Author: Rowan Kavner

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Jazz Chisholm Jr. considers Luis Arráez one of the greatest human beings he has ever met. The two grew to be close friends after Arráez was traded from Minnesota to Miami before the start of last season, hanging out not only on the team plane and bus but also off the field, going out to eat and often spending off days together. 

So, it’s no surprise that May 3 was especially painful for the Marlins center fielder.

In the days that followed the trade that sent Arráez from the sinking Marlins cross-country to the Padres — a move that signaled yet another rebuild likely to come in Miami — it still hadn’t fully sunk in for Chisholm that his friend was gone, mostly because they hadn’t stopped communicating. 

“We still talk every day,” Chisholm told FOX Sports last week, three days after the move that brought reliever Woo-Suk Go and three prospects to Miami. “We’re just talking every day, just like, we can’t believe it happened. But it is what it is right now.”

Chisholm credits the players and staff around him in Miami for keeping the spirits up in the locker room, but the positivity hasn’t prevented a seemingly never-ending nosedive or speculation about who might go next from a Marlins team that was coming off its first full-season postseason appearance in 20 years, led by the National League Manager of the Year. 

The early October euphoria lasted all of a couple weeks. 

Twelve days after getting swept by the Phillies in the wild-card round, the person who orchestrated Miami’s elusive postseason berth was shockingly out. Reports emerged that Kim Ng, the first woman to serve as a Major League Baseball general manager, had declined her mutual option to remain with the team after the Marlins planned to hire a president of baseball operations above her. 

Weeks later, the Marlins tabbed their new head of baseball operations in Peter Bendix, a longtime executive for a Rays franchise renowned for its robust player development factory. Tampa Bay’s ability to consistently churn out winning teams on a low payroll drew Miami’s attention — and signaled the likely overhaul to come after poaching Bendix. 

The Marlins did virtually nothing to bolster their roster this past offseason, signing just one free agent to a major-league deal (for one year and $5 million). The recipient, Tim Anderson, entered this week with the fourth-worst OPS in the majors among players with at least 100 plate appearances. The lack of spending, a regression to the mean for a Marlins group that won 84 games last year despite a minus-57 run differential and injuries throughout the rotation — the area of the team that provided the most reason for optimism — combined for calamity. 

The spiral began immediately. The Marlins didn’t secure their first win until their 10th game of the year. By then, while already playing without injured starting pitchers Sandy Alcántara, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera, the team had announced that last year’s breakout rookie Eury Pérez would need Tommy John surgery. 

“Losers will say, ‘Here we go again,'” Skip Schumaker told FOX Sports. “I don’t want the complaining culture. That’s not who we are. Injuries happen.”

In a short period of time in Miami, the second-year manager worked diligently to craft a culture built on positivity and growth. He garnered respect both within the clubhouse and around the league as he turned the Marlins’ fortunes around last year with a 15-win year-over-year-improvement.

This year, though, the results haven’t improved from the early slide. At 9-24, seeing an opportunity to bolster what is widely considered one of the weakest farm systems in the sport — one that has consistently failed to develop offensive talents — Bendix effectively threw in the towel on this season by dealing away his best hitter. 

“It was the type of deal that we were worried wasn’t going to be there if we waited,” Bendix told reporters after paying down Arráez’s 2024 salary to send him to the Padres and secure a package of minor-leaguers headlined by Dillon Head, a 19-year-old outfielder selected in the first round last season. “The fact is that we’re unlikely to make the playoffs this year, and trading that for future value seems like the right thing for this organization right now.”

None of the players the Marlins received are considered top-100 talents, but MLB Pipeline already ranks all three prospects the Padres parted with — outfielders Head and Jakob Marsee and infielder Nathan Martorella — among the top 11 prospects in Miami’s system. It was an understandable move. Of course, that doesn’t ease the sting for Marlins fans hoping to build off last year’s success or for the Miami players who had grown close to Arráez, a back-to-back batting champ who was universally adored in the clubhouse. 

Schumaker could sense the initial daze that enveloped the clubhouse. One Marlins player described it like losing a brother. After Arráez’s sudden departure, the skipper tried to further instill his message to Marlins players through conversations both individually and in small groups about being professional and maintaining focus. 

“The game doesn’t stop for anybody,” Schumaker said. 

It’s a line that multiple players echoed to FOX Sports when asked about moving on from the Arráez shock. 

“The goal of a coach or a manager is to get them confidence and swag going into the game, into this jungle you’re about to play in, right?” Schumaker told FOX Sports. “This is a high-pressure situation. How do you keep building them up every single day? When you’re getting your butt kicked early in the season, that is the real challenge for the coach, because it’s easy to come in when you’re 20-8. It’s tough when you’re 8-20. But I think if you have a player see you sweat, that’s when they can see right through you. They won’t see me sweat.”

On a young team, Schumaker has some veterans to help deliver a similar message. On the hitting side, Josh Bell stepped up quickly as a stabilizing voice. On his first day with the team last year, the deadline acquisition spoke up in the hitters’ meeting about what he thought the Marlins’ identity should be. Bell, who has played for four different teams the past two years, is in a contract year. 

The biggest leader on the pitching side is under contract through at least 2026, but he isn’t taking the mound for a while. Still, as Alcántara recovers from Tommy John surgery, he remains present. The 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner was on the Marlins’ recent road trip to Oakland and Los Angeles and plans to continue to travel with the team throughout the year. 

He was initially a mentor for Pérez, the 21-year-old Dominican sensation who is now out for the year, but Miami still values Alcántara’s leadership, and the seven-year vet wants to be around to answer questions other young pitchers might have. Plus, being on the road allows him to rehab with the major-league trainers rather than traveling back and forth from Jupiter, Florida. Eight months after his procedure, Alcántara is now throwing out to 90 feet. He has not ruled out a return before season’s end. 

Last year, after throwing his final pitch on Sept. 3, he put off surgery until after the season so that he could remain with the club in October. He celebrated the team’s successes and attended both postseason games in Philadelphia, as frustrating and difficult as it was not to contribute. 

“I’m the guy who always likes to compete,” Alcántara told FOX Sports. “When that happened to me, my heart broke, because I know myself. I know what I can do out there.”

Like others, Alcántara, who is under contract for at least the next three years, has tried to stay positive through the team’s precipitous fall and the likely fire-sale ahead. He knows there are elements out of his control.  

“I think I‘m a strong man,” he said. “Being the only player who was here since 2018, just got to be more patient, because I can’t make the decision to tell them that we need to sign Giancarlo Stanton or Aaron Judge. We’re here to play baseball, man.” 

Alcántara represents one of the few positives to come out of the Marlins’ most recent attempted rebuild. From 2017 to 2019, they traded away All-Stars Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto. The deal for Ozuna was the only one to yield long-term value, bringing in Alcántara and Zac Gallen, who was then dealt for Chisholm, who could soon be part of the next wave of trades. Chisholm has tried to avoid the rumor mill by stopping himself from logging onto Instagram, X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok. 

“I don’t want to think about it,” Chisholm said. “I just want to be here and play ball with my boys.”

That is easier for him than most. 

Chisholm, who is under team control through 2026, said he is rarely on his phone in the first place. 

“The hard part is that right now I just want to go on my phone and talk to Luis,” Chisholm said last week. “So, it’s hard to not go and see a message from my mom or my sister saying, ‘Hey, you getting traded here? I saw this say you’re about to get traded, or you just got traded to this place.’ I’m like, ‘I’m still sitting here.'”

To this point, Chisholm said he hasn’t heard anything of substance. He has maintained his joy at the ballpark despite the team’s woeful struggles. Through 43 games last year, the Marlins had 22 wins. They had half that through 43 games this year. 

“The team’s record is what it is right now,” Bendix said. 

Because of that, there’s reason to believe the wheeling and dealing is just beginning. Despite the Marlins’ 12-32 record, they have a number of intriguing young starters on the mound who could dramatically impact a contending team at or before the deadline. 

Jesús Luzardo, a 26-year-old left-hander who struck out 208 batters last year, is now back from the injured list. Like Chisholm, his final year of arbitration is not until 2026, which could yield a significant return. Fellow 26-year-old starters Garrett and Cabrera are also back from injury and are under team control through 2028. 

Then there’s closer Tanner Scott, one of the few members of the Marlins roster in a contract year. The 29-year-old lefty, who led all NL relievers in strikeouts last year, has also done his best not to think too far ahead or allow rumors to impact his psyche. It helps that Scott welcomed his son to the family last September, when the Marlins were making their late playoff push. It’s easier to leave baseball behind when he’s with his child. 

“When I go home, I don’t think about it,” Scott said. “I talk to my family and that’s about it. I don’t really think about anything baseball related. I show up the next day and go from there.”

That’s all Marlins players can do right now as they attempt to right the ship amid the uncertainty ahead. Even Schumaker’s days in Miami could be numbered. USA Today reported last month that the reigning NL Manager of the Year got the Marlins to void the club option on his contract next season, potentially setting the scene for his departure this offseason. It seems obvious after last year’s triumph that he had a different vision for Miami’s future. 

For now, though, the game doesn’t stop. 

“We have a job to do,” Schumaker said. “Let’s try to figure this thing out.” 

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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The Twins are back within striking distance in the American League Central, the Blue Jays are sinking in the East, and A.J. Preller has wasted no time adding more pieces to the Padres in an effort to compete now. 

This week’s buy or sell looks at the best rotation and offense in baseball, the early MVP and Cy Young favorites, how the early Luis Arráez trade shakes up the contenders in the National League West and more. 

1. The Twins will come back to win the AL Central

Verdict: Buy 

The Twins recently rattled off a 12-game winning streak that was their longest since the 1991 club won 15 straight. Did they get to play the White Sox in half of those games? Yes. Yes, they did. But the stretch of success seemed to get the bats going in a needed way, and Minnesota has more recently picked up series wins against much more competitive clubs in the Red Sox and Mariners. The rally sausage has no quit in it, and neither does a Twins team that is starting to resemble the group many expected to see — an important development while they’re missing Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton. 

Carlos Correa and Jhoan Duran are now back in action, and they should only get better once Lewis is added back into the fold sometime this summer. Meanwhile, the offenses of the Guardians — who are now without Steven Kwan — and the Royals have slowed down, allowing Minnesota to get within 2.5 games of the division lead. It’s a remarkably quick turnaround for a Twins team that started the year 7-13, but the depth of the offense is starting to show. Over the past 15 days, the Twins have the best offense in the American League, with seven different players tallying an OPS over .800 in at least 30 at-bats. 

2. The Phillies will hold off the Braves in the NL East

Verdict: Hold

It wasn’t that long ago we were wondering what was wrong with the offense in Philadelphia. That’s no longer the case. Alec Bohm is in the midst of a breakout season, Trea Turner looked much more like himself than he did at the start of last year with a .343 average and 10 steals before hitting the injured list, and Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott and J.T. Realmuto have all started to catch fire after a slow start. The Phillies are now tied for the second-highest OPS in the sport and have now scored the fourth-most runs in the majors. 

