The Yankees were interested in trading for Kyle Tucker. They instead landed Cody Bellinger. It came at a much different cost and should yield a different type of return. The Cubs, of course, were involved in both transactions featuring the multi-time All-Stars.
That prompted the following debate between our MLB writers:Â
Deesha Thosar: There are a few different ways of looking at this, but my answer is Bellinger to the Yankees — particularly because they essentially got him for free. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman sent only 30-year-old right-hander Cody Poteet to Chicago in exchange for Bellinger. The veteran righty has a 3.80 ERA in 24 games (13 starts) across three years in the major leagues between the Marlins and the Yankees, and he’ll simply serve as another depth arm on the Cubs’ pitching staff. Sure, Poteet’s 2.22 ERA in 24.1 innings last year — which included four solid starts while Gerrit Cole began the year on the injured list — was valuable for the Yankees’ rotation.
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But the trade agreement to part ways with Poteet, versus a top prospect in the Yankees’ farm system, was as easy of a decision for Cashman as whether to wear a coat in New York during the winter.
Bellinger’s versatility in the field is a focal point of this trade. Last season, the former MVP award winner appeared defensively at all three outfield positions (49 games in right field, 48 games in center and one game in left) and played a good chunk at first base (22 games). Depending on the flurry of activity in the Yankees’ front office the rest of this offseason, manager Aaron Boone can play Bellinger in center, right or first base to fill whichever roster deficit is left by the time Opening Day rolls around. As of right now, Bellinger makes the most sense at first base or center field, because Aaron Judge can move back to right and Jasson DomÃnguez can continue to increase his reps in left. But if the Yankees sign either Christian Walker or Teoscar Hernández, for example, Bellinger can take over at the remaining positional hole.
So, we know the deal made sense for the Yankees from a roster standpoint, but it was fair from a financial scope, too. New York will pay Bellinger $25 million in 2025, with the Cubs handling the remaining $5 million of his previous pact, and the Yankees will pay him $22.5 million in 2026 if he doesn’t opt out. If he does, the teams will split his $5 million buyout.Â
All of which is to say, the risk here primarily lies in the financials. It seems impossible to predict which version of Bellinger the Yankees will get in 2025, especially after his offensive numbers dipped in 2024. But since Bellinger is only one year removed from his comeback campaign with the Cubs (4.4 fWAR, 136 wRC+ in 2023), the Yankees are betting they can help him get back to that form. If Bellinger hits anywhere close to his All-Star potential, then he’s a steal for the Yankees.
Tucker is, of course, a huge get for the Cubs, but since they had to give up three players, including top third base prospect Cam Smith, to the Astros for a one-year rental, the Bellinger trade was a layup for the Yankees and a sensible payroll-shedding move for Chicago that should let it address other areas of need.
Rowan Kavner: I like both trades, but I’d favor the Cubs given that they got the better player and the star they desperately needed. Tucker, who buttresses the Cubs’ collection of above-average talents, is very likely going to be the best player not named Juan Soto wearing a different uniform in 2025. Tucker might have been overshadowed by other standouts in Houston, but he slots in right behind Aaron Judge, Soto and Mookie Betts for the most wins above replacement accumulated by an outfielder over the past five seasons.
Tucker is also one of just seven big-leaguers who has been worth more than 4.0 WAR each of the past four years, which speaks to his consistency. That he managed to do so again in 2024, despite playing in just 78 games, speaks to his ceiling. At 28 next year, the Cubs are getting one of the best players in the sport still in his prime. His salary, which will likely be somewhere between $15-16 million in his final year of arbitration, should represent a considerable bargain.
Of course, getting the better player in question required surrendering more. The Cubs could afford to part with Isaac Paredes to open the path for top prospect Matt Shaw, but losing 2024 first-rounder Cam Smith — who immediately becomes the Astros’ best prospect — was significant. So, if you’re strictly judging these two trades by who came and went, I can understand favoring the Bellinger deal. No disrespect to Cody Poteet, but he was not going to factor significantly into the Yankees’ plans in 2025.
The Yankees needed help in the outfield and at first base and an injection of talent into a lineup now missing Soto, and Bellinger checks each of those boxes, even if he didn’t produce to the level of his $27.5 million salary last season (which is why he didn’t opt out).Â
After an unceremonious ending to his L.A. tenure, the 2017 Rookie of the Year and 2019 NL MVP bounced back in his first season in Chicago in 2023 by sacrificing power for contact. He cut his strikeout rate nearly in half while finishing 10th in MVP voting, though he considerably outproduced his expected numbers. In 2024, he came back down to earth. Still, he should help in the Bronx, where his left-handed bat figures to produce more home runs than it did at Wrigley Field. In a barren center field market, the Yankees found a solid player to roam the position without losing any significant pieces.
But neither team should be done yet. The Yankees need more offensive help, and the Bellinger addition will look better if they can also add one of the top corner infielders on the market. The Cubs, meanwhile, need to use the money they saved in the Bellinger salary dump to add more pitching. So, we should have a better answer to this question in a couple of months!
Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
The San Francisco Giants have finally landed a big fish. It only took the better part of a decade and the individual with the largest deal in franchise history to make it happen. Shortstop Willy Adames now holds that distinction, however, as his reported seven-year deal for $182 million tops that of new president of baseball operations Buster Posey.
The Giants, and perhaps Posey, found themselves in this position partly because the club’s 13-year, $350 million pact with Carlos Correa two winters ago fell through over concerns about his medicals. While Correa is coming off another All-Star (yet abbreviated) season, the Twins are reportedly open to trading the 30-year-old despite four years left on his contract. The 29-year-old Adames, meanwhile, is coming off perhaps the best year of his career with the Brewers.
That prompted the following debate between our MLB writers:Â
Money being equal, who would you rather have for the next five years, Willy Adames or Carlos Correa?
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Rowan Kavner: This is a close call considering Adames’ durability and home run ability, but I have to go with the upside of Correa. He’s a year older with a concerning injury history, but he’s also a three-time All-Star, former Rookie of the Year and Platinum Glove winner and, as his .905 OPS this year demonstrated, a potential MVP contender when he’s healthy. The downside, of course, is that he often isn’t.
Adames is a much better bet to actually stay on the field. He’s a consistently above-average player who just produced a career year offensively, though his high strikeout and whiff rates cap his offensive ceiling. The highest wRC+ Adames has produced in a season was 126 (he was 26% better than league average offensively in the shortened 2020 season); Correa, meanwhile, has averaged a 127 wRC+ for his career (and a 126 mark over the past four years).
Since 2021, Correa and Adames rank sixth and eighth, respectively, in FanGraphs’ version of WAR among shortstops. Limit it to the past three seasons, and they’re 10th and ninth. In other words, they’ve provided close to the same value in recent years, despite Adames playing in almost 100 more games during that stretch. You can look at that two ways. One, Adames has been the more reliable player. Two, Correa is usually the more productive player when he does play. Adames leaves the yard more often, but Correa hits the ball harder, strikes out less and reaches base more often. Adames has produced between 3-5 WAR and played in at least 139 games each of the past four seasons, but he has never had a season worth 5.0 or more WAR and has never been an All-Star. Correa, meanwhile, has played in 139 games just once since 2017, but the ceiling (as evidenced by his MLB-best 7.2 bWAR season in 2021) is considerably higher.
