, after which they become free agents and are no longer subject to posting fees. 

But Sasaki has long expressed his desire to pitch in the majors, and while that request wasn’t granted last year, his Japanese club now appears willing to satisfy its young star’s wishes, as it stated Saturday in a statement on X. 

After throwing his perfect game two years ago, Sasaki followed that pristine performance with eight perfect innings. He finished 2022 with 173 strikeouts in 129.1 innings, then registered an even higher strikeout rate a year later, fanning 135 batters in 91 innings. 

Over his four years in NPB, Sasaki tallied a 5.74 strikeout-to-walk ratio — more than a full strikeout higher than Yamamoto, whose 4.48 mark was still good enough to make him the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history. That stat demonstrates Sasaki’s ceiling. His durability presents the red flag. 

While Yamamoto routinely crossed the 170-inning mark in Japan, Sasaki has never thrown even 130 innings in a season. Arm issues this year limited him to 111 innings and likely contributed to slightly diminished velocity and overall stuff. He was still plenty productive, but his 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 4.03 K/BB all represented dips from the dazzling 1.78 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and 7.94 K/BB he posted the season prior. 

Still, he is one of the most intriguing arms available this winter. All 30 clubs will have 45 days to negotiate with Sasaki after he is posted. Once he signs, he is subject to the same rules and team control as any other rookie player. 

It is not yet clear if Sasaki will be posted before the 2024 signing period ends on Dec. 15 or when the 2025 signing period begins on Jan. 15. Whenever he does, he will slot in alongside Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried as one of the most desired pitchers on the market. 

And unlike those other aces, he won’t break the bank. 

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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Juan Soto was going to get a hefty payday, regardless. But surely his uptick in production this season in the Bronx will raise the already exorbitant cost for prospective buyers to secure his services. 

For other players in this year’s free-agent class, a surprise breakout or resurgent year came at just the right time.

Below we rank the 11 players who increased their market value the most with their 2024 production, including reasons to be both excited (green light) and skeptical (red light) about their future output. 

1. Juan Soto, OF 

2023: 5.5 bWAR/6.0 fWAR 
2024: 7.9 bWAR/8.1 fWAR

Green Light: It might feel strange to see him on this list. After all, he was already going to command more money than any free agent this offseason. But putting together the most productive offensive season of his career, and doing it in his first (lone?) season for the Yankees, added many, many millions to the total sum he is about to command. He always had an unrivaled eye at the plate, but his 41 homers and .569 slugging percentage both marked career highs for a full season (he had a ridiculous .351/.490/.695 slash line during the shortened 2020 season). He also hit the ball harder than ever before. By WAR, this was the most valuable season of his career. And, after turning 26 in October, he should just now be entering his prime.

RELATED: Juan Soto sweepstakes: Is he the Yankees’ to lose? Analyzing 9 potential suitors

Red Light: If we had to nitpick, it’d be defensively. It was a bit of a farce that Soto was a Gold Glove finalist, and the older he gets, the worse he’ll probably look out there defensively. But, c’mon, it’s Juan Soto. You can live with it. 

2. Jurickson Profar, OF 

2023 (COL/SD): 0.4 bWAR/-1.6 fWAR
2024 (SD): 3.6 bWAR/4.3 fWAR

Green Light: No one on this list had a more dramatic turnaround in a contract year than Profar, who finished a breakout season setting career highs in every slash line category as well as hits, homers, runs, RBIs and games played. The only qualified National League player with a higher on-base percentage than Profar was Shohei Ohtani. He had the fourth-highest year-over year jump in OBP and the sixth-highest year-over-year jump in slugging percentage in the majors. Coming off a season in which he hit nearly 20% below league average, he suddenly started chasing and whiffing less and hitting the ball significantly harder than ever before. He transformed himself into an All-Star, a decade after everyone expected. As surprising as the breakout was, everything under the hood suggested it wasn’t luck. 

Red Light: The former top prospect never did anything like this in his first 10 big-league seasons. This career year came at 31 years old, in his second stop in San Diego after starting the previous year in Colorado and spending time in Texas and Oakland. With a revival that seemingly came out of nowhere, I’m not sure how any team can know with any certainty what to expect going forward. One thing is clear: Wherever he signs next, it won’t be for $1 million again. 