But it’s the rotation that provides the most optimism to believe the Phillies at least have a chance to hold off the Braves this year. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola always provide a high floor, but the work of reigning NL Pitcher of the Month Ranger Suárez gives the Phillies a trio that can compete with any in baseball. There are so many arms producing in the rotation that Spencer Turnbull, who had a 1.67 ERA through his first six starts, had to be bumped to the bullpen with Taijuan Walker now back in action. The Phillies at least have an argument for the best rotation in the sport. 

I’m not ready to definitively say I think they’ll win the division. They’ve had a soft schedule to start the year, and the Braves’ bats will get going at some point. But I’m at least starting to believe it’s possible, which wasn’t the case a couple of weeks ago. 

3. Aaron Judge’s slow start will keep him out of the MVP race 

Verdict: Sell 

Don’t look now, but after doubling twice and homering on Wednesday, Judge now leads the Yankees in extra-base hits, is slugging north of .792 in May and has his OPS up to .844 on the year — a number that trails only Juan Soto for the highest mark among qualified Yankees players. His hard-hit rates are starting to creep back up to normal levels, right there at the top among the best in the sport. 

Judge is only three homers off the American League lead and one behind Soto as the Yankees sluggers both have it going in the Bronx. Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. should remain among the top contenders for AL MVP honors, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Yankees’ two-headed monster battling it out for the award down the stretch. 

4. Shohei Ohtani should be the NL MVP favorite right now 

Verdict: Sell

Look, even by his standards, what Ohtani’s doing offensively right now is absurd. I mean, just look at this. Each of the Dodgers‘ 10 hardest-hit balls of the year have come off Ohtani’s bat. He leads the majors in hits, doubles, batting average, extra-base hits, total bases, slugging and OPS. The power to all fields is especially remarkable considering he underwent major elbow surgery less than eight months ago. But, considering he’ll only be hitting this year, his teammate has to be the NL MVP favorite right now for the overall value he’s providing to the Dodgers. 

Mookie Betts has the highest on-base percentage in the majors — he has 12 more walks than strikeouts this year — and an OPS over 1.000 while playing shortstop full-time for the first time in his career at 31 years old — and doing it remarkably well. It shouldn’t come as a huge surprise, then, that he leads the majors in wins above replacement. While Betts’ bat has cooled a bit from his blistering start, he has still done enough at this point to be the top contender for the award. I mentioned the possibility that the AL MVP will come down to the Yankees’ top duo down the stretch, but that’s even more likely for the Dodgers’ duo in the NL. 

Speaking of which …

5. MLB’s best offense is in Los Angeles

Verdict: Buy  

As just mentioned, the two NL MVP favorites right now are both in the same lineup. That’s before getting to Freddie Freeman — who has the fourth-highest OBP in the majors behind only Betts, Ohtani and Juan Soto — but the lineup goes far beyond the vaunted trio at the top. Will Smith is hitting .331. Max Muncy is slugging .556. Newcomer Teoscar Hernández already has 10 home runs and leads the team with 29 RBIs. Rookie Andy Pages‘ immediate spark has completely changed the look of the bottom of the lineup. 

Five of MLB’s top 19 RBI leaders play for the Dodgers, and their offense leads the majors in every slash line category. The Dodgers sport a .808 OPS as a team at a time when no other club is above .750. As previously mentioned, I’d expect the Braves to get going at some point, and the Orioles — who are outhomering the Dodgers — are oozing offensive talent, but right now there’s no question about the top offense in the sport. 

6. The Mariners’ surging rotation is the best in baseball

Verdict: Buy 

As sensational as Boston’s rotation has been all year, I’d still tab Seattle’s as baseball’s best. Though the Twins got to them a bit this week, Mariners starting pitchers still boast the lowest ERA in the sport over the past 30 days, and now they’re about to add Bryan Woo back into the fold. Until Bryce Miller surrendered four runs in six innings on Sunday, Mariners starters had gone 21 straight games allowing two earned runs or fewer, which was tied for the second-longest streak in MLB history. 

The individual performances are all staggering: George Kirby has 45 strikeouts and only five walks. Logan Gilbert ranks in the top five in the majors in ERA (1.69), WHIP (0.79) and batting average against (.152). Miller also sports a WHIP under 1.00, while Luis Castillo has a 1.93 ERA over his past five starts. There are other deep rotations — the Phillies, Red Sox and Royals have all been sensational — but I see Seattle sustaining its starting pitching success better than any group in the majors. 

7. One of April’s Pitchers of the Month will win the Cy Young 

Verdict: Sell 

José Berríos‘ 1.44 ERA in March and April came with a 4.01 FIP that brought something of a red flag to the stellar stretch. Still, he had not allowed more than two runs in any of his first seven starts of the year and was providing length to a pitching staff that needed it, going at least six innings in six of those seven starts. Well, things came crashing down Tuesday, when the Phillies tagged him for eight runs in 3.2 innings. The peripherals right now are troubling, particularly a hard-hit rate that’s the highest of his career and an expected ERA close to 5.00. It’ll be interesting to see if he can still find a way to continue his early-season success — the Blue Jays certainly need it — but it’s hard to count on that happening. 

It’s much easier to believe right now in Ranger Suárez — just look at the difference in their Statcast pages — who’s allowing almost no hard contact while sporting the lowest WHIP among all qualified starters (0.72) and surrendering just six walks over his first 47 innings. Still, he pitches in a rotation with ace Zack Wheeler, who has looked more and more terrific as the year has progressed. Suárez is a vital piece in the Phillies’ standout rotation, and his success has played an important part in Philadelphia’s placement atop the NL East, but I have more confidence in Wheeler sustaining that success. The way that Wheeler, Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease are racking up strikeouts, and the way that Shōta Imanaga is transitioning effortlessly to MLB action, there are too many other likely Cy Young candidates. 

8. The Blue Jays will finish last in the AL East  

Verdict: Buy 

Two years ago, the Blue Jays featured one of the most feared lineups in the sport but couldn’t pitch reliably. Last year, they had one of baseball’s top rotations but couldn’t hit. Now, they can’t do either. Their offense, which is being carried by Danny Jansen, Davis Schneider and Justin Turner, ranks in the bottom five in baseball in home runs, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting around league average, while Bo Bichette (.513 OPS) and George Springer (.574) are hitting far worse than that. 

The pitching staff, meanwhile, has a 4.64 ERA as a group, is surrendering the highest hard-hit rate in the majors and is tied for the MLB lead in home runs allowed. It feels like a bit of a miracle that the Blue Jays are only three games under .500. But in their division, that’s not going to cut it. The rest of the East is too good, and they’ve burned my belief over the past few years enough that I’m close to sticking a fork in them. 

9. The Luis Arráez trade makes the Padres a contender 

Verdict: Buy

There’s a lot of debate about how much Arráez — whose value derives entirely from his contact skills — is really worth to a team. He doesn’t walk much or run fast. He can play the right side of the infield, but he won’t provide much help there, and his inability to slug makes him an atypical designated hitter. 

But, man, those contact skills are elite. 

With Manny Machado back at third base, the Padres could afford to add another somewhat full-time DH — at-bats that no longer need to go to Eguy Rosario, Graham Pauley or Tyler Wade. Arráez, a back-to-back batting champion who has hit above league average every season and sports an OPS over .800 since the start of the 2022 season, represents a clear upgrade for an offense that just sent one of the three best left-handed hitters in baseball to New York this offseason. 

There are still questions in San Diego, particularly in a thin rotation, but there is no doubting the firepower of this offensive group, which suddenly looks a lot deeper now. I don’t envision the Padres challenging the Dodgers for the top spot in the West, but second place certainly seems within reach. And, as San Diego demonstrated in 2022 and the D-backs displayed last year, that can be enough to make some noise. 

10. The D-backs’ bullpen will determine whether they make the playoffs 

Verdict: Sell

While it will certainly play a role — the bullpen ranks in the bottom 10 in ERA, strikeouts per nine and strikeout-to-walk ratio, and the team could have done more to address the deficiency this offseason — the group at least got Paul Sewald back earlier this week. As last year’s Sewald addition demonstrated, they could add someone there at the deadline if they’re still in the hunt. 

Whether they’re contending at that time will come down primarily to the growth (or lack thereof) of Arizona’s young standouts. Corbin Carroll’s OPS is .567 on the year, and his batting average was under .200 at the start of last weekend. He is striking out less and walking more, but it appears to be at the expense of doing damage. He had lost the ability to hit the ball hard to start the year, though there have been some encouraging signs over the past week. He laced a single 109.2 mph off the bat Sunday for the hardest-hit ball of that game and knocked in five runs Tuesday, including a home run with a 104.3 mph exit velo. So far, Ketel Marte, Christian Walker and Joc Pederson have carried the offense. They’ll need more from Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno to recapture last year’s magic. 

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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LOS ANGELES — While Sunday served as a statement about the Dodgers‘ standing atop baseball’s hierarchy, Monday presents a reminder of why their best still could be ahead. 

After finishing off an emphatic three-game sweep of the Braves, the Dodgers have now won 11 of their past 13 games and extended their National League West lead to 5.5 games, jumped out to a 103-win pace — and they’ve done it all without their typical cast of stars in the rotation. On Monday, they’ll get one back as Walker Buehler returns to a big-league mound for the first time in 22 months. 

“Health-wise, I feel great now, it’s just kind of getting all the rhythm back,” Buehler said ahead of his first start since June 2022. “I think big-league game, big-league environment, will definitely help me in terms of hopefully a little velocity, but I think more than anything the tempo and the delivery works better when you’re kind of amped up a little bit.”

Buehler’s fastball velocity got up to 96 mph while at Triple-A, though he sat closer to 93-94. Some shaky command led to a 4.86 ERA through his first five rehab outings, but the Dodgers deemed him ready to return after he bounced back to hold the Salt Lake Bees to one run in five innings on April 30 in his sixth and final rehab appearance. 

While he checked all the boxes necessary to return, he found it impossible to muster the adrenaline he would typically get before a major-league game — the kind he had channeled so well over the past six years as he developed a reputation as one of baseball’s elite big-game performers. 

“To be completely frank with you, there’s not a whole lot of that for me down there [in the minors],” Buehler said. “I wish there was. I wish it was easier for me to get going, and I wish it didn’t sound so s-ty to say that, but I think getting the adrenaline of pitching in the big leagues is something I’ve been looking for for a long time.”

That wait will end Monday when Buehler faces the Marlins, 20 months after undergoing his second career Tommy John surgery. 

In 2021, he averaged 95.3 mph on his four-seamer when he went 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA and finished fourth in Cy Young voting. A year later, his velocity again sat in the mid-90s, but he didn’t look right as he battled both his mechanics and his health over 12 troubling starts before undergoing UCL and flexor tendon repairs. 

Manager Dave Roberts is tempering expectations in Buehler’s first major-league start in 696 days, but he expects Buehler’s velocity “will be where it needs to be” with tens of thousands of Dodgers fans set to watch the two-time All-Star on Monday.

“I think leading up to the surgery he was still kind of trying to get through things, so I think body-wise, arm-wise, he’s in a much better spot,” Roberts said. “As far as kind of the throw characteristics and all that stuff, I think he’s in a good spot. I really do. But you don’t really know until you see him out there against major league hitters.”

What comes next is a bit of a mystery as Buehler attempts to accomplish what few All-Star starters have before — returning to an elite level of play after a second Tommy John surgery. 