After a down year in 2023, Correa displayed both what remains in the tank and the dangers of relying on him to stay healthy in 2024. He slashed .310/.388/.517 with encouraging underlying numbers in an All-Star season but missed half the year with plantar fasciitis in his right foot. Even with Adames producing one of his best seasons ever — the former Brewers shortstop finished in the top 10 in MVP voting for the first time while posting career highs in hits, homers, RBI and stolen bases — Correa provided about the same value in about half the games.
I mentioned in our roundtable this week that I thought Adames was a perfect match for the Giants, who needed help up the middle defensively and a difference-maker in the lineup (the deal he was offered was exactly the max I said I would have given him). He was the type of player the Giants needed to get. But if I were picking between the two, I’d lean toward Correa, whose greater risk comes with greater reward.
Deesha Thosar: Adames. Perhaps the recency bias of his successful walk year is swaying me, but the 29-year-old’s career-high of 161 games in 2024 represent a major highlight, particularly when comparing him to Correa. As noted, the Giants broke their agreement with Correa a couple of winters ago because of medical issues, and there should be zero concerns about Adames’ physical health this time around. Given Buster Posey’s workhorse regimen during his prime years in San Francisco, it’s likely that Adames’ durability stood out to the new Giants front office leader — as it should. Avoiding major injuries, and playing through minor maladies, is not only becoming increasingly rare in today’s game, it’s an asset that Correa simply doesn’t have. Correa’s 86 games played in 2024 and the ongoing never-ending questions about his longevity are drawbacks that are really tough to look beyond.Â
Especially for someone like Posey, who is at the early stages of setting a new standard of stability for Giants baseball, it’s important to field a roster of players who can be counted on. Not only was Adames known as a clubhouse leader in Milwaukee, he was a dependable bat at a premium position, too. Of course, shortstops age rapidly, so there is a general risk of physical decline in the field with Adames. But the pop in his bat, which has played well at Oracle Park, can offset some of his defensive concerns, and his dependability goes a long way when considering a deal for the next five years. Adames has a .321 batting average, .381 on-base percentage, and .827 OPS in 63 plate appearances at Oracle. Now, the two home runs he’s hit in that span are lackluster, but that’s to be expected in the pitcher-friendly ballpark. I’m expecting Adames’ walk rate to offset some of those power concerns.Â
As for Correa, he always looks like he’s on the cusp of reclaiming his Houston superstar days — right up until he inevitably suffers an injury. There is no doubt at this point that those evaluating Correa for a five-year pact must readjust their expectations. Correa, who missed significant time with plantar fasciitis this past season, cannot make any promises about his finicky foot, which casts long-term concern on how much production to expect from the shortstop. I would be much more weary of going down that road with Correa than committing to a solid, albeit pricey, pact with Adames.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
We’re more than two weeks into MLB free agency, and not one major deal has been struck. That means the action is coming.Â
There will be a ton of it, as several nine-figure contracts will be negotiated in the coming weeks. None will be bigger, of course, than Juan Soto’s. But how big will it be? And for how long? And with whom?Â
Accordingly, FOX Sports MLB experts Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar weigh in on Soto, as well as a trio of aces and what teams will likely be the most active this winter in our latest roundtable.
1. There was a report that Alex Bregman is seeking a deal close to Manny Machado’s 11-year, $350 million extension. What is the max deal you’d offer Bregman if you were a GM, and what team should be most aggressive in signing him?
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Thosar: Well, Bregman vying to get close to Machado’s extension is overshooting just a little bit. I think he lands a deal in the AAV range of $26-28 million, and if he wants a long-term deal that’s going to eclipse the $200 million mark, then a seven-year deal for $200 million should be achievable for the longtime Astros third baseman. That’s as high as I’d go because Bregman would be 37 by the end of that deal, he already has a lot of mileage underneath him since his 2016 MLB debut, and there was one big concern this year with his walk rate, which was slashed in half in a huge departure from his career norm. Though I can’t imagine Bregman in another uniform besides Houston, the Phillies would be significantly upgraded with the third baseman replacing Alec Bohm. The Phillies are desperate to win the World Series with their tight-knit group before some core players depart for free agency, and adding Bregman to the mix would immediately make them one of the favorites to win it all.
Kavner: Bregman might not be the MVP candidate he was five years ago, but he is still a consistently well-above-average hitter who brings elite defense, rarely whiffs or strikes out and is good for around 20-25 homers a year. His hard-hit rate was actually the highest of his career last season, though it has to be at least a little concerning that the 30-year-old’s walk rate suddenly plummeted, that he chased a bit more than usual, and that he outperformed his expected stats in 2024.
There would be a lot of factors determining the max I’d offer, including the team I’m managing and the payroll I’m working with. If I were making decisions, I’d love to possess the financial freedom to add and extend players that A.J. Preller had when he gave Machado that extension prior to Peter Seidler’s passing. The reality is few GMs (including Preller now) can run the bill up so freely. While Bregman should easily exceed the six-year, $151 million extension that Matt Chapman received in San Francisco, I’d be stunned if he got anything close to Machado’s $350 million extension. The max I’d go is around eight years in the $220-225 million range. The Astros are the obvious team to watch, but the Tigers and Mariners should also be aggressive here.
2. Would you rather have Corbin Burnes for seven years, $250M, Blake Snell for five years, $180M or Max Fried for five years, $150M?
Kavner: If they were all getting paid the same I’d go Burnes — there’s a reason he will get the biggest contract of the trio — but at these numbers, I’d take Snell. Burnes is coming off another terrific season, but his descending strikeout rate would frighten me some when I’m offering upwards of $250 million. What I’d choose, though, would depend a bit on my team/roster construction. If I were a team on the fringes of the playoff picture just trying to contend, I’d probably go Fried for his consistency. But his inability to miss bats could cause problems in October (he has a career 3.07 regular season ERA; 5.10 in the postseason), and I’d need more information about the forearm issue that limited him this year. If I’m already a playoff contender looking for a final piece that can help me win a World Series, I’m taking Snell, the two-time Cy Young Award winner who just posted the highest strikeout rate (34.7%) and lowest hard-hit rate (28.7%) of his career. If he’s healthy and looking right in October, there aren’t many people on Earth who can rival his stuff.
Thosar: Max Fried. He shouldn’t hesitate to sign that proposed deal, particularly since he was earning half that amount this year in his All-Star season. Alongside Snell, Fried is the only left-handed ace in this year’s starting pitching class. But executives shouldn’t let the glamour of Snell’s two Cy Young awards get in the way of their decision-making. Fried is a year younger than Snell and more consistent than him, too. Fried, a World Series champion, is the only pitcher in the past five seasons to log over 600 innings and an ERA+ over 150 in the regular season. In the end, I think some of his forearm issues (and his attachment to a qualifying offer, thus resulting in costing whoever signs him a draft pick) will put some ice on his market. He seems likelier to sign a deal with an AAV in the range of $26-28 million.
3. A few weeks back, both of you expected Juan Soto to ultimately re-sign with the Yankees this offseason. How confident are you in that prediction now and what is your best guess for the terms of his deal?
Thosar: I still think the Yankees will ultimately sign Soto, but it’s going to be a tight race between both New York teams. Even though Hal Steinbrenner’s comments at the owners’ meetings in Manhattan on Wednesday were pretty underwhelming and seemed to lack extreme confidence that Soto would end up back in the Bronx, the Yankees owner also indicated that his sole priority this offseason is making sure the slugger returns, and I think he just might do whatever it takes to make sure that it happens. I think Cohen is going to drive the price up, so something like $707 million over 15 years might get the deal done for Soto and the Yankees. But they just can’t let Soto slip away, particularly after he catapulted them to the World Series, and I continue to think they won’t make that mistake.
