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PHOENIX — Torey Lovullo was on a flight back from New York to Arizona over the holidays when the Diamondbacks manager received an unexpected text.
“The owner’s asking, ‘Where are you, can you call me wherever you are?'” Lovullo recalled. “I’m like, ‘Oh my God.'”
Lovullo talks to managing general partner Ken Kendrick around seven to 10 times a year, including a couple of times via text, but never in late December.
Upon landing and getting in touch with Kendrick, any fear or panic Lovullo experienced shifted to elation and exhilaration.
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“We’re going to engage Corbin Burnes,” Kendrick told Lovullo. “We’re going to see where this takes us.”
Adding the top starting pitcher on the market wasn’t part of Arizona’s business model when the offseason began, Kendrick admitted. There appeared to be more glaring needs on the D-backs’ roster, and the team usually operates with a payroll that ranks in the bottom half of the sport.
But when Burnes expressed his desire to stay close to home and his three young children — his twin daughters, Harper and Charlotte, were born last June — the model changed. Kendrick felt inspired. An opportunity had fallen in the D-backs’ lap, and they were ready to pounce.
“Once Ken got engaged, when he makes a commitment like that, he gets super aggressive,” Lovullo said. “I knew that there was a really good chance.”
What Lovullo wasn’t sure about, at least at the time, was Burnes’ perspective.
By late December, Blake Snell and Max Fried had already found new homes with the Dodgers and Yankees, respectively. That left Burnes as the lone nine-figure pitcher still looming on the market. A former Cy Young Award winner and an All-Star each of the past four seasons, it should come as little surprise that he was drawing significant interest.
While he has seen his strikeout rate steadily decline since his 2021 Cy Young season, Burnes has still been one of the most productive pitchers in baseball in that time. Among pitchers who’ve thrown at least 500 innings over the last three years, he ranks third in ERA, strikeouts and innings pitched. He has also finished in the top eight in Cy Young voting in each of the past five seasons.
He was a workhorse unlike any other pitcher on the market.
“We had heard from four or five other teams before we heard from [the D-backs], before we kind of got in contact with them,” Burnes told FOX Sports. “We had a couple offers on the table already. One was in writing, a couple verbal, nothing that was really serious yet, just to get the door open and start negotiations. But we never really pursued it hard because we were waiting to see if these guys and more teams were going to jump in.”
The more teams that were interested, Burnes figured, the more leverage there would be in negotiations. He described his first experience of free agency as “pretty stressful,” but he also told his agent, Scott Boras, that he had no problem being patient.
While other teams had deeper pockets, none could offer Arizona’s proximity. And though the D-backs aren’t to be confused with MLB’s luxury-tax offenders, and are still operating with a payroll nearly $200 million less than that of the rival Dodgers, they will splurge occasionally and selectively.
Much like they did nine years ago, when they surprised the baseball world by signing Zack Greinke, they operated in relative stealth as they lured in the pitching prize of the offseason.
The free-agency process went longer into the offseason than Burnes would’ve liked, but he eventually landed where he wanted.
“Just when we started to look at everything, this was the ideal spot,” Burnes said.
Once negotiations began, both sides moved expeditiously. Two days after his chat with Kendrick, Lovullo, a Southern California native who has family ties in Western New York, was visiting his mother on the West Coast when he said he received “a wall of text messages.” One came from Buffalo Bills’ long snapper Reid Ferguson.
“Corbin Burnes??” the text read. Then came another: “That’s an unbelievable addition.”
‘What!?” Lovullo responded before going straight to Google to see the news.
Initial phone calls between Burnes’ representation and the Diamondbacks went directly between owner and agent. Boras tried to sell Kendrick on the value of having “two true No. 1 starters” in Burnes and Zac Gallen, much the same way the 2001 champion Diamondbacks won with Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling.
“We began to talk and realized there was probably a model we could make work,” Kendrick said at Burnes’ introductory press conference.
The D-backs would typically loop Lovullo in before a deal of that magnitude was finalized, but the operation in the days leading up to Burnes’ signing shortly after Christmas was unusual. General manager Mike Hazen was with his kids in New Zealand. Assistant general manager Amiel Sawdaye was in Paris with family. It wasn’t until well after 10 p.m. PT on the night of Dec. 27 when reports first emerged about Burnes’ decision.