Originally, he hoped his comeback would take place last year. Buehler made one rehab start at Triple-A last September, just a year removed from his procedure, in an attempt to help ahead of the postseason. But he wasn’t bouncing back the way he hoped and ultimately turned his attention to 2024. 

After being slow-played this spring, Buehler insisted his recovery hadn’t been compromised. The Dodgers have not yet revealed a specific innings limit in what will be a contract year for the former ace, but knowing he would likely be on some sort of workload limit, he structured his season so he would be available at year’s end and avoid a start-and-stop situation. 

“I think that’s going to be open-ended or read and react,” Roberts said. “Obviously his health is most important going forward, and so it could be a situation where from Monday onward he makes every start. It could be a time where he might need to take a blow. I just don’t know right now. It’s going to be kind of contingent on how he’s feeling, for the most part.”

Whatever Buehler can provide will be additive, but he no longer needs to be the workhouse he once was. The same goes for Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May, who could provide more assistance in the rotation later this year. 

Led by Tyler Glasnow, who recorded his third double-digit strikeout game of the year Saturday, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who’s coming off back-to-back scoreless outings, Dodger starters have amassed a 2.03 ERA over their past 13 games. Against a loaded Braves lineup, Glasnow, Gavin Stone and James Paxton combined to allow four earned runs over 19.2 innings. 

Roberts was careful not to make too much of the Dodgers’ sweep, instead expressing how evenly matched he still believes the two teams are, but he did glean something from the trouncing, which added to the Dodgers’ MLB-best run differential. 

“I think the thing that it speaks to is if we pitch well, we can keep any team at bay,” Roberts said. “With our offense, every game is winnable.” 

Paced by MLB’s OPS leaders in Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani — who homered twice Sunday, three times in the series and 10 times in his first 35 games with the Dodgers — and sparked by rookie prospect Andy Pages, whose consistent production has stabilized the bottom of the lineup, the Dodgers’ offense has scored more runs than any team in baseball and now leads the majors in every slash line category as it starts to separate itself from the rest of the league. 

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How are your preseason Rookie of the Year picks looking? 

After a full month of play, we can begin to assess which young players are making the most significant impact. 

Below are FOX Sports’ first rookie power rankings of the season, which we’ll continue to update after each month. 

Honorable mention: Andy Pages (OF, Los Angeles Dodgers)

Pages’ power has changed the look of the bottom of a Dodgers lineup that desperately needed the boost. He has earned a regular role in the outfield since his debut on April 16 by amassing a top-five slugging percentage and OPS among all rookies with at least 50 at-bats. His smaller sample size compared to other rookies on this list is really the only reason he sits outside the top 10, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him move up the charts quickly if he continues to make this kind of impact. 

10. Jacob Young (OF, Washington Nationals)

Young flies under the radar on a Nationals team teeming with top outfield prospects, but his 12 steals in 22 games this year (and 25 steals without being caught stealing since his debut last year) should start to put him on the map. Young is hitting .377 over his last 15 starts and went 8-for-16 with six steals during the Nats’ four-game sweep of the Marlins this past weekend. The impact of his speed has been profound — after that sweep, Young ranked in the top three among all rookie position players in both Baseball-Reference’s and FanGraphs’ version of WAR — and it’ll be interesting to see what the Nats do once Victor Robles is back. 

9. Jackson Merrill (OF, San Diego Padres) 

Merrill entered this year as one of the top shortstop prospects in baseball, but the Padres needed outfield help, so the 20-year-old debuted in center field — a position he had never played professionally after getting selected in the first round in 2021 — and joined Ken Griffey Jr. and Andruw Jones as the only players in the past 50 years to start on Opening Day in center field before turning 21. Despite playing above Double-A for the first time in his career, Merrill hasn’t looked out of place on defense or at the plate, where he’s consistently hitting the ball hard, rarely whiffing and is tied for the lead in hits among all rookies. While he hasn’t looked quite the same since dealing with groin tightness last week, he demonstrated with a .333 batting average over his first 20 career games that he belongs. 

8. Evan Carter (OF, Texas Rangers)   

Carter’s extraordinary debut last year didnt seem sustainable — he had a 1.058 OPS and MLB’s lowest chase rate in 23 regular-season games, then reached base in a record 17 straight games to begin his postseason career — and the start to his follow-up campaign has been more solid than spectacular. Carter is still mashing righties this year (.869 OPS, five homers), but he’s not getting on base or walking as often, and his small-sample struggles against lefties (1-for-24 with 12 strikeouts and two walks since debuting last year) have continued, which have led to him platooning. Still, there should be better days ahead for rookies Carter and Wyatt Langford in Texas. 

7. Masyn Winn (SS, St. Louis Cardinals) 

While Winn and his 80-grade arm make it easy to project him becoming an above-average defensive shortstop, it’s his offense that has been the most pleasant surprise to begin the 2024 season. The power Wynn flashed last year at Triple-A hasn’t yet carried over, but his .304 batting average and .785 OPS are a massive step forward from the .172 average and .467 OPS he had in 37 games last year. Once on base, he becomes an instant threat with his speed. Winn entered Tuesday tied for the lead in bWAR among all rookies. 

6. Michael Busch (1B, Chicago Cubs) 

Busch leads all Cubs players with six homers — he recorded a home run in five straight games from April 10-15 — and is tied for the lead among all rookies in the category. After jumping out to a 1.002 OPS through his first 20 games of the year, however, an elevated strikeout rate has brought him back down to earth over the past 10 days. But his ability to slug brought a crucial element to a Cubs club that desperately needed more corner infield pop, and his exceptional start alone is worthy of placement on this top 10. 

5. Wilyer Abreu (OF, Boston Red Sox) 

When former Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom traded catcher Christian Vazquez to the Astros at the deadline in 2022 for Abreu and infielder Enmanuel Valdez, it was the latter who was the more highly regarded of the two prospects. But both of them are now up with the big-league club, and Abreu is demonstrating it’s not always the elite prospects who make the greatest impacts. Abreu ranks in the top three among all rookie position players in both bWAR and fWAR. He was sensational in 28 games with the Red Sox last year (132 OPS+), and has looked just as terrific early this year (135 OPS+), hitting for both contact and power, playing strong defense in the corner outfield, stealing bases and establishing his place in the heart of the Boston order. 

4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP, Los Angeles Dodgers) 

Things could only trend up for Yamamoto after his abysmal debut — and they have. Since allowing five runs in one inning against the Padres in Korea, Yamamoto has a 2.00 ERA, 35 strikeouts and five walks over his past five starts. The lack of command with his four-seamer and the amount of hard contact he has allowed have been surprising, but his ability to miss bats with his secondaries is evident. His splitter in particular has been almost untouchable, and he appears to be turning a corner. 

3. Colton Cowser (OF, Baltimore Orioles) 

The Orioles possess such an embarrassment of riches among their upper levels that it felt inevitable at least one of their rookies would make a significant leap forward. Cowser is taking that jump behind a more aggressive approach in the zone. Baltimore can stomach his 33.7% strikeout rate when he’s running a 52.2% hard-hit rate and leading all qualified rookies in slugging, OPS and RBIs (and is also tied for the lead in homers and doubles). Cowser ranks eighth overall in OPS among all players with at least 70 plate appearances this year, though his hot start has cooled off some. 

2. Jared Jones (SP, Pittsburgh Pirates) 

It’s not a surprise that a Pirates pitcher is among the best rookies in baseball this year. It is a surprise that it’s not Paul Skenes (at least not yet, as we eagerly await his arrival). Jones has drawn comparisons to Spencer Strider for a fastball/slider combo that has flummoxed opponents. He fills the zone with his high velocity, which can make him prone to homers and hard contact, but man, that Statcast page is RED. Jones has 42 strikeouts and only five walks over his first six starts, good for the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of any rookie starter, and has logged the highest whiff rate among all qualified starters this year. 

1. Shota Imanaga (SP, Chicago Cubs) 

The numbers speak for themselves. Forget just rookies: Among all MLB starters who’ve thrown at least 20 innings this year, Imanaga ranks first in ERA (0.98) and third in strikeout-to-walk ratio (9.33) and WHIP (0.80). Though he has allowed a homer in each of his past two starts — which was an issue at times for him in Japan — he has thus far done an excellent job limiting damage. He didn’t allow a run in his first three starts, and he is the first starter since Dave Ferriss in 1945 to go 4-0 or better with a sub-1.00 ERA over his first five career games. 

Also considered: Keaton Winn (SP, San Francisco Giants), Blaze Alexander (SS, Arizona Diamondbacks), Mitchell Parker (SP, Washington Nationals), Ben Brown (SP, Chicago Cubs), Justin Slaten (RP, Boston Red Sox), Jung Hoo Lee (OF, San Francisco Giants), Max Meyer (SP, Miami Marlins), Bryan Hudson (RP, Milwaukee Brewers), Joey Ortiz (INF, Milwaukee Brewers), Jackson Chourio (OF, Milwaukee Brewers), José Buttó (SP, New York Mets), Davis Schneider (INF/OF, Toronto Blue Jays) 

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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There are many ways to tell what Gunnar Henderson means to the Orioles, from the hardware he took home last year as the American League Rookie of the Year, to his spot atop the lineup of the reigning AL East champs, to his team-leading eight homers, 20 runs and 20 RBIs through 23 games this season. 

But the best way might come from watching the updated swing of his teammate Jordan Westburg, whose increased production at the plate this season can be attributed in part to a mechanical change inspired by a player three years his junior. 

“I’m trying to blend Jordan Westburg and Gunnar Henderson,” Westburg explained. 

Westburg, one of multiple second-year players taking a tremendous leap forward in the Orioles’ lineup early this year, was among a procession of preternatural position-player prospects whose ascension through Baltimore’s minor-league ranks began at a time when the big-league club still dwelled in the cellar of the AL East and dreamed of a brighter future — one that is now becoming reality. 

The first wave of franchise-altering talent arrived in earnest in 2022, when Henderson and Adley Rutschman helped the Orioles make a 31-win year-over-year improvement and finish with a winning record for the first time in six seasons. Last year represented another gargantuan leap forward as more young talents contributed to the Orioles’ first division title in nine years, though the impact from the crop of position-player prospects wasn’t quite the same. 

Colton Cowser, the No. 5 overall pick in 2021, was called up in July and slashed just .115/.286/.148 in 26 games before spending the rest of the year mashing at Triple-A Norfolk. Heston Kjerstad, the No. 2 overall pick in 2020, was called up in mid-September and hit around league average in a brief 13-game stint to end the season. He made the American League Division Series roster but didn’t play in the series and began this year at Norfolk, where he homered 10 times in 21 games — one of which included a 10-RBI performance — before getting called up again earlier this week. 

“It’s part of your journey,” Kjerstad said. “You want everything ASAP, but that’s not life. You’ve got to sit back, be patient, and when your time comes be ready for it.”

That is what Westburg is doing now in his follow-up campaign. Westburg, the No. 30 overall pick in 2020, hit around league average over 68 games (54 starts) for the Orioles last season before recording two hits in nine at-bats in the ALDS. Westburg was at the plate when Baltimore’s season ended, striking out on three pitches from Rangers closer José Leclerc, who got him to whiff on a fastball in the zone, foul off a slider, then swing through a 98-mph fastball right down the middle. 