Kavner: Less! If I were a Yankees fan, I would feel a little queasy after hearing Hal Steinbrenner say “no idea” and “we’ll be in the mix” when asked about his confidence in retaining Soto following their meeting with the soon-to-be-very-rich free agent. I do still expect one of the two New York teams is the ultimate destination, but it feels at least a little more likely now that Steve Cohen’s Mets or another AL East club outbids the Yankees. I think Soto surpasses the $600 million mark but doesn’t get to $700M. Let’s say 14 years, $644 million.
4. Would the Yankees be better off landing Soto on a megadeal, or adding a frontline starter plus two other All-Star bats?
Kavner: Soto. He’s in a different stratosphere from anyone else on the market, and what he provides to the Yankees lineup can’t be overstated. Just look at 2023, when they didn’t have Soto and were an 82-win team with a bottom-10 offense. In 2024 with Soto, they reached the World Series as a 94-win team with a top-three offense. Sure, there were other factors involved, but none bigger than Soto, who gave the Yankees the best 1-2 punch in the sport. He completely transformed the group, and there’s no way to replicate that kind of production.
Thosar: I don’t see why the Yankees, the most lucrative franchise in MLB, should be limited after signing Soto to staying put and putting a cap on their spending. Based on Steinbrenner expressing this week that Soto had questions about the Yankees’ player development system and long-term commitment to winning, the team knows it has work to do this winter to make sure their holes are filled with elite talent. Aaron Judge, before signing his long-term contract two years ago, also wanted confirmation from Steinbrenner that the club’s annual initiative is to win the World Series. So, it’s ultimately in their best interests to land Soto, and then add at least another mid-level starter and an All-Star bat to, at the very least, replace Anthony Rizzo at first.
Dodgers vs. Yankees: MINI-MOVIE of 2024 World Series
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5. Which playoff team from each league do you project will make the biggest upgrades to their current rosters this offseason? Which non-playoff teams will do the same?
Thosar: The Orioles are on the verge of losing their ace (Corbin Burnes) and home-run leader (Anthony Santander) if they don’t spend the big bucks and keep their top players in Baltimore, so I’m expecting them to make big upgrades not only to fill those holes, but also because this is the first full offseason they can flex their financial might under the new ownership group led by billionaire David Rubenstein. The Mets also have a lot of work to do this winter just to build a starting rotation, and they’re, of course, at the center of conversation with Soto. I’m expecting the Mets, in classic Steve Cohen style, to make at least one big splash this offseason, if not multiple.Â
As for non-playoff teams, the Giants have expressed that they want to spend big for multiple offseasons now, only for major deals to fall through or go haywire. Perhaps this is the year, under new president of baseball operations Buster Posey, they are really, truly aggressive and make big upgrades that pay immediate dividends. In the AL, I think this is the winter the Red Sox return to dominance in some way, shape or form. Whether that means landing Soto or a top starting pitcher, Boston has to go for it with a strong offseason after missing the postseason three years straight.
Kavner: The Mets — for obvious reasons, with Cohen’s checkbook backing a team on the rise — and the Tigers, who currently project to have an $80 million payroll. A couple of years ago, this was a team that operated $50 million higher. Even if Detroit doesn’t go crazy this winter, there should be some leeway to spend here, and the Tigers need to add more pop in the infield and starting pitching if they want to build on last year’s surprise run. Could they get involved in the Alex Bregman sweepstakes? At the least, I could see a situation similar to what the Royals did last winter where they give themselves a more viable path toward sustained success.
For the non-playoff teams, I’ll go with two AL East clubs who have already reportedly had meetings with Soto: the Blue Jays and the Red Sox. There’s little point in taking that meeting if you’re not at least considering spending big for difference-making talent. After failing to reel in Shohei Ohtani last winter and then going through the abomination of the 2024 season, the Blue Jays might be tempted to make some considerable overhauls. And for the Red Sox, another false “full-throttle” offseason can’t happen. It’s time to do what it takes to escape the throes of mediocrity. If we want to add a couple of non-playoff NL teams, I’m looking at the Giants and the Nationals.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
MLB postseason history suggests this Yankees-Dodgers matchup is likely over. Yankees-Dodgers World Series history suggests otherwise.Â
Playoff teams that have taken a 2-0 lead have won the series 77 of 92 times (84%). But in each of the past two Fall Classics between the Yankees and Dodgers (1978, 1981), and in three of their past five October meetings (1956), the home team won the first two games — only to lose the series.Â
So, which history is more likely to repeat itself in the 2024 World Series? FOX Sports MLB experts Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar weigh in on the opening two games in Los Angeles and what might be in store as the series shifts to New York.
1. What are you expecting from Shohei Ohtani for the rest of this series after he suffered a shoulder subluxation in Game 2?
Kavner: Tough to say until we see that first swing. Dave Roberts struck an encouraging tone when referencing Ohtani’s strength and range of motion, but it’s hard to know until we see it in action. Then again, this is Ohtani we’re talking about, the guy who hit a walk-off grand slam to get to 40/40 and had the greatest single game ever to get to 50/50. Even if he’s limited, his presence alone is important for the Dodgers if he’s able to go. Something tells me he has at least one big swing, one more defining moment in a season full of them, left in him.
Thosar: We still don’t have all the information required to really know how how much he’s recovered since Saturday, but my gut says I would be surprised if there’s a discernible difference from Ohtani at the plate — this is the World Series, and I’m expecting him to give it his all. If there’s a tweak in his mechanics due to the partial shoulder dislocation, that could take a couple of at-bats in order for him to get used to how best to swing without pain. At least in Game 3, I would guess Ohtani won’t be as much of a threat to steal to ensure he doesn’t further injure himself.
2. How much of Aaron Judge’s postseason struggles do you think are mental as opposed to mechanical at this point?
Thosar: His poor swing decisions and how much he was chasing offspeed pitches are a strong indication that Judge is in his head. It’s not like his talent left the building overnight, and though he’s faced tough pitching in the World Series, his star teammates have found a way to break through at some point in the nine-inning game, so that can’t be an excuse. Now that the narrative that he struggles in the playoffs has reached a fever pitch and put all the pressure on Judge to come through big in Game 3, it will be extremely important for him to block out the noise and remind himself he was the best player in the major leagues the previous six months.
Kavner: Probably a combo, but it has to at least be part of the mix. When you’re saying things like, “I’m failing them,” how can it not? Mookie Betts, when he was going through his October rut, talked about how he took hundreds of swings a day and shut off social media for a period. Once he got some production late in the NLDS, he regained his confidence and looked like himself again. Betts, however, strikes out about half as often as Judge.Â
That’s the hard part for the Yankees captain, who has struck out in six of his nine at-bats this series and in 13 of his 22 at-bats going back to Game 3 of the ALCS. If there’s any weakness or swing and miss to a player’s game, it will get exploited in the postseason. The good thing for him, there’s still time to rewrite his October story. But it has to happen fast.