3. Luis Severino, RHP 

2023: -1.5 bWAR/-0.5 fWAR
2024: 1.6 bWAR/2.1 fWAR

Green Light: Another player who took advantage of a one-year deal, a clean bill of health and an updated repertoire had Severino finding his form again. In his first year making more than 20 starts since his 2018 All-Star season, the right-hander logged 31 outings with the Mets and cut his home run rate in half from where it was the previous year with the Yankees. The addition of a sweeper, which got 60 strikeouts, was particularly useful. While he’s no longer the guy sitting close to 98 mph with a strikeout rate hovering near 30% the way he was as an All-Star in his mid-20s, he demonstrated he can still be plenty effective sitting in the mid-90s. At 31, there’s no reason to think he can’t continue to produce. 

Red Light: A year ago in the Bronx, Severino was 4-8 with a 6.65 ERA. By WAR, that made him a bottom-10 pitcher in baseball. The 2024 season represented a considerable leap forward, though he still isn’t missing bats the way he once did. 

4. Jack Flaherty, RHP 

2023: 0.8 bWAR/1.8 fWAR
2024: 3.1 bWAR/3.2 fWAR

Green Light: In a healthy, resurgent 2024 season, Flaherty ditched his cutter, saw a slight uptick in velocity on his four-seamer, got more swings and misses on the pitch and looked like a completely different guy from where he was last year in St. Louis and (especially) Baltimore. He posted the highest chase rate of his career and a significantly elevated whiff rate. While he wasn’t as good in the second half in Los Angeles as he was in the first half in Detroit, his presence in the rotation was crucial in helping the Dodgers win a championship. Even if he’s more of a middle-of-the-rotation arm, he will be an enticing piece at 29. 

RELATED: 2025 MLB free-agent rankings, team fits: Juan Soto leads top 30

Red Light: His velocity dipped down the stretch of the season, which he attributed to timing issues, then his production fluctuated with every October start, providing fodder for both believers and skeptics. When he saw a playoff opponent for the first time on extra rest, he usually dominated. When he saw that team for a second time on regular rest, he got torched. His injury history could also cause some trepidation. 

5. Sean Manaea, LHP 

2023: 0.3 bWAR/1.2 fWAR
2024: 3.0 bWAR/2.8 fWAR

Green Light: Any way you slice it, this was one of the best seasons of Manaea’s career. Take just the second half, after he made the switch to lower his arm slot à la Chris Sale, and his production was unlike anything he had ever done before. Manaea looked like an ace in his final 12 regular-season starts after making the change (10-2, 3.09 ERA, .538 opponents’ OPS) and was clearly the Mets’ top option in October. 

Red Light: At 33, how much will teams trust his finish over his eight previous seasons, especially as teams get to adjust? It’s worth pointing out he had an extremely low BABIP after making the switch, which might be unsustainable. Still, even if it doesn’t continue to the same degree, his consistent production after the arm slot change can’t be ignored. 

6. Teoscar Hernández, OF 

2023: 2.1 bWAR/1.9 fWAR
2024: 4.3 bWAR/3.5 fWAR

Green Light: Hernández didn’t get the offers he was hoping for last winter after a down year in Seattle. So he bet on himself, taking a one-year deal in Los Angeles in the hopes of playing for a winning team and resetting his market. Check, and check. In an All-Star season, Hernández popped a career-high 33 homers, won the Home Run Derby, then won a World Series as a vital cog in the Dodgers’ lineup. He has expressed a desire to return to Los Angeles, but wherever he goes, he can be confident he’ll be getting more than one year this time around. 

Red Light: Swing and miss is part of his game, and he doesn’t offer a ton of value defensively. While he should get more multi-year offers, it might not be a particularly long deal for the 31 years old. 

