Dodgers' 5 biggest X-factors vs. Yankees in 2024 World Series

Rowan Kavner

MLB Writer

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The Dodgers‘ superstars have delivered this postseason, at times overwhelming the competition. That advantage might not manifest or be as pronounced in the Fall Classic, as Los Angeles takes on the American League’s top-seeded New York Yankees.

The heavyweight matchup is sure to test the depth of both rosters. Here are five X-factors who could swing the 2024 World Series in the Dodgers’ favor.

1. Freddie Freeman, first baseman

Freeman said it’ll be “100 percent go” for him in Game 1, though it’s hard to know exactly what to expect. The Dodgers have survived two rounds of the playoffs despite a clearly diminished and hobbled version of their All-Star first baseman, who returned nine days after an ankle sprain and bone bruise that he said would typically require a 4-6 week recovery.

Every step in the NLDS and NLCS appeared labored. When he managed to truck home from second to score a run in Game 1 of the NLCS, he needed Mookie Betts to catch him after crossing home plate. It’s the only run he has scored this postseason. He has gritted through the pain to start eight playoff games, serving as a source of inspiration within the clubhouse in the process, but he has finished only three of them. He missed two of the last three games of the NLCS, including the deciding Game 6.

Though he began the playoffs 6-for-17, all six of those hits were singles. He then went 1-for-15 over his final three games of the NLCS. Manager Dave Roberts noted that Freeman’s ankle appeared to be compromising his swing the longer the series progressed. If the week off can have him looking more like himself at the plate, it would be a gigantic boost to a juggernaut Dodgers offense that just set an NLCS record with 46 runs against the Mets.

2. Walker Buehler, starting pitcher

This year has been a grind for Buehler, who hasn’t missed bats or commanded the baseball the way we’re accustomed to seeing in his return from a second Tommy John surgery. A strikeout rate that hovered above 26% in each of his first five seasons in the big leagues was down to a career-low 18.6% this year, and his 5.38 ERA told the story of a pitcher who could no longer overpower his opponents.

But after a lengthy search to find his mechanics, something seemed to click for him in a bullpen session in late August. He was far from perfect after that, but a 4.35 ERA over his final six regular-season starts represented a substantial improvement — enough for him to earn a spot in the club’s beleaguered playoff rotation. That, plus the Dodgers trusted his postseason pedigree. In 2018, he clinched the NL West for the Dodgers by winning a Game 163 tiebreaker, then threw seven scoreless innings in the World Series. Two years later, he struck out 10 in his lone start of the World Series to help the Dodgers best the Rays.

The bigger the game, the more he tends to rise to the occasion. In his last start of the 2024 regular season, Buehler was on the mound as the Dodgers clinched the division against the Padres. His first start of the postseason looked worse than the six runs in the box score displayed, as he was let down by his defense. In his last start, he found success with his breaking balls and struck out six Mets batters in four scoreless innings while getting 18 whiffs — his most in a game since the 2021 season. That’s a version of Buehler that could win a World Series game and end a sour season on a sweet note before he hits free agency.

3. Kiké Hernández, second baseman

Ever since Hernández started visualizing his postseason success in the 2017 NLCS, when he launched three homers in the game that would send the Dodgers to the World Series, he has been one of baseball’s best postseason performers. This year is no exception.

Really, though, his upward trend this year began shortly after the All-Star break, when he was diagnosed with astigmatism in his right eye and began wearing prescription glasses on the field. He had a .766 OPS in the second half and has carried that crescendo into another extraordinary October. He went from not starting any of the Dodgers’ first three games of the postseason to being a mainstay in the starting lineup after Miguel Rojas went out with injury, homering in a do-or-die Game 5 of the NLDS, going deep again in Game 3 of the NLCS, and hitting .303 overall this postseason. In his regular-season career, he has homered once every 29 at-bats. In his postseason career, he’s homering twice as often — about once every 14 at-bats.

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Even if Rojas and Gavin Lux are healthy enough to play in the World Series, the Dodgers might have to continue starting Hernández every night, considering the way he has performed. He transforms into an entirely different force this time of year, and odds are he’ll add another defining moment at some point this series.

4. Will Smith, catcher

While Yankees rookie catcher Austin Wells is getting his first taste of the playoffs, Smith is a seasoned veteran this time of year. Smith enjoyed some huge moments in postseasons past, including a home run in Game 5 of the 2020 NLCS against the Braves reliever who shared his same name, a hit that might have saved the Dodgers’ season en route to a 3-1 comeback in the series and a World Series triumph. There was no question at the All-Star break that Smith and Brewers catcher William Contreras were the two best players at their position in the National League.

Since then, though, Smith has endured some uncharacteristic struggles. His .838 OPS in the first half was more than 200 points lower the rest of the way. Those struggles continued into October. He enters the World Series hitting .158 this postseason. However, two of his six hits have left the yard, including a home run in the NLCS clincher that could help get the scuffling catcher back on track. He has been one of the best hitters at his position since entering the league in 2019, and his experience and poise in these spots could prove useful.

5. Tommy Edman, shortstop

There was a lot of attention at the All-Star break on the additions of Jack Flaherty and Michael Kopech, considering the way they could help lift the Dodgers’ depleted pitching staff. But it was a more under-the-radar acquisition who became the NLCS MVP. In Edman, the Dodgers added a versatile defensive piece who, at the time of the deadline, had not yet played a game this season as he rehabbed a surgically-repaired wrist and an ankle injury. His ability to play both center field and shortstop was additive to a Dodgers team that needed help at both spots.

It then became essential with starting shortstop Miguel Rojas banged up in October. What Edman has provided with his bat, though, has been the surprise. He led all players in the LCS with 11 hits and tied Corey Seager’s NLCS franchise record with 11 RBIs. If a left-hander’s on the mound, Edman is a force. The switch-hitter had a 1.299 OPS against southpaws this year compared to a .523 mark against righties. He went 7-for-12 with four extra-base hits against lefties in the NLCS, taking advantage of his opportunities against left-handed starters Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana, while he was 4-for-15 with no extra-base hits against righties. While he could struggle against the Yankees’ more right-handed heavy rotation, Edman’s matchup against the left-handed Carlos Rodón will be one to watch.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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