It’s a clip Westburg estimates he has seen about a million times. 

“There were some big scenarios where I didn’t come through last year that still eat away at me and drive me,” he told FOX Sports this week. 

So, this winter, he made a change. 

When the season ended, hitting coach Ryan Fuller sent Westburg a year-in-review report providing information about where the player excelled, where he struggled and what his averages were against different big-league pitchers. Westburg noticed he had room to grow against high velocity, so he went back and watched some of his at-bats against the flamethrowers he had faced. 

“It seemed like I just wasn’t syncing up right,” Westburg said. “I was getting beat at the top of the zone, and I know I’ve been able to hit it before.”

After some self-reflection, Westburg came to the conclusion that he was wiggling his bat too much when he began his load. As he worked out this offseason in Mississippi, he made a conscious effort to keep his bat head more still. Beyond that, he also looked around his clubhouse and thought about the players who were best at handling heat. He noticed they tended to stand more upright at the plate. 

Westburg told Fuller he wanted to begin incorporating some of Henderson’s setup at the plate — a remarkable example of the respect the superstar 22-year-old shortstop has already garnered from his teammates in his short time in the majors. 

“Gunnar’s up tall, super athletic in his stance but a little more tight with his hands, and I liked that,” Westburg explained. “I felt like I was almost too loose at times. With the barrel wiggle, it just wasn’t timing itself up. Whereas Gunnar, it always seems like he’s ready to hit.”

In addition to standing taller in his stance, Fuller said Westburg also moved his hands higher in an effort to be quicker into the zone and cover more of the plate. Though Westburg’s swing remains a constant work in progress, the early results from the changes are astounding. 

He is batting over .300 against fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed pitches. He has lowered his strikeout rate, increased his hard-hit rate almost 16 percentage points from last year and is hitting .364 against pitches of at least 95 mph after hitting .167 against those same pitches last season. 

“He made those changes on his own, but it lined up with what we saw just being a matchup-proof hitter,” Fuller said. “To see what he’s doing now, it gives us confidence, but it should give him the most confidence — because it was his idea.”

While Henderson and Rutschman have significantly raised the floor in Baltimore, it is the jump in production of the next wave of young contributors — a group featuring Westburg (.941 OPS) and Cowser (1.139) — that gives reason to believe the Orioles might possess the offensive depth to compete for a championship, especially if Kjerstad and top overall MLB prospect Jackson Holliday can add to the cause.  

As Orioles coaches are quick to point out, every player develops at a different pace and often requires weathering tough stretches — Henderson and Rutschman included. 

In 2022, Rutschman was hitting .143 after his first 15 games in the majors and didn’t hit his first home run until his 21st career game. Henderson enjoyed a much faster start, homering in his first career game and hitting 26% better than league average over a brief 34-game sample, but his growing pains came early in his follow-up season. Henderson was hitting just .170 and slugging .310 through 33 games last year before catching fire and finishing eighth in MVP voting. 

“The ability to make adjustments and then to keep their confidence was huge,” manager Brandon Hyde said. 

That is a through-line so far with the many highly-regarded prospects on the Baltimore roster — one that Holliday is working through now as the 20-year-old attempts to dig his way out of a 2-for-34 start to his career. As he adjusts to major-league competition, the rest of the Orioles lineup is picking the rookie up by obliterating the baseball. As a team, the Orioles rank first in average exit velocity, second in hard-hit rate and slugging percentage and third in OPS while jumping out to a 16-8 record. 

Those totals are driven up by Westburg, who ranks in the top 2% of the league in hard-hit rate, and Cowser, who is hitting the ball nearly 4 mph harder on average this year and has already hit a ball 6 mph harder this year than he did at any point last season. 

“Both those guys have just gotten more comfortable,” Kjerstad said. “Y’all are seeing now, those are the players we all knew they were capable of being. They’re great talents and they’re just scratching the surface of what’s to come for them.”

For both Cowser and Westburg, a second-year surge also meant relaxing the mind. 

Westburg said he no longer gets his identity lost in baseball the way he might have earlier in life. He is better able to separate his job — one he loves to do — from his personal happiness, which he attributes to his faith and finding purpose in something greater. He believes that clarity has made him a better player. 

“I think there’s freedom that comes with that that can then be translated onto the field,” Westburg told FOX Sports. “You handle the pressures more, you handle the anxieties more, you handle the failures more, they turn into more learning experiences than things that you’re going to get yourself down and think about all night.”

Cowser, meanwhile, took some time to decompress and reflect this offseason after struggling in his first taste of the majors last year. He went home to Houston, took trips to California, Oregon and Florida and traveled to a couple of weddings. The mental reset seemed to help. 

Feeling more comfortable with a year in the majors under his belt, Cowser is slugging .759 through 22 games this year — the highest mark of any major-leaguer with at least 50 at-bats this season. After going homerless in 61 at-bats last year, he has six in his first 58 at-bats of 2024. 

The newfound success required some sacrifice. 

After slugging .148 in 26 games as a rookie last year, he made a conscious effort this year to be more aggressive at the plate. That has led to an elevated strikeout rate and lower walk rate compared to last season, but it also has made him the most productive hitter on the team through the club’s first 24 games. 

“It’s not necessarily being overconfident, overzealous, I think it’s more or less remaining confident through the struggle,” Cowser told FOX Sports. “I think the process has been a lot better this year, taking things one pitch at a time especially and resetting myself, taking a deep breath, things like that between pitches.”

Like Westburg, Cowser also made a mechanical tweak. He created more space with his hands in an effort to adjust better to offspeed — though his jump in production is actually most evident in his production against fastballs this year (.440 with four home runs) compared to how he performed against them last season (.071, no homers, 14 strikeouts). 

Over the past two weeks, Cowser and Westburg gave the Orioles their first back-to-back Player of the Week honors since Eddie Murray won in consecutive weeks in September 1981. 

In the process, they’ve also raised the already sky-high ceiling in Baltimore for an Orioles team that looks ready to realize its massive potential. 

“It’s great to see that,” Kjerstad said, “and also coming up behind them, it’s like, ‘OK, if they can do it, I’ve played with them before, now it’s my turn to join them and help out.'”

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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Even the best teams in baseball have some sort of imperfection, one that might be more glaring now than it appeared when the season began. 

The Braves’ rotation, arguably the most daunting in baseball before the season, is no longer quite so formidable without Spencer Strider headlining the group. Despite Juan Soto’s brilliance, the Yankees still look mediocre offensively. The Rangers are patching their pitching staff together, while the Dodgers’ trouncing of the Mets on Sunday was a rare complete win for a team that has dealt with issues on both sides of the ball and dropped all three series on their recent homestand. 

Of course, it’s way too early to know if any of these teams’ biggest flaws will be fatal. All the aforementioned teams are still leading their respective divisions for a reason. 

But for the teams who’ve jumped out to a winning record, these shortcomings are at least worth monitoring:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Cleveland Guardians (16-6, 1st in AL Central)

Flaw: Frontline starting pitching 
What else? Quality of contact

The Guardians have the third highest-scoring offense and, even more surprisingly, rank fifth in slugging percentage. It’s a testament to the way this offense has produced — and a bit of a shock — that if we were to poke any holes in Cleveland’s terrific start, it would be with their starting pitching. Shane Bieber looked like one of the best pitchers in baseball through two starts before needing Tommy John surgery, and with Triston McKenzie struggling with his command (15 walks, 11 strikeouts through four starts), this is a team without an obvious ace. As a group, Cleveland starters have the sixth-lowest strikeout-to-walk ratio in the majors. 

The offense, however, has been soaring, guided by the bats of Josh Naylor (1.016 OPS) and Steven Kwan (.852). Still, this is a team with the third-lowest hard-hit rate and second-lowest barrel percentage in MLB. While more can be expected ahead from José Ramírez, it’ll be interesting to see if the Guardians can maintain this offensive pace against better competition (16 of their 22 games have come against teams under .500).  

Baltimore Orioles (14-7, T-1st in AL East)

Flaw: Relievers in front of Kimbrel
What Else? Starting depth 

Craig Kimbrel has looked like one of the best closers in baseball to start the year, yet the Orioles’ bullpen has racked up a 4.23 ERA, which says something about the rest of the group. Yennier Canó has a 1.55 WHIP. Mike Baumann’s is even higher at 1.71. Both are letting opponents hit .275 or better. Dillon Tate has more walks than strikeouts, and after a terrific start to the year, Keegan Akin, the team’s most-used reliever, has had a couple of shaky outings. 

As a team, the Orioles’ pitching staff is surrendering a lot of hard contact without generating many whiffs. And while Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez have looked like rotation headliners, the group behind them has taken its lumps and is feeling the absences of Kyle Bradish (UCL sprain), John Means (forearm strain) and Tyler Wells (elbow inflammation). Offensively, it’s hard to poke holes in a team with the third-highest OPS in the sport, but the young group does tend to chase and has struggled some against velocity. 

New York Yankees (15-8, T-1st in AL East)

Flaw: Non-Soto hitters
What else? Infield defense

It’s been an opportunistic and timely offense in recent wins — four runs in the ninth last Wednesday, five runs in the seventh last Friday, four runs in the fifth on Sunday — more than a good one. A middle-of-the-pack offensive group was probably not what the Yankees envisioned when they added Juan Soto. He has been exceptional, but Aaron Judge is hitting .174, Gleyber Torres has a .516 OPS, Anthony Rizzo hasn’t bounced back from a down year, and DJ LeMahieu is hurt. 

These are also reasons to believe the Yankees’ hot start could be even better (how long is Judge really going to run a .645 OPS?), but the offense is lacking consistency. Their .706 OPS entering Monday was almost identical to the .701 mark they posted last season. 

Meanwhile, the defense has committed the fourth-most errors in baseball. Anthony Volpe’s hot start has picked up the group both offensively and at shortstop, but the infield defense has graded out below average by most metrics at every other spot. That becomes more troublesome behind a bullpen that has struggled to miss bats. 

Kansas City Royals (13-9, 2nd in AL Central)

Flaw: Lineup/outfield depth 
What else? Beating good competition 

The Royals rank 12th overall in OPS, but Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Pérez and Vinnie Pasquantino have helped mask the inconsistencies throughout the bottom half of the order. The Royals have the lowest line-drive rate in baseball, and Kansas City outfielders collectively have the fourth-lowest OPS in the majors. They’re not getting any offensive production in center field, new right fielder Hunter Renfroe is hitting .164, and MJ Melendez has cooled off considerably after a blistering start. 

While the rotation has thrived early on, there are some issues in a bullpen that has the lowest strikeout rate in the majors. In addition, the Royals have gotten where they are primarily by beating up on lesser competition. They’re 3-6 against teams over .500, dropping both of their series to the Orioles and a series to the Mets. 

Boston Red Sox (13-10, 3rd in AL East)

Flaw: The defense 
What else? Swing and miss 

Beyond losing his bat, Trevor Story’s season-ending shoulder injury is a brutal blow to a team that has struggled up the middle defensively without him. The Red Sox have committed the most errors in the majors, with the majority coming from the fill-ins at shortstop and third base with Rafael Devers banged up for much of the year. 