3. What has surprised you most through two games?
Kavner: How different Freddie Freeman has looked. When he went down at the end of September with his ankle sprain, it was supposed to be a 4-6 week injury, so it might make sense that he has turned a corner a month later. But that timeline was assuming he was resting and rehabbing, not playing through the issue (and often feeling worse off for it). He’s a daunting presence in the Dodgers’ lineup, regardless of the production, but considering how much the ankle had sapped his power for the first two rounds, I didn’t think a week off would be enough to turn him from a singles machine into a home run-mashing difference-maker. His teammates, however, clearly saw a change in that week between the NLCS and World Series. He looks like a completely different player in the World Series. Usually, it’s running that starts to cause him problems (which is why he was so much more limited late in the NLCS). I’ll be curious to see how his ankle holds up the longer this series goes.Â
Besides that, the other biggest stunner for me also involved Freeman. I was surprised to see the Yankees turn to starter Nestor Cortes, who hadn’t pitched all month with an elbow issue, in the middle of an inning, in the highest of leverage spots, to face the top of the Dodgers’ order in the 10th inning in Game 1. Obviously, we saw how that turned out.
Thosar: Judge’s complete absence as a legitimate threat has been very surprising. Even if there was a regression, and he wasn’t getting as many base hits, I expected him to at least get on base by drawing his walks against Dodgers starters Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, considering both pitchers should’ve been nervous to pitch to him in the zone. But the more he flailed at the plate, the more comfortable pitchers became pitching to him. By the end of Game 2, he was an automatic out, and I don’t think anyone saw that coming.
4. Do you believe this Series will make it back to Los Angeles?
Thosar: I think the Series is going back to Los Angeles because I don’t think the Yankees will crumble without a fight, and I’m expecting Judge to wake up in the Bronx in front of the home fans. I think the Yankees slugger needed a rest day and a reset more than anything, so after a break from the madness on Sunday, he should return to more of a semblance of himself in more familiar surroundings. There’s a good chance New York wins two of the next three games with three consecutive right-handers starting on the hill, but that fight has to get going Monday with a strong start right out of the gates at home. If the Yankees drop to 0-3, I’m way less confident the Series will go back to L.A.
Kavner: I do, although I also think the Dodgers take one in the Bronx. The Yankees’ biggest advantage in this series was always its rotation. It hasn’t paid off yet, and it was a massive blow for them to lose the Gerrit Cole start, especially considering how well Cole pitched, but their upper hand with starting pitching also had to do with depth. Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil have been better this year than any healthy pitchers the Dodgers have after Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.Â
Then again, bet against Walker Buehler in a big game at your own peril. He displayed some really encouraging signs with the whiffs he was getting his last time out, particularly with his secondary stuff. Still, the Dodgers will have to run a bullpen game in Game 4 without Evan Phillips, and then the Yankees get another Gerrit Cole start. The theme this postseason for the Dodgers has been how their fans have finally gotten to celebrate their October success, the way they couldn’t when the team won in 2020. The Dodgers clinched this year’s NLDS at home, then clinched the NLCS at home. My gut says it’s 3-2 going back to Los Angeles, where they’ll have the chance to finish it at Dodger Stadium again.
5. Do you think the outcome of this series will have any impact on Juan Soto’s free-agent decision? Do you expect him to ultimately sign with the Yankees?
Kavner: Not really. You could come up with narratives either way — that he’d be more willing to stay if they win the World Series, or that he could be motivated to finish the job if they fall just short — but ultimately, money talks. There’s a team across the bridge that has a lot of it, but I would be stunned if the Yankees didn’t find a way to do whatever it takes to keep Soto in pinstripes. They would never hear the end of it.
Thosar: It will be harder for Soto to walk away from the Yankees if they win a championship together, I think. In that same vein, it would be much more difficult for the Yankees to do anything but make a competitive offer to Soto, one that he likely couldn’t refuse, right after possibly winning a title. Ultimately, I expect Soto to sign with the Yankees because he’s been a perfect fit in the Bronx and has excelled in New York — as evidenced by his career highs in home runs, hits, and runs scored. Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman will have to do their part by meeting or getting close to his asking price.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
The Astros and Orioles were two of the most talented teams in baseball this year. Two games into the postseason, they’ve both been swept at home.
It’s been another unpredictable day of wild-card play Wednesday.
FOX Sports MLB writers Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar will be offering their top takeaways from all the action.
Astros’ rebuilt bullpen blows up in stunning fashion
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At Minute Maid Park, there was a team that was poised, that was collected under pressure, that got the big hits and the big outs when they needed them most.
But it wasn’t the one seemingly equipped to handle those situations.
The Astros were playing in their eighth straight postseason. They had made the League Championship Series a record seven straight years and had played in more postseason games and racked up more playoff wins since the start of that run than any team in baseball. It began with AJ Hinch at the helm. After an unceremonious exit, the Detroit manager was now in the visitor’s dugout, leading a young and inexperienced group that defied the odds and caught fire at the right time.
The Tigers hadn’t made the playoffs in 10 years, had sold at the deadline and entered August with less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. The average age of the Tigers lineup was a tick over 25. Only one player from that group, Matt Vierling, had any postseason experience before.
And yet, they were the group that looked composed in the highest-leverage moments. The pressure was all in the home dugout after the Tigers went into Houston and stole Game 1. And when the Astros’ offense finally made an appearance in Game 2, pushing the go-ahead run across in the seventh inning, it was the novice group that looked at ease.
Houston had won 47 straight playoff games when leading in the eighth inning or later. This year in particular featured a bullpen built to hold late leads. The Astros had awarded star closer Josh Hader a five-year, $95-million deal, giving them essentially two closers in Hader and Ryan Pressly to shut down opponents. There were cracks from the start. Hader and Pressly each had ERAs over 6.00 at the end of April. They settled in as the season went on, though neither was pristine. Pressly allowed runs in four straight appearances in August. Hader surrendered six runs in his last three appearances of the regular season. Still, the late innings figured to be a strength when the calendar turned to October. Hader didn’t allow a run in any of his five postseason appearances in San Diego last year. Pressly entered Game 2 with a streak of 20 consecutive postseason appearances without allowing an earned run.
On Wednesday, history and experience didn’t matter.
Pressly allowed the game-tying run on a wild pitch. Andy Ibañez, who had just six extra-base hits against fastballs all season, delivered the knockout blow on a sinker from Hader, one of the best fastball pitchers in the game.
So now the Tigers and their band of makeshift openers move on, the hottest team in the sport demonstrating that the last two months are no fluke. And the stunned Astros are left to wonder how many more runs are left with this group as Alex Bregman, one of the defining members of their nearly decade-long run, prepares to enter free agency. — Rowan Kavner
Royals wanted it more than Orioles
Is anyone actually surprised the Orioles went out with a whimper in the playoffs after stumbling through August and September? On the heels of a 1-for-7 showing with runners in scoring position in their Game 1 loss — all while Corbin Burnes delivered an eight-inning, one-run gem — the Orioles had to come out aggressive and energetic against Seth Lugo in an attempt to save their season. Instead, this was another feeble showing from the Baltimore offense, scoring just one run in 18 innings, unable even to capitalize with a rally when Lugo had so obviously lost his stuff in the fifth. In the end, Gunnar Henderson struck out swinging half-heartedly at two of Lucas Erceg’s changeups, his disposition like their season was already over before he even stepped up to the plate.
The lack of intensity and spirit from this still-young Baltimore team was the complete opposite of how Bobby Witt Jr.’s Royals advanced to the ALDS for the first time in almost a decade. The MVP-caliber shortstop will get plenty of love for his game-winning RBI single, but what stood out to me about Kansas City was the effort from its bullpen. Royals relievers combined to pitch 7 2/3 scoreless innings in the wild-card series, which was essential since their lineup only produced three runs in the two games. The relief corps’ excellence has played an enormous role in getting the Royals to this point.
