Quarterback projections are usually wrong for one simple reason: We spend too much time talking about the quarterback and not enough time talking about everything around him.
Every spring, evaluators obsess over arm strength, athleticism, release mechanics and highlight-reel throws. Then September arrives, and we’re reminded that rookie quarterbacks don’t enter the NFL in a vacuum. They enter ecosystems. Some inherit stable organizations, proven play-callers and ascending offensive lines. Others walk into rebuilding projects where every dropback feels like an exercise in survival.
The data back that up.
To see which factors actually mattered most, I ran a model using college and rookie
Link to Original Article - on ESPN