Which gets to the other surprisingly poor part of this group to start the year: the unproductive offense. I don’t think anyone expected the rotation to stake the Red Sox to a winning record, but Boston starters have the lowest ERA in the majors while their hitters have the most strikeouts in the majors, rank 23rd in batting average and have the seventh-lowest OPS in baseball with runners in scoring position. Injuries haven’t helped. Not only has Devers been out, but he also collided with Tyler O’Neill, forcing Boston’s hottest hitter to the injured list. With Triston Casas also on the IL, this is a group that needs to get closer to being whole again to compete in baseball’s best division. 

Detroit Tigers (12-10, 3rd in AL Central)

Flaw: Lack of offensive star power 
What else? Lack of actual power

The Tigers have fallen back down to earth after their 6-1 start, unable to get much of anything going offensively. They’re the only team with a winning record and an OPS under .650 as a team, and they rank in the bottom six in baseball in every slash line category. The group as a whole has especially struggled to hit spin, ranking 27th in weighted on-base average against breaking balls. Kerry Carpenter is carrying the group and Riley Greene is getting on base at a high rate, but Spencer Torkelson is still looking for his first home run and it’s been a real struggle for Parker Meadows, Colt Keith and the young talents in the lineup. 

Toronto Blue Jays (12-10, 4th in AL East)

Flaw: Power outage
What else? Allowing plenty of power 

The Blue Jays have gone on a nice run lately despite their best hitters scuffling. Last year’s offensive troubles have only gotten worse. The Blue Jays rank 18th in slugging, 19th in OPS, 20th in home runs and 21st in batting average. Under the hood is just as concerning. Toronto has the third-lowest average exit velocity, the fifth-lowest hard-hit rate and the fifth-lowest expected slugging percentage in MLB. Justin Turner has been the best hitter on the team in the early going and a vital signing for an offense that needed the lift. 

The guys they need to rely on just haven’t gotten going. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting .226, while Bo Bichette (.641 OPS) and George Springer (.628) are both hitting below league average. While the Blue Jays have struggled to hit for power, they’ve surrendered plenty of it. Their pitchers have the highest hard-hit rate and barrel rate in baseball. It’s no surprise, then, that they’ve also allowed the most homers in MLB. While José Berríos looks terrific, Kevin Gausman’s struggles (0-2, 8.16 ERA) are concerning. His latest start was a step in the right direction. 

Texas Rangers (12-11, 1st in AL West)

Flaw: Pitching depth 
What else? Rookies yet to click 

The pitching staff has done a decent job of holding up considering the plethora of injuries that Texas had coming into the year and the lack of moves made to address the issue this winter. That said, the handful of additions have been helpful.  Kirby Yates and David Robertson have been vital pieces in the bullpen, and Michael Lorenzen had a couple useful starts despite control issues, but pitching is not exactly an area of strength for the team — at least not until Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle are back. Their lack of starting pitching depth will be tested even more now that Cody Bradford, who excelled through his first three starts, is out with a back issue. The injury prompted an early call-up of rookie Jack Leiter, a move that might have been a little premature and backfired. 

And speaking of rookies, the Rangers have two in the lineup that were among the preseason favorites to take home hardware this year. Neither has quite gotten going yet. Wyatt Langford is still searching for his first home run, while last year’s breakout star Evan Carter is hitting .211 in the early going. Really, the entire lineup outside of Adolis García and Marcus Semien has yet to produce to its potential, as the Rangers rank 12th in slugging and 13th in home runs. I’d expect that to pick up. 

Tampa Bay Rays (12-11, 5th in AL East)

Flaw: Bullpen 
What else? No pop at the plate 

While their starters have one of the best strikeout-to-walk ratios in the majors, their relievers have the worst. It’s one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year. The Rays’ bullpen has lacked control, posting the highest walk rate in the majors. But their relievers are also struggling to miss bats. Their bullpen has a bottom five strikeout rate and is tied for the MLB lead in home runs surrendered. 

The Rays haven’t been able to make up for the pitching deficiencies at the plate the way they might have last year. Missing Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe and Jonathan Aranda hasn’t helped a Rays offense that ranks in the bottom 10 in on-base percentage, slugging and OPS. Similar to the Blue Jays, the stars they’re relying upon most haven’t produced. Yandy Díaz (65 OPS+ and Randy Arozarena (40 OPS+) are both hitting considerably below league average. It might be about time to promote top prospect Junior Caminero.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Atlanta Braves (14-6, 1st in NL East)

Flaw: Rotation depth
What else? Fried’s slow start 

This is still probably the best team in baseball, but the rotation ranks 20th in ERA and 19th in both strikeout rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio. Normally, we could chalk this up to a weird early-season sample — coming into the year, this was arguably one of the scariest rotations in the sport — but with Strider out, it feels more glaring, especially considering Max Fried’s shaky start to the year. 

Fried hasn’t commanded the baseball the way he typically does, nor is he missing bats. His strikeout rate is about half of what it was last year, while his walk rate is nearly double. Through four starts, his lone good one came against Miami. Right now, the only pitcher stabilizing the rotation is converted reliever Reynaldo López. None of this is likely to prevent the Braves from winning the division, but with aspirations far beyond that, this could be a team looking for an ace at the deadline. 

Milwaukee Brewers (14-6, 1st in NL Central)

Flaw: Rotation depth 
What else? Production vs. LHP 

The Brewers are rolling to start the year, but the rotation behind ace Freddy Peralta doesn’t exactly strike fear in opponents. Brewers starting pitchers rank last in innings pitched, 25th in strikeouts per game and whiff rate, 23rd in WHIP, 22nd in batting average against and 21st in strikeout-to-walk ratio. 

Their offense has so significantly outproduced what many expected that it feels silly to nitpick anything there, but if we had to, they’ve performed rather poorly in an extremely small sample against southpaws. Brewers hitters have the fewest at-bats against lefties of any team, but they’re slashing .213/.307/.307 against them.

Philadelphia Phillies (14-8, 2nd in NL East)

Flaw: The offense 
What else? The bullpen 

On one hand, it could be viewed as encouraging that the Phillies are tied for the NL lead in wins despite their offense producing a  .709 OPS and their bullpen sporting the worst ERA in the majors. On the other … their offense is producing a .709 OPS and their bullpen has a 5.78 ERA. Even after beating up on the lowly Rockies and White Sox — averaging more than seven runs per game during a six-game winning streak — their 4.36 runs per game are tied with the Pirates for 15th in the majors. 

While Trea Turner is heating up, J.T. Realmuto, Bryson Stott and Nick Castellanos have all yet to get going. The outfield situation is particularly alarming, considering Castellanos currently has the fifth-lowest wRC+ among all qualified major-league hitters, while Johan Rojas has two extra-base hits and two RBIs on the year. At the back end of the bullpen, however, things have gone much better for José Alvarado since his five-run blowup on Opening Day. 

Chicago Cubs (13-9, 2nd in NL Central)

Flaw: Closer
What else? Pitching depth 

As a team, the Cubs’ 3.99 relief ERA is more medicore than terrible. But that number comes with a 5-for-11 mark in save opportunities. After converting 22 of 25 save chances last year, it has not been smooth sailing this season for Adbert Alzolay, who has already blown four saves and looks to have lost his role as closer for the time being. Héctor Neris picked up a save Saturday, but he has as many walks (seven) as strikeouts (seven) this year. Maybe Mark Leiter, who hasn’t allowed an earned run in 10.2 innings this year, will get the bulk of opportunities. 

Leiter and Keegan Thompson have lifted an otherwise pedestrian group that has played a considerable role in the Cubs’ 3-4 record in one-run games. The pitching staff as a whole hasn’t exactly thrived, with injuries playing a role. Cubs starters rank 21st in ERA, but Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon have combined to make two starts so far this year. Shota Imanaga (0.84 ERA) looks like an absolute stud, but Kyle Hendricks (12.00 ERA) has looked like the opposite of that. 

New York Mets (12-9, 3rd in NL East)

Flaw: The rotation’s command 
What else? A catching concern 

The rotation’s 3.91 ERA is a completely respectable mark. However, there’s some cause for concern under the hood. Mets starting pitchers have MLB’s highest walk rate, second worst strikeout-to-walk ratio and fourth-highest WHIP. Their FIP (4.10) and xFIP (4.64) are both much higher than their actual ERA. 

Now, those pitchers won’t have Francisco Álvarez behind the plate for the foreseeable future after he tore a ligament in his thumb this weekend. Beyond the power he provides at the plate, Álvarez is also one of baseball’s best pitch framers. 

Cincinnati Reds (12-9, 3rd in NL Central)

Flaw: Infielders not named Elly De La Cruz
What else? Beating good teams 

Injuries to Matt McLain and TJ Friedl threatened to take some of the wind out of the upstart Reds’ sails to begin the year, but Cincinnati still finds itself in a fine position in the Central. Still, this is not a group that has hit (.225/.311/.399) the way it is capable of doing, and it especially seems to be missing McLain’s bat. 

With Jonathan India, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Santiago Espinal all hitting under .200 (and Jeimer Candelario flirting with that line), the Reds rank 29th, 28th and 21st in OPS at second base, first base and third base, respectively. The infield defense has also graded out below average, and as a team the Reds are 4-8 against clubs that are .500 or better. 

Los Angeles Dodgers (13-11, 1st in NL West)

Flaw: Bottom of lineup 
What else? The bullpen 

The “big three” (really, “big four,” considering what Will Smith means to this offense) is largely doing what it was supposed to do, especially now that Freddie Freeman seemed to get back on track this weekend. Keep going down the lineup, however, and it gets significantly dicier. Chris Taylor’s hitting .051. Gavin Lux is hitting .148. Collectively, the Nos. 7-9 spots in the Dodgers’ order are hitting under .170 and rank 28th in OPS. 

As a team, the Dodgers have the second-most strikeouts, and their 70 strikeouts with runners in scoring position are 10 more than the Pirates. Beyond that, their bullpen ranks 20th in ERA and is struggling to find reliable leverage options beyond Evan Phillips and Daniel Hudson while they wait for Brusdar Graterol and Blake Treinen to return from injury.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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There’s no shortage of storylines in Atlanta for a Braves team moving forward without strikeout extraordinaire Spencer Strider — and coping for the loss with a major assist from a former reliever. 

This week’s buy/sell looks at the wave of successful moves from the bullpen to the rotation, offenses doing more (and less) than expected, a veteran pitcher breaking out, a young hitter making the leap to stardom, Mike Trout’s future in Anaheim, the (new?) worst team in baseball and more.  

1. Nationals SS CJ Abrams is becoming a star 

Verdict: Buy 

Abrams was a solid regular in 2023, accumulating 3.4 bWAR while swiping 47 bags. Now, he looks like a superstar in the making. After hitting 18 homers in 151 games last year, Abrams already has five in his first 15 games this season. With some added strength to his frame, he has gone from a league-average hitter to one of the best in baseball to start the season. While there is a plethora of budding stars at shortstop, from Bobby Witt Jr. to Gunnar Henderson to Elly De La Cruz, the only player at Abrams’ premium position with a higher slugging percentage or OPS than him is Mookie Betts. 

And it’s not flukey. 