Alas, that dominant pitching staff will face Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and the Yankees next. And, in the Bronx, there will be a lot more energy and intensity in their faces than there was this week at Camden Yards. — Deesha Thosar
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
The American League might’ve had the more stacked All-Star roster, but there’s no shortage of talent in the National League playoff field. That much was evident in Part 2 of our superteam draft.
After selecting AL teams — each roster includes eight position players, one designated hitter, four starting pitchers and one closer — Fox Sports’ Deesha Thosar and Rowan Kavner moved on to their ultimate NL rosters. Only players expected to be playing this October were eligible. (Worth noting: Since pitching triple crown winner Chris Sale is unavailable for the wild-card round, he was ultimately ruled out for this draft, too.)
The writers could assemble their teams in any order but had to declare what position each player would occupy upon selecting them. Again, they took some … creative liberties with those positions. And, again, the competitive juices got flowing.
Since Thosar drafted first in the AL version, Kavner got first pick for the NL portion. From there, the two writers switched off picks, and the back-and-forth barbs and slights commenced until two superteams formed.
No. 1 (Kavner): Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers DH Rowan: It takes an otherworldly type of talent for a DH to go first here. Ohtani, who leads the National League in WAR at a time when he can only hit, is that singular talent. He has already delivered plenty of unforgettable moments in his first season with the Dodgers, including a walk-off grand slam to get to 40/40 and one of the greatest single-game performances of all time to record the first 50/50 season in MLB history. I expect more to come in his first ever postseason.
Deesha: Keep it snippy, Kavner. I have a soccer game to play. We don’t need 150 words on why you selected Ohtani first.
No. 2 (Thosar): Francisco Lindor, Mets SS Deesha: It’s only right for the NL MVP runner-up to go second. He carried the Mets all year with a sore back to prove it. On my squad, he won’t need to do as much heavy lifting, but the clutch performances will be welcomed.
No. 3 (Kavner): Bryce Harper, Phillies 1B Rowan: As good as the two-time MVP is during the regular season, there’s another level the 2022 NLCS MVP tends to find in October. With a career postseason OPS close to 1.000, he brings a level of playoff intimidation and experience to my squad that few can match.
No. 4 (Thosar): Mookie Betts, Dodgers 2B Deesha: It’s time for Betts to get redemption for last year’s 0-for-11 showing in the postseason and starting at second will help him shake off those demons. Plus, Betts himself has admitted he believes he plays better when he’s part of the infield mix, so I’m setting him up for optimum success.
Rowan: You’ve been thinking hard, huh? Had that SS/RF ready to go at 2B.
Deesha: Overthinking is the name of the game.
Rowan: That angle throwing from 2b might feel a little different now …Â
Deesha: Gotta be easier than rolling a bowling ball.
No. 5 (Kavner): Fernando TatÃs Jr., Padres RF Rowan: Injuries have not been kind to Tatis lately, but they didn’t stop him from winning a Platinum Glove in his first full season in right field last year, and they didn’t stop him from producing when on the field this season. This is still one of the sport’s most dynamic talents, as evidenced by his .958 OPS since the start of June.
Deesha: Arghhhhhhhh.Whatever, .607 OPS in his last seven days.
No. 6 (Thosar): Kyle Schwarber, Phillies LF Deesha: Postseason hero with a .941 OPS and 20 home runs in 65 playoff games? Sign me up. I’m asking for a little more from him as my left fielder when he’s used to DHing, but he handled it all the way to the World Series in 2022, and he can handle it again.
Rowan: Lotta open grass on that defense.
Deesha: My starters won’t even let balls go out that far.
No. 7 (Kavner): William Contreras, Brewers C Rowan: Another year, another .800-plus OPS for the Brewers backstop, who leads all NL catchers in hits, homers, doubles and RBIs. Among NL catchers with 100 games played this year, he leads in every slash line category. He’s hitting the ball harder and whiffing less than ever before, and he played a vital role in putting Milwaukee atop the Central. Sign me up.
No. 8 (Thosar): Zack Wheeler, Phillies SP Deesha: Wheeler doesn’t get nearly enough credit for being arguably the best big-game pitcher in the game right now. He’s consistently calm under pressure-packed moments, and then backs it up with a 2.42 postseason ERA across 11 outings (10 starts). Ace.
No. 9. (Kavner): Manny Machado, Padres 3B Rowan: It was a difficult start to the year for Machado as he worked his way back from elbow surgery, but the six-time All-Star looks like himself again. He has an .879 OPS since the start of June, and he has settled back in at the hot corner after DH’ing early in the year. That game-ending triple play last week was something to behold.
Deesha: I deserve that for going for my ace that early
No. 10 (Thosar): Jackson Merrill, Padres CF Deesha: Besides helping Schwarber cover some (most) of that outfield grass, I’m expecting the Rookie of the Year candidate to have a banger of a first-career postseason on a red-hot Padres team. He had a .982 OPS with seven home runs in late and close games and nine homers in high-leverage situations. With the season on the line, I won’t be sweating it when Merrill is at the plate.
Rowan: That’ll help!
Deesha: Why do you think I put Schwarbs in left?Twice now you’ve missed out on the best CF available.
Rowan: I’ll live with what I’ve got.
No. 11 (Kavner): Willy Adames, Brewers SS Rowan: Getting a guy with more than 30 homers, 20 steals and 100 RBIs at this point in the draft? I’ll take it. Adames will be getting paiiiid this winter regardless, but a strong postseason showing can only help the impending free agent’s case. The only NL player who has knocked in more runs than Adames this season is Ohtani. Nice to have them both on the squad.
Deesha: He’s gonna be an interesting one in free agency.
No. 12 (Thosar): Teoscar Hernández, Dodgers RF Deesha: The All-Star slugger finished his one-year deal with the Dodgers by becoming BFFs with Ohtani and crushing 33 home runs with a .891 OPS that topped all NL outfielders with a minimum of 210 plate appearances. He fits right into my now stacked outfield, too.
No. 13 (Kavner): Jackson Chourio, Brewers LF Rowan: I got a 50/50 guy to start, a 30/20 guy with my last pick and now a 20/20 guy in Chourio. Extraordinary rookie seasons from Paul Skenes and Merrill have taken some of the attention away from Chourio, but the Brewers rookie has an OPS over .900 in the second half. He has figured this thing out.
No. 14 (Thosar): Freddie Freeman, Dodgers 1B Deesha: I didn’t want to insult him by taking him too much later, but after Rowan took Harper early, I knew I could wait. Freeman being in the second tier of first basemen just goes to show how stacked this position is in the NL and how lucky we all are to get to watch them go to work in the playoffs again.
No. 15 (Kavner): Dylan Cease, Padres SP Rowan: It’s past time to take my first arm, and with Chris Sale off the table due to injury, I feel good getting a guy in Cease who has a no-hitter under his belt this year and an elite strikeout rate right up there with the best in the game.
No. 16 (Thosar): Michael King, Padres SP Deesha: King taking the ball for Game 1 of the wild-card round against the Braves is exactly the kind of energy I need in my rotation. It’s been an excellent year for the righty after he was transplanted from the Bronx for Juan Soto, to the point where King flashed a lower regular-season ERA (2.85) than his rotation-mate Cease.