Over the course of a few days, Burnes and the Diamondbacks had hammered out the terms on the richest contract in franchise history, a six-year, $210-million pact that surpassed Greinke’s eerily similar six-year, $206.5 million deal. Burnes will have the ability to opt out after the 2026 season.
“I hope it sends the message that we’re in it to win it,” Kendrick said.
Burnes had spent six springs close to home in Phoenix, where he and his family had moved in 2018, while playing for the Brewers. Last year, after getting traded to Baltimore, he experienced spring training in Florida for the first time. Another first was fast approaching.
For years, he and his wife had discussed what free agency might look like and where they might like to go. They hoped their family could be together as much as possible. “There’s really only one spot you can do that,” Burnes said.
But staying close to his home in Scottsdale was not the sole reason for his decision. Burnes wasn’t going to tie himself long-term to a losing effort. The Diamondbacks had left an imprint on him during their surprising march to the World Series in 2023. On April 11 of that season, Burnes shut the D-backs out over eight innings. The next time he faced them in June, they looked like a different group. He surrendered a season-high seven runs over five innings.
Milwaukee and Arizona would meet again with much higher stakes in the wild-card round. In Game 1, the Brewers spotted Burnes an early 3-0 lead when the D-backs stormed back, tagging him for four runs over four innings. Burnes saw a young group he thought would be competitive for a long time.
“Obviously when you’re going to sign a long-term deal, you want to be able to win every year you’re there,” Burnes said. “First, you’ve got to look at teams that are contacting you that are going to be consistent winners over the course of that deal. You have that and obviously the family aspect of it, and the stage of life me and my wife are in right now, as easy as it can be on the family as possible, the better.”
The signing was a stunner not only because the Diamondbacks outlasted the league’s biggest spenders but also because they already had a full and formidable rotation without Burnes. Still, the group was coming off a year marred by injury and underperformance.
Their starters had a 4.79 ERA last season, fourth-worst in the majors. A hamstring injury cost Gallen a month. A shoulder injury limited Merrill Kelly to 13 starts. Their major offseason signings of Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery did not yield production. Rodriguez finished with a 5.04 ERA in 10 starts after dealing with a lat strain. More troublingly, Montgomery, a year after helping lift the Texas Rangers past the Diamondbacks in the World Series, had a 6.23 ERA in 25 appearances and spent the end of the year bouncing between the rotation and bullpen.
Arizona’s struggles on the mound, both starting and in relief, helped explain how a Diamondbacks group that scored more runs than any team in baseball last year still missed the postseason. The D-backs could have simply hoped for better health and production in 2025.
Instead, at a time when the Dodgers had already flexed their financial might, throwing tax payments to the wind as they continued to add a staggering amount of talent in their quest to repeat as champions, Arizona still tried to compete in a way many teams did not this winter. Even with Madison Bumgarner’s $85 million contract coming off the books and Christian Walker and Paul Sewald signing elsewhere, the addition of Burnes represented a significant financial commitment for an Arizona team that is currently slated to operate its highest-ever Opening Day payroll, a figure roughly $20 million more than the one they sported a season ago.
Shortly after the D-backs signed their new ace, Lovullo gave Burnes a call. In their first conversation, Lovullo wanted to reiterate the amount of work still ahead for a D-backs group looking to rebound. He enjoyed Burnes’ response.
“Let’s go, are you ready to win a s*** ton of games?” Lovullo recalled Burnes saying on The Jim Rome Show.
That, Burnes said when asked about the conversation, was probably an accurate recollection.
With the Dodgers dominating the NL West, the Diamondbacks have made the postseason just twice in the last 13 years. In 2017, they were swept by the Dodgers in the National League Division Series. Six years later, they answered back, sweeping the Dodgers in the NLDS during their unexpected 2023 run.
Perhaps, by adding a star of Burnes’ caliber, another surprise awaits.
“Obviously, the market these guys are in, they don’t get to do that very often,” Burnes said. “It’s kind of your window to go after it and get it. The fact that ownership recognized that and went out and got me and made the trade for [Josh] Naylor and made some other good moves shows they’re ready to go, ready to compete. I think Torey was fired up about it, so when he called me, I kind of echoed that. I’m excited.”