7. Willy Adames, SS 

2023: 3.0 bWAR/3.3 fWAR
2024: 3.1 bWAR/4.8 fWAR

Green Light: Adames, who just turned 29, is about to get paid. The only reason he’s low on this list is because his value was already so well-established, but his offensive jump shouldn’t be overlooked. Adames set career highs in hits, homers, doubles, RBIs and stolen bases. If he were part of the free-agent class two years ago, he might get lost in the shuffle. This year, though, he’s far and away the best shortstop on the market. His 112 RBIs ranked fourth in the majors, and he was one of six players to log at least 30 homers, 30 doubles and 20 steals. 

Red Light: A high whiff rate has contributed to a fluctuating batting average and on-base percentage the past few years, but his combination of defense and power have made him a top-10 shortstop over the past five years. 

8. Yusei KIkuchi, LHP 

2023: 0.1 bWAR/2.4 fWAR
2024: 1.4 bWAR/3.5 fWAR 

Green Light: Kikuchi made a tweak to his pitch usage after getting traded to Houston and became everything the Astros could’ve imagined. Upping his slider usage considerably, he posted the highest strikeout rate of his career down the stretch while lowering his ERA from 4.75 in 22 starts with the Blue Jays to 2.70 in 10 starts with the Astros. He finished the year with the eighth-best strikeout rate and 11th-best strikeout-to-walk ratio among all qualified MLB starters. 

Red Light: He will turn 34 in June, and while his stuff misses a lot of bats, he also tends to give up a lot of hard contact. Will his next team get the version that looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball in the season’s second half or the one with a career 4.57 ERA? 

9. Nick Martinez, RHP 

2023: 1.5 bWAR/1.4 fWAR:
2024: 4.0 bWAR/3.5 fWAR:  

Green Light: There’s a reason the Reds gave him the qualifying offer. Martinez is coming off the best season of his big-league career, one that featured better command than he had ever demonstrated before (his 3.2% walk rate was the best mark of his career and trailed only George Kirby and Bryan Woo for the lowest mark among pitchers with at least 100 innings). He excelled as both a starter and reliever. Utilizing everything in his six-pitch arsenal — including an elite changeup that’s responsible for most of his swing and miss — Martinez continues to get hitters to chase and has now posted an ERA under 3.50 in each of his three big-league seasons since resurrecting his career in Japan. 

Red Light: He turned 34 in August, and it wasn’t until then that the Reds made him a permanent fixture in the rotation. His swingman abilities, however, should allow him to fit in well wherever he goes. It’s fair to question whether he can maintain the control he demonstrated in 2024, but his vast arsenal should allow him to continue keeping hitters off balance and limit hard contact even as his velocity dips. 

10. Tyler O’Neill, OF 

2023: 0.3 bWAR/0.6 fWAR
2024: 2.6 bWAR/2.5 fWAR 

Green Light: It was only three years ago that O’Neill finished eighth in MVP voting, and this year provided a reminder of what’s still in the tank when his body is cooperating. He hit 32% better than league average while zapping the power back into his bat. After slugging .392 in 2022 and .403 in 2023 in St. Louis, a healthier first season in Boston yielded a .511 slugging percentage. He finished the year with 31 homers, the highest walk rate of his career and 113 games played — his most since his breakout 2021 season. 

Red Light: He is a bit of a baseball conundrum. One of the game’s most volatile talents, his career-best walk rate also came with an abysmal 33.6% strikeout rate. He can look like a top 10 offensive force one month and replacement level the next. He is no longer the Gold Glove outfielder he was a few years ago, but he’s only 29 and his power is still prodigious when he’s right. Can he stay healthy long enough to tap into it consistently? 

11. Joc Pederson, DH 

2023: 0.6 bWAR/0.7 fWAR
2024: 2.9 bWAR/3.0 fWAR

Green Light: On a rate basis, Pederson quietly put together the best offensive season of his 11-year career. It was really similar to his 2022 All-Star season in San Francisco, except he reached base more often and punished offspeed pitches more regularly. It was also a massive step forward from his 2023 season. Pederson finished the year with the fourth-highest year-over-year jump in slugging percentage among all qualified batters. He was one of just 10 hitters to post an OPS over .900 in at least 400 plate appearances. 

Red Light: His outfield days are probably behind him, and he doesn’t hit lefties. That will limit his suitors, but he demonstrated he can still be a massive offensive boost to a team in need of help against right-handed pitching with a DH spot open. 

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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