Abrams is pummeling fastballs and spraying line drives across the field while posting an average exit velocity up almost 4 mph from last year. He’s still chasing at a high rate, but he’s often making contact when he does. His whiff rate is down, his walk rate is up, and his much-improved .295 batting average should actually be even higher based on expected statistics. The Nats’ leadoff man still has a lot of work to do to reach his defensive potential, but it’s worth the reminder that he’s still only 23 years old. All the tools are there for the former top prospect, and he’s starting to realize his massive potential. 

2. Mike Trout will be helping a different team by season’s end

Verdict: Sell 

As long as Trout is in Anaheim, and as long as the Angels‘ playoff drought continues, there will be questions about how long the generational talent will continue to stick with the only major-league team he has known. This spring, Trout said he has no intention of asking for a trade, though he would not rule out the possibility in the future. He has not been to the postseason since 2014, when the Angels were swept in three games. His experience in the World Baseball Classic only seemed to further flame his desire to play more competitive baseball. 

At the same time, he also called asking for a trade “the easy way out,” and it appears that loyalty and winning a championship specifically with the Angels team that drafted him 15 years ago would mean more. 

If the Angels manage to continue hovering around .500, I don’t see Trout asking out this year and I don’t see Arte Moreno making that kind of move to ship away the only star left in Anaheim. Talks will heat up if the Angels start to tank before the deadline, but even with Trout looking as good as he has at any point over the past few years, from his no-trade clause, to his luxury tax hit of more than $35 million per year for the next seven seasons, to his recent injury history, I’d still be surprised to see him on a new team at the deadline. 

3. The Ronel Blanco breakout is real

Verdict: Buy

With the Astros‘ bullpen steady racking up Ls, Blanco’s steady, lengthy performances continue to be a welcome sight for a Houston team that could use any good news right now. But how sustainable could it be for a 30-year-old who entered this year with a career 4.78 ERA? 

Well, I’m buying in. 

Blanco had starred in the minor leagues and in Dominican winter ball, so it’s not entirely out of nowhere, but it helps that this version of the right-hander offers something different. He made adjustments to his changeup, and he’s using the pitch three times as often this year. Opponents have yet to find an answer. His whiff rate is actually down from last year, but he’s pounding the zone and getting such weak contact that it works. Blanco, who has a 0.86 ERA, is holding opponents to a major-league best .090 batting average. He has allowed just six hits in 21 innings, aided by a no-hitter in his first outing of the year. 

4. The Brewers‘ offense really is this good 

Verdict: Sell 

Led by a legitimate star behind the plate in William Contreras, the Brewers’ offense deserves its props. It’s better than everyone thought. The dudes don’t chase. Contreras, Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins provide pop. Brice Turang and Sal Frelick bring speed. Top prospect Jackson Chourio provides a little of everything. It’s a team that can cause problems. 

I’m just not sold that their second-highest OPS in the sport is sustainable. 

Milwaukee is hitting an MLB-best .363 on ground balls, Contreras and Frelick are both running a BABIP over .400, and the Brewers as a team currently have the second-highest batting average on balls in play (and wOBA-xWOBA) in baseball, implying some luck involved and perhaps some regression ahead. I can buy the Adames bounce back, but I can’t buy Blake Perkins, Joey Ortiz, Turang and Frelick all hitting over .300 all year. With Christian Yelich dealing with back issues again after his majestic power surge to start the year, the group might fall at least a little back down to earth. 

5. The Phillies‘ offense should be concerned 

Verdict: Sell 

For the Phillies to supplant the Spencer Strider-less Braves in the NL East, they’ll need to get their offense going first. They currently rank 23rd in on-base percentage, 24th in OPS and have the same number of homers as the Guardians. However, we’ve seen some version of this before. Last year, when the Phillies finished with the sixth-highest OPS in the sport, this was the monthly breakdown:

March/April: .771
May: .681
June: .747
July: .728
August: .907
September: .747 

Their offense tends to be volatile, with a number of streaky hitters. Center field might be a problem, and Nick Castellanos having no extra-base hits through 65 at-bats is a bit alarming, but overall they’ve weathered the slow offensive start well, and I’d still expect to see the mercurial group get hot soon. 

6. The Braves are vulnerable after the Strider injury 

Verdict: Sell

Our Deesha Thosar wrote that Atlanta still might be the best team in the National League even without Strider. As crazy as it might be that a team can lose MLB’s strikeout king and still be the favorites, that’s how loaded this Braves roster is. They have the top offense in baseball in the early going — by far — and that’s with reigning MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. having hit only one home run. Even if the rotation continues to struggle, they can just out-mash teams, à la the Rangers. 

But the pitching staff might figure it out, too, despite a couple red flags beyond Strider’s injury. Coming off an injury-plagued 2023 season, Max Fried’s early struggles and diminished strikeout rate give me some pause, but he hasn’t lost his velocity and tends to figure things out (his highest ERA over the past four years was 3.04). Charlie Morton is coming off back-to-back stinkers and isn’t getting much swing and miss, which becomes a little more alarming at age 40. However, Reynaldo López is thriving, and with Bryce Elder and top prospects AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep waiting in the wings in the minors, there should be enough options to keep the Atlanta rotation afloat at least until the Braves learn more about what they have at the deadline. I’d still expect Atlanta to win the East.  

7. The reliever-to-starter pipeline can really work 

Verdict: Buy 

We saw last year with Seth Lugo — who finished his 2023 season, in which he made 26 starts, with a nearly identical ERA (3.57) to the one he had the year prior as a full-time reliever (3.60) — the rare veteran move from the bullpen to the rotation doesn’t need to bring with it growing pains. 

And, it’s becoming a little less rare. 

The aforementioned López in Atlanta and Jordan Hicks in San Francisco have been the best members of their respective rotations to start the season. At a time when throwing as hard as you can for as long as you can is the prevailing thought, both hard-throwing righties have scaled back the velocity they used in short spurts out of the bullpen to pace themselves for longer outings as starters. And it’s working. 

López has taken about 3 mph off his stuff from last year, is using more of his curveball, and has allowed just one run in his first 18 innings. Hicks’ velocity is down even further, but he said that affords him better control. The results are impossible to ignore. While his strikeout rate is down, so is his walk rate — by nearly half what it was last year. Hicks has upped the usage of his splitter, which is giving opponents problems. Both pitchers look like they’ve made the adjustments needed for a smooth transition. 

In López (0.50), Blanco (0.86), Lugo (1.05), Cody Bradford (1.40) and Hicks (1.57), five of the top 13 qualified starting ERA leaders were spending most of their time in the bullpen at some point in the previous year or two. 

8. The new-look Padres are bringing the vibes back to San Diego 

Verdict: Buy 

As I wrote in our late March roundtable, while I think the Padres and Giants will both be better this year, I expected San Diego to be the more legitimate NL West contender. There’s just too much talent there to have a repeat of last year, and there’s especially no way they could continue to be that bad in one-run games (9-23) again. 

Well, this new-look group appears to be bringing some different vibes. 

The Padres just took back-to-back series on the road against first-place teams in the Dodgers and Brewers and are 7-4 against teams over .500. Five of their 11 wins have come in comeback fashion, and they’ve consistently delivered with runners in scoring position. Jurickson Profar and rookie Jackson Merrill have solidified an outfield that needed the help — a remarkable feat for Merrill, a 20-year-old converted shortstop who had never played center field professionally before this year — Fernando Tatis Jr is back to mashing, Dylan Cease and Michael King look ready to lead the rotation, and there’s reason to believe things will look even better when Manny Machado’s elbow allows him to start playing the field again. 

They probably won’t topple the Dodgers, but this appears to be a team that will find ways to win more often than not, which is the opposite of last year’s group. 

9. Michael Busch will carry the Cubs‘ offense with Seiya Suzuki down 

Verdict: Sell 

Given the path to a full-time role that he didn’t have in Los Angeles, the top-100 prospect is taking advantage of the more regular opportunity being afforded to him in Chicago. Busch recently tied a franchise record with a homer in five straight games while beginning to realize his massive offensive potential. He is barreling the baseball with regularity and showcasing his tremendous plate discipline, leading all qualified Cubs hitters in every slash line category. 

After struggling in his first taste of the majors with the Dodgers last year, he is doing virtually everything better this go-around — chasing less, whiffing less, making more contact, hitting the ball harder with regularity, getting the ball in the air, utilizing his pull-side power and, perhaps most notably, mashing fastballs. 

But a player with an offensive profile that many have compared to Max Muncy’s can also be prone to strikeouts, and there will eventually need to be some adjustments made as pitchers gain more intel. Outside of Busch and the injured Suzuki, the rest of the Cubs’ lineup hasn’t produced much offensively. I expect Busch to continue to produce, but it might be a bit much to expect him to carry the group with this level of play in his sophomore year. He needs more help. 

10. The A’s are no longer the worst team in baseball

Verdict: Buy 

(The White Sox. It’s the White Sox.)

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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In November 2022, the Los Angeles Dodgers did what at one point would’ve seemed unfathomable for a homegrown, 27-year-old former MVP and Rookie of the Year: They non-tendered him. 

Cody Bellinger was due to make about $18 million in arbitration, and after back-to-back abysmal offensive years following surgery on a dislocated shoulder, the Dodgers thought the cost outweighed the value. They let him test the market. 

The Chicago Cubs, seeing an opportunity, were willing to provide what the Dodgers wouldn’t. They paid $17.5 million for one season of Bellinger, who rewarded them with a bounce-back year in which he finished 10th in MVP voting. 

Now, it looks like the Dodgers’ surplus might become the Cubs’ reward once again. 

Infielder Michael Busch didn’t have Bellinger’s MLB track record when the Cubs acquired him from the Dodgers in January, but he was a top-100 prospect who deserved an immediate big-league opportunity. Even the Dodgers recognized that. 

“He showed very clearly that he doesn’t belong in Triple-A and that he’s a major-league player,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said in December, a month before trading him for two lower-level, high-upside prospects in pitcher Jackson Ferris and outfielder Zyhir Hope. 

Busch is demonstrating that now with the Cubs. The slick-swinging corner infielder tied a team record Monday when he homered in a fifth consecutive game. The streak came to an end Tuesday, but half of the Cubs’ 14 runs over those five games (during which the Cubs went 3-2) came via Busch’s homers. 

That power production — a continuation of what Busch did last year at Triple-A Oklahoma City, where he hit 27 home runs, earned Pacific Coast League MVP honors and led the league in slugging and OPS — is all the more important now for a Chicago team moving forward without the injured Seiya Suzuki. 

To acquire Busch, the Cubs didn’t have to part with anyone they were counting on this year. So, how did the Cubs manage to add a gifted, MLB-ready offensive talent from a team with championship aspirations without losing anyone from their active roster? 

Well, in some ways, that was by the Dodgers’ design. 

Busch seemed to be an obvious trade candidate this winter as a 26-year-old prospect without a clear path to playing time in Los Angeles, and the Dodgers needed to clear a 40-man roster spot to make room for free agent outfielder Teoscar Hernández.

Despite his offensive proficiency, questions about Busch’s defensive future allowed him to fall to the Dodgers with the 31st pick in the draft five years ago. Primarily a first baseman at North Carolina, the Dodgers played him mostly at second base when his minor-league career began while also working him in at first base, left field and third base, where he logged most of his time in 2023 in an effort to carve a role for the big-league club. Like Muncy, Busch experienced his share of defensive shortcomings at the position last season. He committed 13 errors in 61 starts at third base in Triple-A and another four errors at the spot in his 10 starts at third base with the Dodgers.