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Corbin Burnes
Arizona Diamondbacks
Major League Baseball
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What is ABS? MLB begins spring training test of automated ball-strike challenge system
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At Yankees camp on Wednesday, Luis Gil threw a pitch to Aaron Judge that tailed just below the zone. Gil disagreed. Believing it caught the bottom of the plate, he put his hand to his cap. The players gazed up toward the video board, which revealed that the pitch did indeed miss by 1.8 inches. Less than 30 seconds later, the at-bat continued.
This was the automated ball-strike challenge system at play.
While NFL fans dream of the day an electronic system that can more accurately determine first downs, MLB is in the process of figuring out its own way to attempt to remove human error on balls and strikes. Robot umpires haven’t arrived at Major League Baseball yet, but a version of an automated strike zone will be tested this spring.
Starting Thursday at Camelback Ranch, where the Dodgers and Cubs will open Cactus League play, the ABS challenge system will begin being implemented. The system will be in place at 13 stadiums and in more than 60% of spring training games across Arizona and Florida. The setup represents a compromise between humans and full ABS, allowing umpires to decide the majority of balls and strikes while affording players the ability to fix the more egregious calls.
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“We’ve heard good things about it, heard bad things about it,” Diamondbacks ace Corbin Burnes said Thursday. “At the big-league level, we want to see how things work and get a good few weeks in to see if it’s something that will be feasible in the future, but we’ll see how it goes. It’s still technology, so it’s still going to have its bugs that they’re going to have to figure out.”
This spring, teams will get two challenges per game and will only lose a challenge if it is unsuccessful. Only a batter, pitcher or catcher can challenge a call, which they will indicate by tapping their head. They have to do so immediately after the pitch without assistance from the manager or players in the dugout. The Hawk-Eye tracking technology will then be displayed on the videoboard, showing whether the pitch was a strike or not. On average, challenges at the Triple-A level have taken 17 seconds to complete.
The dimensions of the strike zone will be determined by the batter’s height — the top of the zone is 53.5% of the player’s height, while the bottom of the zone is at 27%. The heights of all position players in camp have been measured this spring.
The reason it’s not at every spring stadium is because they’re not all equipped for the technology. In the Cactus League, the ABS challenge system will be utilized at the five dual-team stadiums — Camelback Ranch (Dodgers/White Sox), Surprise Stadium (Rangers/Royals), Peoria Sports Complex (Mariners/Padres), Goodyear Ballpark (Reds/Guardians) and Salt River Fields (Diamondbacks/Rockies). In the Grapefruit League, it will be at George M. Steinbrenner Field (Yankees), Clover Park (Mets), BayCare Ballpark (Phillies), TD Ballpark (Blue Jays), LECOM Park (Pirates), Publix Field (Tigers), Hammond Stadium (Twins) and Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium (Marlins/Cardinals).
The system won’t go into effect during the 2025 MLB season, but if deemed successful during Cactus and Grapefruit League play could be implemented as soon as 2026. The challenge system will occur at the Triple-A level this year.
MLB has already experimented with different versions of ABS in the minor leagues, but this spring is the first time it will be tested at the big-league level. Big-leaguers on rehab assignments, however, have already gotten a taste of a version of ABS. The Guardians’ Steven Kwan, who made a rehab start and experienced full ABS, is among them.
At the All-Star Game last year, Kwan said he thought the concept was a good idea but wondered about the psychology of a player’s willingness to burn a challenge on a close call.
“I’m not sure how I’m going to adapt to that part,” Kwan said. “In a vacuum, it sounds like it’s going to be effective, but we’ll see.”
Dave Roberts, who will be managing the first spring game with ABS technology, has not yet decided if he’s a fan. He told his hitters to be careful of challenging breaking balls low in the zone, believing those are often strikes when hitters believe otherwise. He also smiled, relaying what he told one of his hitters in particular before Thursday’s Cactus League opener.
“I told [Max] Muncy not to challenge,” Roberts said. “He’s our biggest culprit of not agreeing with the strike zone, so I said save your challenges.”
