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The hot stove hasn’t cooled off during the holidays.
Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and Max Fried are all finally signed, and each one of their contracts surprised to some degree. But which team negotiated the best deal between that trio? Which American League contender is having the best offseason? Where will Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman sign, and for how much?
FOX Sports MLB experts Deesha Thosar and Rowan Kavner weigh in on those topics and more in our latest roundtable.
1. Which of the big three pitcher contracts do you like best from the respective teams’ perspective?
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Thosar: Maybe it’s partly due to the shock of the signing, but I like the deal the Diamondbacks worked out with Corbin Burnes. Even though they weren’t linked to him all winter, Burnes’ residency in Arizona clearly made the organization a top candidate internally, and they capitalized on that advantage to secure the top free agent starting pitcher left on the market. The D-backs already had a strong rotation (Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery) without Burnes, and those supporting arms will decrease the pressure for him to uphold an entire pitching staff.
The NL West, dominated by the Dodgers, is arguably baseball’s toughest division, and the D-backs needed someone with the top talent of Burnes (2.94 ERA since 2021) to become a viable contender. As far as the money (six years, $210 million), Burnes was always expected to earn at least $35 million per year on a long-term deal, and the D-backs deserve credit for being able to deliver.
Kavner: Blake Snell with the Dodgers. I didn’t anticipate Max Fried getting the biggest contract (both by years and total value) of any pitcher this winter. I would have been hesitant to give eight years to a 30-year-old with recent forearm issues, so then it comes down to Snell and Corbin Burnes for me, and while I give major credit to the D-backs for swooping in to add an ace to a pitching staff that needed an upgrade, I’ll still take Snell for five years and $182 million on the Dodgers over Burnes for six years and $210 on the D-backs for a few reasons.
For starters, Burnes can opt out after two years. In addition, the deferrals in Snell’s deal lower his average annual value to between $3-4 million less per season than what Burnes is making. Plus, the Dodgers get added protection with their conditional club option on Snell’s contract for a sixth season at just $10 million should Snell suffer a serious injury at some point during his Los Angeles tenure. Burnes is certainly the bigger workhorse, but the upside is higher with Snell, who stabilizes a Dodgers rotation that had a lot of injury questions and whose overpowering swing-and-miss stuff can make him the best pitcher in the game when he gets on the type of roll he was on in the second half of the 2024 season. He’s a game-changer in October like few others.
2. The Yankees and Astros have been among the more active teams this winter among American League contenders. Which club has had the better offseason?
Kavner: Right now, I would not project either team to be better than what they were last year. But you can at least see a clearer path toward that potentially being possible for the Yankees, and I think they’ve had the better offseason of the two teams. Christian Walker is one of the more underrated players in baseball and was my favorite first baseman on the market (at least for the next 2-3 years), and I also think Isaac Paredes should have a field day with the Crawford Boxes, but I would much rather have Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman than what the Astros have now.
That’s not to say what the Yankees are doing will make up for the losses of Juan Soto, Nestor Cortes and Clay Holmes. The additions of Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt don’t exactly ease my concerns about that offense without Soto, but the pitching upgrades give them the nod here.
Thosar: Both teams lost at least one star player this offseason, but the difference for me is the Yankees’ strong response to losing Juan Soto in free agency, versus Houston’s game plan and execution once they decided to trade Kyle Tucker to the Cubs and most likely let Alex Bregman walk away in free agency. After Soto’s decision to decamp to Queens, the Yankees pivoted by acquiring Max Fried, Devin Williams, Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt. Sure, we can go back and forth about the value of each of those contracts and how risky it could be to improve the lineup with two questionable/inconsistent bats, but the sheer volume of star players the Yankees added gives them the trophy for the better offseason when comparing them to Houston.
The Astros’ big move was signing first baseman Christian Walker, but that was a necessity for a while now (they had among the worst offensive production in MLB at the corner infield position in 2024). Often, the team’s financial limits in free agency are forgiven just because Jim Crane has set the standard that he won’t go above a certain payroll threshold to win. In the end, the Astros are a weaker team without Tucker and Bregman, just like the Yankees have a weaker lineup without Soto. But New York’s fully committed response to improve the entire roster gives it the better offseason.
3. What’s been your favorite short-term deal thus far?
Thosar: This isn’t the sexiest answer, but I like the Tigers’ deal with Gleyber Torres because it works out for everyone involved. Detroit is gambling just $15 million on a one-year deal — and that’s just about how much Torres was expected to earn on the market after recording his worst career OPS (.709) in his walk year with the Yankees. The Tigers have the opportunity to improve Torres’ defensive shortcomings at second base within the backdrop of an exciting, youth-driven roster that exceeded expectations last season.
As for Torres, he’s betting on himself with a prove-it deal to improve his value before he hits free agency again next winter, when he’ll still only be just 29 years old. It has always seemed like Torres would excel outside of the high-pressure New York market, and now he finally has the chance to improve his slugging (his high-water mark, astonishingly, was when he crushed 38 home runs in the 2019 season) and find his form again amid what is still the prime of his career. It’s a good deal for both sides in a world where overpayments are the norm.