But his bat was never a question. 

Only four other minor-leaguers tallied more home runs than Busch from 2021 to 2023, and he had a higher batting average, more walks and more doubles than any player ahead of him on that list — a testament to his special offensive profile. 

As a left-handed hitter with tremendous power and discipline, Busch drew comparisons to Max Muncy. Fittingly, his first taste of the majors came when Muncy went on the paternity list last year. 

But Busch’s 27 big-league games last year came in sporadic stints — three games in April, four in May, eight in June, nine in August and three in September. He was called back and forth from Triple-A three different times, and he never gained much traction as he struggled to a .167/.247/.292 slash line in limited action while bouncing around defensively, getting 10 starts at third base, seven at designated hitter and one at second base while serving as a late-game replacement at first base and in left field. 

He needed more time, which wasn’t going to come in Los Angeles. 

Busch’s best position seemed to be first base, where Freddie Freeman is under contract for the next four years. With Shohei Ohtani occupying the DH spot, Muncy signing an extension, Gavin Lux back from a season-ending knee injury and Mookie Betts moving more permanently to the infield, there was no clear path to a regular role in 2024. In addition, the Dodgers already had another bat-first infield prospect in Miguel Vargas. 

“There are a lot of different paths we can go down, some of which create more opportunity, some of which make it harder,” Friedman said before the trade. “Obviously, we’ll have more clarity as we go, but I think for Michael Busch, he did everything he possibly could to knock the door down.” 

It just so happens that he’s doing that in Chicago for a team that needed the injection of power in the lineup and help in the corner infield. 

Busch has been a perfectly adequate defensive first baseman in the early going, which is all he needs to be to help a major-league club with his bat. After a slow start offensively, he found the offensive rhythm that scouts projected, pacing the Cubs with a 1.073 OPS. 

Given the Dodgers’ offensive struggles at the bottom of the lineup to start the year — Lux is slashing .157/.218/.176, Chris Taylor is 1-for-35, as a team their left fielders are hitting a league-worst .091, and Teoscar Hernández is their only outfielder with an OPS over .600 — it’s possible the Dodgers end up regretting their decision. 

Then again, this winter was the last time they could trade Busch while retaining value for the aging prospect and restocking the lower levels of the minors. 

In exchange for Busch, the Dodgers received Ferris, a 2022 second-round pick out of IMG Academy who was ranked by MLB Pipeline as the Cubs’ No. 8 prospect at the time of the trade, and Hope, a 2023 11th-rounder who flashed his potential in the Arizona Complex League last year, where the 18-year-old launched three homers, knocked in nine runs and stole three bases over 11 games. 

While Ferris hasn’t exploded out of the gate this year after an intriguing performance at low-A Myrtle Beach as a 19-year-old last season (3.38 ERA, 12.4 K/9), Hope is turning heads at low-A Rancho Cucamonga with a 1.192 OPS to jumpstart his first full pro season. 

It is in part through these types of deals that the Dodgers, despite picking late in the draft every year, have consistently managed to produce a steady supply of prospects to supplement their big-league stars. They knew Busch was ready for a major-league chance, one that wouldn’t come at the expense of Freeman or Ohtani’s playing time, and they wanted to give Lux an opportunity after an ACL injury wiped out the former top prospect’s 2023 season. 

A few years from now, the prospects they acquired might remove some of the sting of Busch’s terrific start in Chicago. But given their current struggles at the bottom of the lineup — their Nos. 7-9 spots in the order collectively have the second-lowest OPS of any team in the majors — it’s fair to wonder how Busch’s bat might have made an impact, one that the Cubs are feeling right now as a former Dodger catalyzes their offense for a second straight season. 

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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LOS ANGELES — It was only a few weeks ago that Shohei Ohtani was laughing in the dugout alongside Ippei Mizuhara during the Dodgers‘ season opener in Seoul, blissfully unaware at the time of the alleged deception, lies and more than $16 million theft that would lead to his longtime interpreter getting fired by the Dodgers and charged with bank fraud by federal prosecutors. 

Mizuhara appeared in U.S. District Court last Friday with shackles around his ankles as he surrendered to authorities after being accused of stealing millions from Ohtani to pay off illegal gambling debts. A few hours later, “The Show Goes On” blared from the Dodger Stadium speakers. Ohtani stepped to the plate and heeded the advice of his walk-up song. 

In his first at-bat after learning about the charges against Mizuhara — a friend he had known for more than a decade, a confidant he had placed an exorbitant amount of trust in from the moment he arrived in the major leagues in 2018, and, ultimately, an accused swindler who would violate his enormous faith — Ohtani lifted a 403-foot home run through the chilly, crisp evening air and into the left-field pavilion. 

It was his 175th career homer, a milestone blast that tied Hideki Matsui for the most home runs in major-league history by a Japanese-born player, and it encapsulated Ohtani’s extraordinary ability to compartmentalize in the midst of a stunning scandal that never appeared to visibly bother or distract him, according to multiple teammates and coaches. 

“You just never learn about a person until they go through some adversity, whether on the field or in this case off the field,” manager Dave Roberts said. “I’ve learned that he’s unflappable. He really is.”

After beginning his Dodgers career 8-for-33 (.242) without a home run, some wondered whether the gambling saga and Mizuhara’s betrayal might weigh on Ohtani. Quickly, though, the modest start to his $700 million deal became a distant memory. Ohtani said that whatever happens off the field, it’s still his job to play to the best of his abilities. 

He bounced back by reeling off an eight-game hitting streak, during which he went 16-for-35 (.457) with four home runs, looking more and more comfortable at the plate even at the height of the controversy. Even with his hit streak now over, Ohtani entered Monday leading the majors in doubles, extra-base hits and total bases. 

“He’s recovering from a surgery, too, he’s throwing now, and he’s keeping things really light in the clubhouse, not making the whole scandal a distraction for him or for us in the clubhouse,” shortstop Miguel Rojas said. “It’s been really nice the way that he’s been handling things.”

Rojas admired that even when Ohtani wasn’t playing the way he wanted, Ohtani’s demeanor never changed. 

That could be attributed to his innocence, which his teammates and coaches never questioned. But even if the stress didn’t appear to be weighing on Ohtani, they still felt for him throughout the ordeal, which Roberts believes Ohtani handled “with flying colors.” 

“He’s very stoic,” Roberts said. “You just don’t know his emotions. He just comes in every day the same. You never know if things are good or things are bad, stuff on his mind. He’s just a pro. He just wants to play baseball.”

James Outman compared that stoicism to the way Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and “all the great players” always seem to find a way to stay locked in. 

“You could tell he’s got good practice just with all the media attention he gets anyways, being able to dial in what he’s doing,” Outman said. “It’s pretty impressive, to be honest.”

Over the past few weeks, the Dodgers have gained more intel on how Ohtani operates. Being a designated hitter can sometimes put a player “a little bit on an island,” as Roberts explained it, but the Dodgers manager was encouraged by how much Ohtani was still engaging with those around him. 

Rojas has learned that Ohtani tends to quietly keep to himself during his diligent preparation and cage work, but the two-time MVP is also quick to laugh and joke around with his teammates. And on game days, Rojas and Outman have appreciated Ohtani’s willingness to communicate after an at-bat and share the characteristics of the pitches he saw. 

“He just gives whatever information he can to the next guy because he’s trying to win,” Outman explained to FOX Sports. “We’re talking baseball. He speaks the same language when it’s baseball.”

The language barrier hasn’t prevented his teammates from seeing his sense of humor, either. On Saturday, Ohtani was having a conversation in Japanese with Yoshinobu Yamamoto a couple lockers away. Rojas said he didn’t understand what they were talking about, but Ohtani’s laugh was still infectious.

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“Just being in the clubhouse and seeming like he was enjoying his environment makes me feel like he’s leaving everything aside,” Rojas said. “We don’t know when he goes home how he feels, but at least at the ballpark, he seems to have a really good time with us.”

That, Roberts believes, could be attributed in part to Mizuhara’s departure. 

With his longtime interpreter gone, no longer serving as Ohtani’s shadow at the ballpark, Roberts believed a “buffer” was removed. He saw Ohtani begin to connect more with staff and teammates. The two-time MVP became more accessible. 

“I thought that freed him up,” Roberts reiterated last week. 

Of course, so did Ohtani’s first home run as a Dodger — a majestic, 430-foot blast off the Giants‘ Taylor Rogers on April 3 that admittedly gave the slugger some relief after his slow start. The deep drive ended an eight-game homerless skid that was the longest of his career to begin a season, but it wasn’t until Ohtani reached the top steps of the dugout, when teammate Teoscar Hernández showered him with sunflower seeds, that he finally cracked a smile. Hernández, in particular, has built a close relationship with Ohtani in their first season with the Dodgers. That started quickly in spring training, when Hernández began teaching the Japanese slugger different phrases in Spanish. 

“I think the best thing we can all do is treat him like a regular baseball player, like everyone else in the clubhouse,” Roberts said. “I think someone that’s so unique and so talented, people tend to get tentative and shy away. But in the clubhouse, you can’t do that.”

Roberts isn’t certain if Ohtani has really been able to separate his professional and personal life the way he has made it appear or if the two-time MVP just has “a good poker face.” He assumes it’s probably somewhere in between. But if the past few weeks have worn at all on Ohtani, he has hid it masterfully since news first broke about Mizuhara’s involvement in wire transfers made from Ohtani’s account to an illegal bookmaker. 

Days later, in a press conference on March 25, Ohtani matter-of-factly outlined his version of events. In a nearly 12-minute statement, Ohtani vehemently denied that he ever bet on sports, that he ever asked anyone to do so on his behalf and that he had any knowledge of the payments. His collected demeanor belied his disbelief. 

“To summarize how I’m feeling right now, I’m just beyond shocked,” Ohtani said, days after Mizuhara fessed up to him following a team meeting in Korea. “It’s really hard to verbalize how I’m feeling at this point.”

The extent to which Mizuhara allegedly stole from Ohtani would not be unveiled until weeks later. 

Reports initially suggested Mizuhara had funneled an amount in excess of $4.5 million from Ohtani’s bank account. According to a criminal complaint released last Thursday, the total was actually more than $16 million. In a 37-page report containing a litany of records, statements and text messages, the accusations against Mizuhara backed up Ohtani’s claims that he was completely unaware of the payments. 

“He was exonerated, which we all believe,” Roberts said. “I’m just happy that it’s behind us.” 

According to the complaint, Mizuhara accompanied Ohtani to open the bank account in question in 2018, convinced Ohtani’s representatives that their star athlete didn’t want them monitoring the account, changed the account’s contact information to his own after he began accumulating gambling debts in 2021 and falsely identified himself as Ohtani to deceive bank employees into authorizing wire transfers to the bookmaker. Transfers from the account were allegedly made from devices and IP addresses associated with Mizuhara.

Ohtani has not publicly addressed his reaction to the charges against Mizuhara yet, except to provide a short comment to The Los Angeles Times last week that he was “very grateful for the Department of Justice’s investigation” and that it will allow him “to focus on baseball.”