Pitchers, often, are the most skeptical about the technology, which has been tested at Triple-A the last two years. That includes Burnes, who is accustomed to studying the historical strike zone of the umpire behind the plate before each start.
“They’re pretty good about sticking to their zones historically,” Burnes said. “They make mistakes at home plate, but if you look at kind of the general strike zone of an umpire over the course of a 10-year career in the big leagues, those guys are pretty good.”
For Triple-A players who were exposed to both full ABS and the challenge system, the latter seems to be the prevailing preference.
“It’s currently a little inconsistent,” Dodgers pitcher Landon Knack said. “Ballpark to ballpark, it would not be calibrated the same. So, you’d go some places and it’d be higher or lower. You go to some places, and it’s actually moved over an inch or two.”
Knack also said in his experience, the zone tended to be smaller than the one he’s been accustomed to growing up, often taking away calls he’d normally get at the top of the zone. As a pitcher whose fastball lives in the mid-to-low 90s, command and precision are especially vital. A couple calls that go against him on the edges can make or break a start.
He referenced his walk rate at Triple-A since the system began being utilized. In 2023, Knack walked twice as many batters per nine innings than he did in Double-A that same season. Last year, he walked a career-high 4.1 batters per nine innings in Triple-A but only 2.3 in 15 big-league games.
Knack, however, understands the interest in the technology and the desire to get as many calls correct as possible. He believes it’s engaging for fans and could eventually be a positive for the game once the kinks are worked out, even if it’s not quite there yet.
“It’s close,” Knack said. “It’s not like it’s super far off where it needs to be, but it’s still a little bit away.”
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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‘I know what I’m capable of:’ Mike Trout’s position has changed, but his expectations haven’t
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TEMPE, Ariz. — Mike Trout tries to stay off social media, but the ranking nonetheless found its way into his orbit.
Last week, MLB Network compiled a list of baseball’s top 100 players. Trout, a three-time MVP, 11-time All-Star and nine-time Silver Slugger, came in at No. 39, one spot behind 31-year-old Matt Chapman and one ahead of 20-year-old Jackson Chourio.
Trout, who played in just 29 games last year and 82 the season before, understood the reasoning.
“Hey, they’re going off the last couple years, and I haven’t been out there,” Trout said Monday afternoon before the Angels‘ first full-squad workout of the spring.
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It did not mean he agreed with it.
“I know where I stand,” he continued.
Trout has played in just 266 of a possible 648 games over the last four injury-riddled seasons. During that time, though, he ranks fourth in OPS among players with at least 1,000 plate appearances. He is also the only player worth at least 12 WAR in fewer than 300 games played over that stretch.
When Trout’s on the field, the 33-year-old remains one of baseball’s star talents, even if he’s not the perennial MVP candidate he was throughout the 2010s.
“When he plays, we’re different,” general manager Perry Minasian said. “When his name’s in the lineup, and you walk to the park and you look at the lineup, it just feels different.”
Though the last couple of years have represented a decline from his peak form, Trout still hit 32% better than the league average in 2023 and 40% better in his brief showing last season before he tore the meniscus in his left knee twice, requiring two separate surgeries.
So, while he understands why some might look at his absences and think there are 38 players better than him right now, the injuries haven’t diminished his self-belief or lessened his confidence in what he can accomplish. MLB’s ranking, Trout said, is just another source of motivation.
“I know what I’m capable of,” Trout said. “Last couple years have been tough, some fluke things. I’m trying to put myself in the best position to be out there for the whole season, and there’s obviously things I can improve on, and we’re working on that.”
The Angels are working on it, too.
It has been more than 10 years — 4,186 days, to be exact — since the last time Trout played a position other than center field. Trout was 22 years old on Sept. 2, 2013, when he saw action in left field. It was even longer, back when Trout was 20 years old during the 2012 season, the last time he logged an inning in right field.
Now, that latter spot will be his home for the foreseeable future.
In an effort to preserve Trout’s health and keep Taylor Ward in left field, Minasian and manager Ron Washington told Trout on Sunday that he’ll be bumping over to right. Trout will also mix in some days at designated hitter — perhaps once a week, Washington confirmed — but his time as the club’s full-time center fielder is over.
“I knew it was coming,” Trout said, “just got to get used to it. I just want to be on the field.”