Kavner: It’s one of Gleyber Torres, Shane Bieber or Walker Buehler for me, and I’ll go with Torres for one year and $15 million to the Tigers. This wasn’t the walk year he envisioned in New York, but if he performs to his capabilities in Detroit, this could be the steal of the offseason.
I thought the Tigers might try to upgrade at corner infield first, but wherever it was, they desperately needed another right-handed bat to both balance the lineup and raise its floor. Torres was a league-average hitter this year with the Yankees, but he’s a 28-year-old two-time All-Star who should have some extra motivation and a chance now to re-establish his value in a lower-pressure environment. He might never fully realize the upside many expected when he launched 38 home runs as a 22-year-old, but for just $15 million, it’s a low-risk chance that could reap big rewards for Detroit.
4. What are your best guesses for the teams and terms for Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso?
Kavner: I don’t feel particularly confident that either player reaches the $200 million mark, though Bregman certainly has the better chance. At 30 years old, he’s still a terrific defender who packs 20-plus homer pop with elite plate discipline. And now that a reunion in Houston appears out of the question, the possibilities are numerous. Any contending team with a need at third base (or second base) should be interested. The Tigers make the most sense for me as a fit, but I don’t anticipate their best offer will be enough. So, I’ll say the Blue Jays, coming off their massive 2024 disappointment, do what it takes to land the star that has eluded them and give him seven years and $196 million.
I don’t expect quite the same robust market for Alonso, given his defensive deficiencies and troubling offensive trends outside of his prodigious power. Now that the Astros and Yankees have already found their answers at first base in free agency, I think it comes down to the Mets and Giants for Alonso with a return to Queens ultimately in the cards. I could see this contract getting creative, but let’s say six years, $156 million.
Thosar: I have always expected Alonso to end back up with the Mets, and I’m not changing my answer now. The Mets know firsthand how pivotal Alonso’s role was in their 2024 playoff run — and even though he had a substandard regular season, his ninth-inning go-ahead home run off Devin Williams in the wild-card series propelled his club all the way to the NLCS. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns can try his best to take sentimentality out of the equation, but I think the emotional tie to Alonso might just push Steve Cohen to get the deal done somewhere around $130 million for five years.
As for Bregman, the Red Sox seem like the ideal landing spot for the two-time World Series champion. He would likely have to switch positions and play second base in Boston, but a potential Bregman signing would make the Red Sox contenders in the AL East. I would hesitate to give Bregman more than five years since he’s entering his age-31 season, but I think if the Sox are desperate enough, going to six years for around $165 million could make sense for both sides, which would include a reunion with his former Houston manager, Alex Cora.
5. Would signing Rōki Sasaki cap off an ideal offseason for the Dodgers? Do you have any real concerns with their roster?
Thosar: The Dodgers signing Sasaki would make for a fantastic offseason for the club. They have already addressed several roster concerns by paying up for typical top free agents (Blake Snell and Teoscar Hernandez), further signaling to the industry that they have every intention to defend their title. And landing Sasaki through an unusual free agency, plus adding yet another Japanese pitcher, would send the message that they have cemented themselves as the premiere landing spot for overseas talent.
The roster — mainly the outfield — would be more concerning if the Dodgers hadn’t reached a deal with Hernandez. But now, with Mookie Betts set for another move to the infield, the outfield looks like it will be Michael Conforto in right, Tommy Edman in center, and Hernandez in left, which makes for a solid roster construction that will in no way limit their offensive strength. The only concern they have left is making sure their arms stay healthy — and that can be safeguarded by adding more depth.
Kavner: It would make for an unbelievable offseason. There’s an argument to be made that even without Sasaki, a rotation featuring Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani might already be the best in baseball. Add Sasaki (and eventually free agent Clayton Kershaw) to that list, and it’s easily the most talented group in the game.
Now, talent and availability are two different things. Glasnow missed the end of the season with an elbow issue, Yamamoto missed nearly three months with a rotator cuff strain, and Ohtani, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin all didn’t pitch in 2024, so it’s hard to know exactly what to expect from the group. But if health is more on their side this year, the ceiling is massive for that unit, even after losing Walker Buehler and Jack Flaherty.
The Dodgers already answered the two biggest concerns on their roster — starting pitching and outfield — by signing Snell, retaining Teoscar Hernández and adding Michael Conforto. You could quibble about their apparent decision to go with Mookie Betts at shortstop rather than second base or right field, but Tommy Edman and Miguel Rojas provide some insurance at the spot, and they already demonstrated they can win a World Series with those pieces as the options at the position. I’d expect them to try to further bolster the back end of their bullpen before offseason’s end, but even if they do nothing else from here, the moves they’ve made have positioned them to be an even more formidable group in 2025.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
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