Rowan: Let me know if this is allowed …
No. 17 (Kavner): Trea Turner, Phillies 2B Rowan: OK, time to play my “you-used-Santander-out-of-position-in-the-AL-draft” card. If he can be put in left field, I feel like I can conjure memories of 2021 Turner and bump him over to second. A lineup with plenty of power and speed gets even more.
Deesha: Only allowed if he played there this year! This is not like Mookie at second!
Rowan: Santander didn’t play LF this year!
Deesha: Oh, you’re right, it was last year, lol.
Rowan: And he played one game there last year.
Deesha: You need all the help you can get right now, so out of pity, this is fine.
No. 18 (Thosar): Max Fried, Braves SP Deesha: Fried will have to be the starting pitcher to step up for the Braves with Sale down for the foreseeable future, and he ended the regular season with the right stuff to get the job done. The lefty takes a 2.39 ERA over his final eight starts of the year into the postseason.
No. 19 (Kavner): Reynaldo López, Braves SP Rowan: There was always the injury risk for López as his innings mounted in his first season as a full-time starter since the COVID year, but he has persevered through forearm and shoulder issues in the second half and remains lights out every time he takes the mound. Paul Skenes is the only starter who’s thrown 100 innings this year with a lower ERA.
Deesha: I went back and forth between him and Fried foreva.Â
No. 20 (Thosar): Robert Suarez, Padres closer Deesha: Sure, Suarez surrendered some ugly blown saves this season when he was fatigued, but how can you not go with the guy who has the most saves among NL playoff closers? He’s the final piece of the puzzle in a Padres bullpen that is stacked, and I trust him to get the final three outs when the season is on the line.
No. 21 (Kavner): Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers SP Rowan: He’s one of the postseason’s biggest wild cards — and the Dodgers’ biggest X-factor. Yamamoto didn’t go more than five innings in any of his four September outings after missing nearly three months with a shoulder issue, but the swing-and-miss stuff is still there to dominate as long as he can hold up, and he has the chance to end his stateside debut on a high note. The Dodgers’ pitching staff needs it.
Deesa: Nooooooo! Whyyyyyyy? Aaaaaaaaghhhhhh!
Rowan: We have no idea what we’re getting from him, but it might be good. Also, he’ll never go on short rest.Â
No. 22 (Thosar): J.D. Martinez, Mets DH Deesha: The veteran slugger already hit rock bottom with his 0-for-33 hitless stretch in September, so it can only go up from here. I’m relying on Martinez to find his 2018 postseason magic (.300 BA, .923 OPS, 14 games) that helped the Red Sox win a championship.
No. 23 (Kavner): Devin Williams, Brewers closer Rowan: A back injury held Williams out for the first half — and made the Brewers’ success all the more remarkable — but the shutdown closer and his airbender changeup are back in typical form. He didn’t allow a run in any of his final 13 appearances of the year, and opponents managed just four hits against him during that stretch.
No. 24 (Thosar): Freddy Peralta, Brewers SPÂ Deesha: Another wild-card Game 1 starter in my rotation is a win for me. Peralta will get the ball to open the Brewers’ postseason run after a solid regular season that featured a career-high 32 starts to accompany the ninth-best ERA (3.68) among NL starters who will pitch in October.
No. 25 (Kavner): Jack Flaherty, Dodgers SP Rowan: How much do the Tigers wish they still had this guy? The most significant arm to move at the deadline hasn’t pitched to quite the same level in Los Angeles as he did in Detroit to start the year, but there’s a reason he was so highly coveted. This is great value for a pitcher who ranks in the top four among all qualified MLB starters this year in both strikeout rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Deesha: I forgot about him.
Rowan: I was stuck between the Phillies guys and him. He has been … not as good lately.
No. 26 (Thosar): J.T. Realmuto, Phillies C Deesha:Â This was the first time since 2016 that Realmuto finished a full season with fewer than 17 home runs, but he was limited to just 99 games due to injury. Now that he’s fully healthy, I’m expecting Realmuto to be a catalyst on my squad, bringing veteran presence and star power to the bottom of my lineup.
No. 27 (Kavner): Michael Harris II, Braves CF Rowan: It hasn’t been the season the former Rookie of the Year would have hoped for, but injuries and poor luck were part of it. He’s still hitting the ball hard, he’s still an elite outfielder, and the 23-year-old is turning his season around at the perfect time. He was one of MLB’s most valuable players in September, and I would expect that to continue as the calendar turns. Also, there’s a dearth of center fielders in the National League.
Deesha: Lol.
Rowan: Also kinda crazy we’re not drafting Jurickson Profar.
Deesha: Yeah, I thought that too.
No. 28 (Thosar): Mark Vientos, Mets 3B Deesha:Â Listen, Vientos ended the regular season with the highest OPS (.861) among NL third basemen with a minimum of 300 plate appearances this season. He also had the fourth-highest fWAR (3.2) across all qualified NL third basemen, and that’s nothing to sneeze at. He stayed on the field, parked 27 home runs, and became one of the best in the league at his position. The hot corner doesn’t faze Vientos, and he fits right in on my stacked squad.
Rowan: OMGGGGGGGGG
Deesha: Alec Bohm is somewhere crying.
Team Rowan’s starting lineup:
1. Shohei Ohtani, DH 2. Fernando TatÃs Jr., RF 3. Bryce Harper, 1B 4. Manny Machado, 3B 5. Willy Adames, SS 6. William Contreras, C 7. Trea Turner, 2B 8. Michael Harris II, CF 9. Jackson Chourio, LF
SP1: Dylan Cease SP2: Reynaldo López SP3: Jack Flaherty SP4: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Closer: Devin Williams
Team Deesha’s starting lineup:
1. Francisco Lindor, SS 2. Mookie Betts, 2B 3. Freddie Freeman, 1B 4. Kyle Schwarber, LF 5. Teoscar Hernández, RF 6. Jackson Merrill, CF 7. J.D. Martinez, DH 8. Matt Vientos, 3B 9. J.T. Realmuto, C
SP1: Zack Wheeler SP2: Michael King SP3: Max Fried SP4: Freddy Peralta Closer: Robert Suárez
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Welcome to the most unpredictable time of the year. While parity in Major League Baseball seems greater than ever, it’s been a fabric of the postseason since the turn of the century. No team has won consecutive World Series titles since the 2000 Yankees, a streak that will continue as the defending champion Texas Rangers have nothing to defend this October.Â
While there are new and familiar favorites heading into these playoffs, recent history has shown that the past six months should be taken with a grain of salt. It’s all about who can catch fire over the next four weeks. And all 12 — well, 13 for now — remaining clubs are contenders.
With that, FOX Sports MLB experts Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar make the case for why each postseason participant will and won’t win the World Series in 2024.Â
(Teams are listed by seeding. The National League’s final two wild-card seeds will be determined Monday by the Braves-Mets doubleheader. World Series odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)
Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: The Yankees own the best offense in the American League, and even though there’s a steep drop-off in production after their top-heavy heart of the order, they’ve still managed to overpower opposing pitching staffs throughout the course of a nine-inning game. Facing Aaron Judge and Juan Soto is a pitcher’s nightmare, and if Giancarlo Stanton can replicate his .963 postseason OPS and Austin Wells recaptures some of his late-summer magic, there will be little choice but to go through New York’s dynamic duo, rather than just give them free passes. The Big Three of Judge, Soto, and Gerrit Cole operating at their best this October gives the Yankees a clear advantage that could take them all the way to the Fall Classic.