Jo Adell and Mickey Moniak will get most of the reps in center. Adell was a Gold Glove finalist in right field last season, while Moniak played 98 games in center after Trout’s injury. The biggest adjustment for any player moving from center to right, Moniak said, is the angles.
“Center field, you’re kind of straight on, squared up to the hitter and pitcher,” Moniak explained. “Balls coming off the bat, they tend to stay pretty true. When you’re playing right field, everything seems to be running away from you.”
Washington is not concerned about Trout’s ability to recalibrate.
“Mike is an athlete,” Washington said. “He’ll figure it out. The only thing that I think we’re concerned about, and we got with everyone, is the communication. We don’t need nobody running into Mike Trout.”
Trout appears amenable to the switch, much more so than he was three years ago. Before the 2022 season, Joe Maddon broached the idea of Trout potentially moving off of center. Twenty-four hours later, Maddon and the Angels backtracked. The concept was immediately shut down by Trout, who voiced his desire to remain in center while acknowledging that he might be open to moving to a corner spot “down the road.”
That road, after a litany of injuries the last few years, is now here.
“It’s just keeping him on the field,” Minasian said. “There’s no secret. He’s dying to play.”
Trout played in 53 games during the shortened 60-game season in 2020 and in more than 130 games each of the two years prior to that. He has not reached that 130-game mark in a season since.
In 2021, he suffered a season-ending calf strain while running the bases. In 2022, he dealt with a back injury that some briefly worried might be career-altering. In 2023, he suffered a hamate fracture in his wrist on a swing. Last year, he tore his meniscus in April and underwent surgery in May. He returned for a rehab game in July only to learn that he had suffered another tear just above the last one, requiring season-ending surgery. Over the last four years, he has made just 41 starts after the All-Star break.
While none of the injuries he sustained were a direct result of a play in center field, the Angels hope the move will remove some responsibility from his plate, give him a better chance to play a full season and create some memorable moments at a ballpark with a home-run boundary only 8-feet high at the right-field wall.
“I think Mike’s going to be one of the best right fielders in the game,” Washington said.
Trout said he didn’t do anything differently to prepare for the switch this offseason, but he plans on seeking out Torii Hunter, who joined the Angels’ staff as a special assistant last season, at some point this spring for advice. Hunter won nine Gold Gloves as a center fielder before making a similar transition to right at 34.
Trout also reported to camp a bit lighter than he had in recent years.
“I think that was one of my goals coming into spring,” Trout explained, “just feeling more like myself, a little faster.”
That goal falls in line with the one he had before last season, when he set out to steal more bases. He had as many in 29 games last year (six) as he had in his previous four seasons combined and was on pace for his first 30-steal season since 2016 before the injury. Despite the efforts being taken to reduce the wear and tear on his body going forward, Trout doesn’t plan on altering or limiting his aggressiveness.
He still believes he’s the best player on the field, even if his placement on the top-100 list suggests others are questioning it.
“Yeah,” he said, “stuff like that I think fires you up a little bit.”
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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FOX/FS1 set to broadcast MLB’s season-opening Tokyo Series between Dodgers, Cubs
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Major League Baseball’s season-opening Tokyo Series between the Dodgers and Cubs on March 18-19, which is likely to feature two Japanese-born pitchers facing off in their home country for the first time in a big-league game, will be broadcast on FOX/FS1.
Start times for both games are at 6 a.m. ET, with the March 18 game on FOX/FOX Deportes followed by the March 19 matchup on FS1/FOX Deportes (with both games streaming on the FOX Sports app). The contests will include some of Japan’s greatest MLB talents, from Shohei Ohtani and Seiya Suzuki to a number of pitching standouts.
While starting matchups are still being finalized, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shōta Imanaga and Rōki Sasaki could become the fourth, fifth and sixth Japanese players to pitch at the Tokyo Dome with their big-league clubs, joining Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima and Yusei Kikuchi, who started Ichiro Suzuki’s final big-league game at the venue in 2019. That was the last time MLB games were played at the Tokyo Dome.