That hasn’t seemed to be a problem for Ohtani, whose 15 extra-base hits through his first 16 games were the most in Dodgers franchise history. He entered Monday with the five hardest-hit balls of the Dodgers’ season. 

“Just happy that there’s a little bit more clarity, and Shohei can move forward,” Roberts said. 

The show goes on. 

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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We’ve seen the Pirates surge, the Marlins stumble, the Red Sox’s rotation overwhelm and the Astros‘ bullpen falter.  

But which first impressions are for real?  

Here are 10 takes you might have after the first two weeks of the year — and whether I’m buying or selling those reactions (or overreactions). 

1. The Pirates’ hot start is different this year

Verdict: Buy 

Remember last year, when the Pirates were 20-8 on April 29 and led the division? Well, you’ll never guess what they’re doing again. Pittsburgh has started 9-3 and enters Thursday with the highest winning percentage in the National League. But is it legit or another red herring? 

As good as Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds are, unless Connor Joe’s OPS somehow hovers around 1.000 all year, I don’t think they’ll maintain this offensive pace. But I do believe this year is different. The pitching staff’s success (they’re top 10 in ERA, top five in WHIP among MLB teams) is more believable to me, especially given the fact that we have yet to see the best of Mitch Keller or David Bednar. Jared Jones raises the ceiling of the current rotation, and that ceiling gets higher quickly once Pittsburgh calls up Paul Skenes. 

This is a team on the rise, and while the best is probably a couple of years away, it’s not so far-fetched in a division up for grabs that the Pirates could take a step forward and contend (really, this time). 

2. This is the beginning of the Astros’ fall-off in the AL West

Verdict: Sell 

Here is how Houston’s season began:

Loss by reliever
Loss by reliever
Loss by reliever 
Loss by reliever 
Win by Ronel Blanco (no-hitter) 
Loss by reliever
Win by shutout 
Loss by reliever 

On Tuesday, you won’t believe this, but a Houston reliever took an L. Eight different Astros pitchers have already absorbed a loss. The team is now 4-9 and last in a division that includes the A’s. The troubles start, clearly, with a bullpen that is 1-for-5 in save opportunities and has more losses than any relief group in the sport. That feared triumvirate of Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu? They entered Wednesday a combined 0-4 with a 7.63 ERA and four homers allowed. 

While there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about the Houston bullpen, particularly in the middle innings, I just can’t see a world where that trio continues to struggle this badly. The Astros (7-10 to start the 2021 season, 6-8 to start the 2022 season, 8-10 to start last season) are no stranger to crummy starts, although this one stands out as particularly stale. José Abreu’s abysmal start at the plate is troubling, but Yordan Álvarez and José Altuve are still raking and Yainer Díaz provides more offensive upside behind the plate. I assume they’ll figure this thing out. 

3. The Marlins’ season is doomed — and it’s time to start selling 

Verdict: Buy

What could you get for two years of Luis Arráez? Or how about three years of Jesús Luzardo? I know fire sales have gotten the Marlins in trouble before, but whatever they can do to add some bats to the farm system and think toward the future, it’s time. 

All the red flags from last year’s 84-78 playoff team — the minus-57 run differential, the unsustainably extraordinary 33-14 record in one-run games — seem to be rearing their head, not to mention the fact this team did nothing to get better in the offseason and is now without Sandy Alcántara and Eury Pérez. 

A year of bad vibes seemed to start when they let Kim Ng depart unceremoniously, and now they might lose reigning Manager of the Year Skip Schumaker, who was hired by Ng and had the 2025 club option voided from his deal. At 2-11, with a minus-30 run differential, they don’t look competitive this year. Might as well start bolstering one of the worst farm systems in the sport. 

4. The Red Sox’s rotation really might be one of the best in baseball

Verdict: Sell  

Look, the numbers don’t lie, and I don’t want to diminish what is clearly a group putting things together under new direction. Boston’s starters have the lowest ERA in the majors in the early going led by new pitching coach Andrew Bailey and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow. They have gotten the best out of a group of starters that had a 4.68 ERA last year and is returning largely the same cast, minus Chris Sale and James Paxton. 

Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock all had ERAs over 4.00 last season. Those four all have ERAs under 1.00 this year while altering their pitch usage rather dramatically, most obviously cutting down on their fastball rate. Whitlock was over 50% sinkers this year and is under 25% on the pitch in the early going this year. Houck, guided by a slider and sinker getting more horizontal break, has nearly doubled his strikeout rate and hasn’t been barreled yet. Crawford looks almost as unhittable while upping his sweeper usage. 

Clearly, there is more here than a lot of people expected going into the season, and more reason to believe that Boston could compete in the loaded AL East despite its offseason inactivity. 

At the same time, the Red Sox have faced the Mariners, Athletics and Angels, three teams not exactly known for their elite bats, and Boston’s thin rotation depth is already getting tested. Beyond losing top signing Lucas Giolito to a significant elbow injury, Pivetta is now on the IL with a flexor strain. If the Red Sox had gone “full throttle” and signed a Blake Snell or a Shōta Imanaga, maybe I’d feel differently, but it’s still hard to envision this group — though much improved — ending the year among the best in baseball as currently constructed. 

5. Anthony Volpe’s hot start is legit

Verdict: Buy 

A year ago, we saw a top prospect shortstop in Bobby Witt Jr. evolve from one of the worst fielders at his position to one of the best. This year, we might be witnessing an offensive version of that transformation in Volpe. 

By wRC+, Volpe was one of the 10 worst qualified hitters in the sport in 2023 (he slashed .209/.283/.383) despite a 20/20 rookie year. He does not look like the same guy to start his sophomore campaign. Volpe reportedly cleaned up his bat path to eliminate some of the holes in his swing and stay in the zone longer. The result is a lower launch angle, fewer flyouts and more line drives, allowing the shortstop to utilize his plus speed. He is mashing breaking balls, which gave him trouble a season ago, but the most glaring difference is a whiff rate he has cut down by more than double from last year. He isn’t chasing as much — and when he does, he’s still making a lot more contact than he did previously. 

While this level of play might not be sustainable, and he’ll probably need to barrel more balls consistently to make the leap into superstar territory, it’s an extremely encouraging start for Volpe and a Yankees lineup that could use a third star behind Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. His Gold Glove defense gives him a solid floor, but the improvements under the hood offensively give reason to believe Volpe, a 2019 first-round pick, could reach his ceiling sooner than anticipated after last year’s offensive troubles. 

6. Shōta Imanaga will win NL Rookie of the Year 

Verdict: Sell

A starting pitcher moving stateside from Japan is taking the National League by storm — just maybe not the one everyone expected. 

While Yoshinobu Yamamoto seems to be figuring things out after a disastrous first start, Imanaga has yet to allow a run through his first two outings. He has been an exceptional, vital piece for a shorthanded Cubs rotation, expertly placing his rising four-seamer at the top of the zone while getting swing and miss on his splitter. His control (he has yet to walk anyone) and his chase rate (he ranks in the 99th percentile) have been elite. If we were voting right now for NL Cy Young, he would get my vote. But we are not. And there are some reasons for trepidation. 

He hasn’t allowed a home run through two starts, but he has the highest fly ball rate (and lowest ground ball rate) of any pitcher who has thrown at least 10 innings this year. That sample size is far too small to draw any sweeping conclusions, but it’s worth remembering that his terrific NPB strikeout and walk numbers last year also came with elevated home run and fly ball rates. That gives me some pause, especially considering the increased power he’ll see in MLB and the fact that opponents are hitting him hard when they do make contact. In addition, can he continue to turn to his fastball/splitter 90% of the time when he starts seeing more lineups a third time through? 

7. The Tigers and Royals will be contenders in the AL Central

Verdict: Buy 

The inactivity of the Twins and Guardians this winter opened the door for another team — or two — to make their case as division title contenders. The rough start for the Twins and Shane Bieber’s season-ending injury have only opened that door further. 

While I’m hesitant to make too much of the hot starts for the upstart Tigers and Royals — both young teams got where they are primarily by whooping the White Sox, although Kansas City’s success against Houston lends more legitimacy to its start — we should learn more about Detroit soon. The Tigers, still waiting on their best hitters to get cooking, will face the Twins in two of their next three series (the other series is against the reigning champion Rangers). 

Both teams appear to have legit aces in Tarik Skubal and Cole Ragans, and the additions in the Detroit bullpen (Shelby Miller looks basically untouchable) and the Kansas City rotation (Royals starters’ 1.97 ERA ranks second behind the Red Sox) have both teams positioned well to make a run in a winnable division. Brady Singer appears poised for a bounce-back year, and might this be the MJ Melendez breakout season? 

8. It’s panic time for the Twins and Mariners 

Verdict: Sell  

The White Sox and Athletics are not set up to win baseball games this year, so it’s a bit troubling that those are the only teams averaging fewer runs per game than Minnesota and Seattle in the early going. 

Losing Royce Lewis for an extended period is obviously devastating, but no one could have anticipated this degree of ineptitude from a Twins offense that had a top-seven OPS and launched the third-most homers in the sport last year. They not only have the lowest batting average in baseball — by a lot — but also had only four home runs on the season before finding the bleachers five times over the past two days versus the Dodgers. Maybe that will get them, and last year’s breakout rookie Edouard Julien, going. 

I’m less concerned about their offense, especially considering how Carlos Correa has bounced back, as I am the Mariners’. Seattle tried to address some of its high whiff rates … only to start this season with the highest strikeout rate in the sport (followed, by the way, by a Twins team that had the most strikeouts in baseball last year). 

Neither the mainstays of the lineup nor the newcomers the Mariners hoped would upgrade the group have gotten going. Julio Rodríguez, J.P. Crawford, Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver and Luke Raley each have an OPS under .500. Still, the bigger surprise is the struggling rotation. There’s just no way the starters’ ERA stays above 5.00 for long, and Rodríguez will get hot at some point. For both teams, it’s an uneasy start — but I think too early to panic. 

9. The Cardinals are missing the playoffs again

Verdict: Buy 

It HAS to be better this year in St. Louis …

Right?  

A trendy pick by many to rebound and win the NL Central, the Cardinals again find themselves in last place in the early going. Sonny Gray is a huge add, but he can only do so much to provide stability to a rotation that might struggle once again. The Cardinals are going to go as far as their offense takes them … which isn’t very far if the veteran hitters they’re counting on most continue to struggle the way they have to start the year. I wouldn’t necessarily pick the Cardinals to finish in fifth place again, but after watching this team for a couple of weeks, it wouldn’t shock me if that happens. 

10. The Rays‘ pitching staff is finally overwhelmed by all the injuries and might be in trouble 

Verdict: Sell

Tampa Bay has the fifth-worst ERA in baseball, and the numbers are particularly skewed by a struggling bullpen. But, c’mon, it’s the Rays. As a group, the Rays haven’t finished outside the top five in ERA since 2018, when they ranked sixth. They tend to absorb injuries and somehow figure this stuff out. 

Similar to the situation at the back end in Houston, I have a hard time believing Pete Fairbanks, Colin Poche and Phil Maton will all have ERAs over 5.00 for long. The same goes for starter Zach Eflin, who has gotten off to a rough start after finishing sixth in Cy Young voting last season. And though life becomes more difficult without ace Shane McClanahan, at some point Tampa Bay should get Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen back into the mix. I’m not overly concerned yet. 

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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