Why they won’t: Defense and silly, unforced errors. Gleyber Torres‘ suboptimal baserunning is a glaring issue, particularly because no other player has been thrown out at the plate more than the Yankees’ second baseman this year, but he’s not the only one with mistakes on the basepaths. The Yankees are ranked dead last in baserunning metrics and Soto, too, has made questionable decisions while attempting to advance. Too often this year, we’ve seen Alex Verdugo failing to hustle out of the box, and other players at times lacking heads-up decision-making. Rookie Jasson Dominguez has been having quite the adventure in left field, struggling to make catchable plays and generally appearing uncomfortable. Other playoff contenders are much cleaner and sharper on defense, to the point where this flaw could be fatal. — Deesha Thosar
Why they won’t: Cleveland’s elite arms at the back end can stifle any opponent, but building a lead to get to those behemoths will be an issue. The Guardians rank 17th in OPS on the season and 26th since the break. Their offense has the lowest hard-hit rate in baseball while their starting pitchers rank 24th in ERA. No team has won a World Series with a rotation that ranked outside the top 10 in ERA since the 2015 Royals. The only move the team made to address the issue was trading for Alex Cobb, who was injured the entire first half. He has been limited to three starts all season. Matthew Boyd provided a second-half spark, but aside from Tanner Bibee, the options don’t exactly inspire confidence. — Rowan Kavner
Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: They cannot be counted out until the final out of an elimination game. Many people don’t want to hear this, but what the Astros have done to win their seventh division title in the past eight years is nothing short of remarkable. They were 10 games behind the first-place Mariners in late June, dealing with injuries to multiple key players, only to clinch the AL West again with their third different manager in six years. The Astros have won before by cruising, but these past couple of years they’ve gone into October battle-tested to preserve a now eight-year streak of playoff appearances. That kind of pedigree can frighten opponents before even stepping onto the field. Once again, Houston has the roster talent and the street cred to get it done.
Why they won’t: Yordan Alvarez’s knee injury and potential first-year manager stumbles. The Astros slugger has been such an integral part of their recent runs, including slugging six homers and tallying 15 RBI in 11 playoff games last year. With their playoff weapon dealing with a sprained right knee, it’s unclear if Alvarez will even play in the postseason, let alone be healthy enough to do anything but DH. That could limit plate appearances for catchers Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini. Alvarez’s injury couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Astros. Then there’s the unknown element of Joe Espada’s first time managing in the playoffs, and all the nerves and indecision that could accompany it. Espada has done well to this point, but he’ll have to stay intact as the lights get brighter. — Deesha Thosar
Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: A talented offense and a certified ace in Corbin Burnes. Baltimore’s No. 1 starter becomes a free agent this winter, and the Orioles will be depending on him to take them to the World Series while they have him, particularly because most of the arms behind Burnes are less than threatening. Since 2020, only Wheeler (24.5) has a higher fWAR than Burnes (21.4). Competitive to his core, it will be fascinating to watch Burnes test his own limits in Baltimore’s playoff run, mere days and weeks before he explores the market under agent Scott Boras’ guidance. There is already no doubt he will enter free agency as baseball’s top available pitcher, and it will only boost his appeal if he’s towing a World Series ring.
Why they won’t: Their suboptimal second half. The Orioles were the best team in baseball to begin the year, only to look like a completely different ballclub since the All-Star break. Their bullpen has really hurt them these past few months, ranking 27th in the majors in ERA (4.60) and 18th in WHIP (1.28) since July 19. They had several chances to catch the Yankees, who also spiraled into the All-Star break, for the division lead. But the O’s squandered any and every opportunity to capitalize down the stretch. There have been key players in prolonged slumps, and it’s easy to forget that this is still a young roster because of their surprising division-clinching race to the playoffs last year. Momentum is still possible, but the O’s might have too many question marks to answer at this stage. — Deesha Thosar
Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: They have a superstar in Bobby Witt Jr. putting together one of the greatest all-around seasons from a shortstop ever and one of the top catchers and rotations in the playoff field. Their starting pitchers will enter the postseason with the lowest ERA of any team playing in October. In Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans and Michael Wacha, the Royals boast three starting pitchers who rank in the top 20 in ERA. The club’s relievers haven’t been quite so reliable — but that hasn’t been an issue lately. The Kansas City bullpen ranks in the top 10 in ERA this month, settling in behind boosts from Daniel Lynch, who hasn’t allowed a run since getting recalled in late August, and deadline addition Lucas Erceg.
Why they won’t: At a time you’d hope to be building some momentum going into October, the Royals have a losing record this month. It’s not a coincidence that coincides with the loss of their first baseman. The lack of depth in the lineup has been exposed after Vinnie Pasquantino’s thumb injury late last month. Since he went down, the Kansas City offense ranks last in the majors in every slash line category. Pasquantino could be back for the postseason, but the length of the lineup will remain an issue. Of the 13 Royals batters with at least 20 at-bats this month, seven are hitting under .200. And while the Royals’ bullpen has been strong lately, it’s still a group that ranks in the bottom half of the sport in ERA and strikeout rate in the season’s second half. — Rowan Kavner
Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: Youthful exuberance, paired with legitimate talent, can be a secret weapon in the postseason. Whether it’s 24-year-old outfielder Riley Greene’s .827 OPS, or Kerry Carpenter’s strong return from injury, or the impactful prospects they called up to complement emerging talents, all the Tigers do lately is win. Plus, Detroit’s bullpen sneakily owns the fourth-best ERA in the big leagues. The relief unit of Jason Foley, Tyler Holton, and Will Vest has been all kinds of dominant, and that’s a huge X-factor as long as the Tigers offense can give them some run support. A.J. Hinch is managing this year’s Cinderella Story team and Detroit’s underdog element could be the spoiler for some playoff favorites — even though it’s a long shot.
Why they won’t: Ultimately, this is a lineup lacking stars with no real experience having what it takes to get through the gauntlet that is postseason baseball. We saw how quickly the young and inexperienced Orioles were dismantled by the Texas Rangers as early as the wild-card round last year, and it would surprise exactly no one if the Tigers fell to the same fate. Their lack of pitching depth is another concern in October. Imagine how much better their chances would’ve been if they hadn’t traded Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers, and he was lined up to pitch behind ace Tarik Skubal? It’s astonishing that Detroit is even on this list, and for that, the club deserves a spending spree from ownership this winter for quality veterans who will support 2024’s promising roster. — Deesha Thosar
Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: Their pitching staff is depleted, they’ve won fewer than 100 games in a full season for the first time since 2018 and yet … here the Dodgers are, the top seed in the National League with the best record in baseball. Despite their deficiencies, they have Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman (assuming he is able to return from his ankle injury in time for the playoffs). That trio plus a highly capable supporting cast behind them led by Teoscar Hernández, Will Smith and Max Muncy might be enough to outslug the pitching concerns. The deadline acquisitions of Jack Flaherty, Michael Kopech and Tommy Edman could be just enough to give them everything they need.
Why they won’t: So, about those pitching concerns … how many playoff games would a team win with a rotation starring some combination of Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone, Dustin May, River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan? Well, all of them will be unavailable to the Dodgers when the calendar flips to October. Considering the up-and-down season for Walker Buehler and how little there is available to the Dodgers behind him, there’s a lot riding on the success of Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who missed nearly three months with a shoulder injury. Too much, perhaps. — Rowan Kavner
Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: They’re a well-balanced team. The Phillies are smooth in several facets of the game, including a dominant starting rotation led by Zack Wheeler, one of the most cool-under-pressure arms in the majors, and a potent offense that’s ranked fifth in MLB in slugging. The Phillies are as hungry as they’ve ever been to bring a parade back to Philly after getting stung by the Astros in the World Series in 2022 and collapsing versus the Diamondbacks in the NLCS last year. After a heartbreaking offseason and a determined regular season, they want to prove they can finish the job. They’re already in better shape than in years past by winning their first division title since 2011. The Phillies enter October as one of the top three teams to beat, alongside the Yankees and Dodgers.
Why they won’t: The bullpen, and the offense when Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber aren’t crushing home runs. Dave Dombrowski did a good job at the trade deadline by bolstering the relief corps, the Craig Kimbrel-induced Achilles heel that more or less led to their collapse in last year’s NLCS. This time around, the addition of Carlos Esteves in the mix should help a great deal, but their bullpen is still ranked 16th in MLB in ERA, with several other playoff contenders sporting better, more complete units. The Phillies might need their starters to go as deep as possible to minimize bullpen usage, and even then there are no guarantees with this group. Plus, the offense can be somewhat flaky when the usual suspects aren’t crushing bombs, and that’s a concern for an otherwise dominant Phillies team. — Deesha Thosar
Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: The Brewers traded Corbin Burnes … and still managed to assemble one of the best pitching staffs in the sport. Freddy Peralta leads an unheralded rotation that includes a rookie in Tobias Myers who deserves more attention than he has received, but what guides this team is a bullpen that leads the NL with a 3.17 ERA. The group was already electric with Devin Williams out and, to no one’s surprise, looks even better since his return. The shutdown closer hasn’t allowed a run in September. Offensively, the loss of Christian Yelich hurts, but the power of William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins, the speed of Brice Turang and the combination of both provided by Willy Adames and breakout rookie Jackson Chourio gives manager Pat Murphy plenty to work with.
Why they won’t: That offense has started to show cracks, ranking 27th in batting average and 26th in on-base percentage in September. Lefties in particular can cause problems for the lineup. But the biggest red flag is the rotation, which just might not have enough elite arms to carry the team through October. Peralta orchestrated his second straight 200-strikeout season, but Myers is a rookie, Colin Rea has a 7.43 ERA over his last seven appearances and veteran addition Frankie Montas has an ERA close to 5.00 on the year. — Rowan Kavner
Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: The new-look Padres offense with Luis Arráez at the top boasts the highest batting average and lowest whiff and strikeout rates in the sport. Jurickson Profar is having a career year at age 31, Jackson Merrill has emerged as a Rookie of the Year contender at 21, and their stars are hot at the right time. But it goes beyond the offense. The Padres have been the best team in baseball in the second half in large part due to a pitching staff that has the National League’s lowest ERA since the break. San Diego’s rotation is whole again and pitching lights out in September, and the deadline-bolstered bullpen is one of the sport’s most imposing. All the pieces are there for a deep run.
Why they won’t: As good as the pitching staff has been, it’s never great going into the postseason with the ninth inning feeling unsettled. Robert Suarez is an All-Star this year, but he has a 6.00 ERA and three blown saves in September and has allowed hits in 11 of his past 14 appearances. Michael King has played a vital role in the rotation’s success, but he’s in uncharted territory having already shattered his previous high in innings pitched. Behind him, a season-ending injury to Ha-Seong Kim now will force the Padres to shift Xander Bogaerts back to shortstop. It’s nitpicking, but that’s not an ideal defensive scenario in San Diego. — Rowan Kavner
Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions:Chris Sale, set to win his first career Cy Young, is as lethal a weapon as it gets in the playoffs. The 1-2 punch of Sale and Max Fried, plus righty Reynaldo Lopez and the emergence of Spencer Schwellenbach, makes Atlanta scary in a three or five-game series. Pitching wins in October, and Atlanta’s arms have the best ERA in the majors — yes, topping even Seattle’s pitching staff. No team has come close to matching the staff’s total strikeouts, the bullpen is strong and the entire unit is capable of carrying the Braves to their second championship since 2021. Plus, it seems like Atlanta excels when its expectations are low – à la ‘21 without Ronald Acuña Jr. It’s not like things went well when they flashed the best regular-season record in baseball last year, only to collapse against their rival Phillies in the NLDS. Perhaps, coming out of the wild-card side of the postseason bracket will be more ideal.
Why they won’t: Then again, maybe this just isn’t their year. As much credit as the Braves should receive for making it this far without their stars, this is exactly the time of year when it’s hard to ignore the onslaught of injuries to Acuña, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, and even A.J. Minter. The Braves don’t have as much depth as they’re used to relying on in the playoffs, and that could come back to hurt them. Their offense is another typical area of reliability that has underwhelmed this year. In terms of wRC+, Marcell Ozuna is the only hitter in the Braves lineup to appear among the top 45 hitters in the majors this season. Atlanta’s on-base percentage is just league average this year, and that could be especially concerning in the postseason against the top pitchers in the game. — Deesha Thosar
Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: Grimace is determined to throw out the first pitch in a World Series game. The Mets’ quirky season has revealed a sense of camaraderie and chemistry that can be the stuff of magic for World Series champions. There is something to be said of the club digging itself out of the basement in May to becoming one of the hottest teams in baseball, led by a first-year manager in Carlos Mendoza who expertly guided a sinking ship to October baseball. Stars like Francisco Lindor (enjoying an MVP caliber season), J.D. Martinez (2018 World Series winner), and Edwin DÃaz (one of the best closers in baseball) can be dangerous in the playoffs. But Pete Alonso has been somewhat of a sleeping bear this season who very well could wake up just in time before his upcoming free agency to be the wildest of the bunch, yet.
Why they won’t: While Sean Manaea and Luis Severino had bounce-back seasons that were critical to the Mets clinching a playoff spot, it remains concerning whether the rotation overall is a big enough threat to go deep into October, let alone win the Fall Classic. Manaea has a 15.26 ERA in three career playoff outings (two starts). Severino has historically struggled to step up in big games, giving up 25 earned runs in 43.2 playoff innings with the Yankees. Behind those two arms, the durability of Jose Quintana, who pitches better with longer rest periods, is something of an unknown. And southpaw David Peterson is coming off an up-and-down September and lacks playoff experience. — Deesha Thosar
Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: The D-backs have committed the fewest errors in the sport again, but if last year’s NL champs are going to finish the job in 2024, it’s an offense that ranks in the top two in every slash line category that will be leading the way. All-Star starter Ketel Marte has the third-highest OPS among qualified NL players, Christian Walker should have been an All-Star, Joc Pederson has an OPS over .900, Eugenio Suarez has 29 homers in a bounce-back year, Randal Grichuk is hitting over .400 this month and Corbin Carroll is finding his form. It’s not a fluke that the Snakes have MLB’s top offense since the break.
Why they won’t: As the offense is thriving, the pitching staff is floundering. D-backs pitchers have the highest ERA in MLB this month. The issues are widespread. The bullpen has an ERA over 6.00 and the rotation has an ERA over 5.00 in September — a surprise considering the pieces Arizona added to try to remedy both issues. Newcomers Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez have been replacement level players this season, each with an ERA over 5.00. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly demonstrated last year they don’t need much help to carry the squad’s rotation, but the bullpen just doesn’t look capable right now of providing much support. — Rowan Kavner
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