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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has already said he expects Yamamoto to start the opener, with Sasaki a possibility for Game 2 if he is ready in his build-up to big-league action. If Sasaki makes that start, it will represent the top international free agent’s highly-anticipated MLB debut after signing with the Dodgers in January. Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Imanaga will pitch in Japan, though he has yet to reveal if it will be the Opening Day contest.
Ohtani is expected to be ready to hit but not pitch in time for the series opener following offseason shoulder surgery and a 2023 UCL repair. Ohtani, despite not pitching last season, still won his third MVP award in his first year with the Dodgers in a historic 50/50 season.
Imanaga and Yamamoto are both entering their second big-league seasons and coming off exceptional rookie campaigns. Imanaga went 15-3 with a 2.91 ERA in an All-Star season that saw him finish fourth in Rookie of the Year voting and fifth in Cy Young voting. Yamamoto, who became the highest-paid pitcher ever when he signed a 12-year, $325-million contract with the Dodgers before last season, was 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA during the regular season and allowed one run in 6.1 innings in Game 2 of the World Series.
RELATED: ‘We were there when no one was’: The inside story on the Dodgers landing Rōki Sasaki
The 2025 Tokyo Series will mark the sixth time that MLB begins its regular season in Japan’s capital and the 25th anniversary of the first regular-season games in the country, which took place in 2000 between the Cubs and Mets.
It is also the second straight year that the Dodgers will begin their season in Asia, following last year’s Seoul Series in Korea against the Padres.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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In massive short-term commitment to Alex Bregman, Red Sox show they’re serious again
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If Wednesday night signaled the twilight of one American League juggernaut’s run, the Red Sox are hoping it also marked the resurgence of another.
Boston, having missed out on the playoffs each of the past three years and five of the past six seasons, landed a player who has known nothing but winning throughout that time. Alex Bregman, a symbol of both Houston’s hegemony and ignominy over the past nine years, will be wearing a different big-league uniform for the first time in 2025.
Bregman and the Red Sox reportedly agreed to a three-year deal worth $120 million which includes deferrals, an important note considering the otherwise massive short-term commitment from a longtime powerhouse franchise that had failed to act as one in recent years. The move, expensive as it might be over the next few years, is the act of a Boston team doing what’s necessary to be taken seriously again and put itself in a position to return to prominence in one of the most perilous divisions in the sport after finishing in last place in the AL East three times in the past five years.
For all that Bregman provides with his bat and his glove, his leadership and magnetism in a clubhouse should also be a boon for a youthful club that needed both star power and direction as a host of top prospects in Boston begin to embark on their MLB careers.
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Over the past seven years, Bregman has been worth the second-most wins above replacement among all MLB third basemen, behind only José Ramírez. He’s no longer producing the offensive numbers that made him a two-time All-Star, 7-9 WAR player and top-five MVP finisher in 2019 and 2020, but he remains one of the best players at his position. Bregman’s expert plate discipline and stout defense at the hot corner have helped him consistently remain a well above league-average hitter with 20-plus-homer pop and one of the better defensive third basemen in the sport, even at 30. Last year, he weathered a slow start at the plate to produce his third straight season with at least 4 WAR. His .768 OPS was the lowest mark of his career, and it was still 18% better than league average.
It’s no surprise why he desired a contract north of $200 million this offseason. When that offer never came, he found a variety of other options at his table. He could have returned to Houston for six years and $156 million. He could have gone to Detroit, which reportedly offered the same number of years and $171 million.
Or he could take the deal he got: a whopping $40 million per season with the ability to cash in again for more long-term stability at any point in the next three years, depending how his tenure in Boston goes. (The Cubs also reportedly offered $120 million but for four years, which Boston’s offer far surpassed.)
Related: MLB’s 6 riskiest contracts of the 2025 offseason
Had deferrals not been included, a $40 million average annual value would have matched that of two-time MVP Aaron Judge for the sixth-highest AAV in baseball history, and trailing only Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani and Zack Wheeler among active players. (Ohtani’s heavily-deferred $70 million annual salary has a $46 million AAV for luxury-tax purposes). Even with the deferrals, it’s a lot of money for a 31-year-old infielder with moderate power whose chase rate increased and walk rate plummeted last season, lowering his on-base percentage to its lowest mark since his abbreviated debut season.
There have been comparisons made between Bregman and Matt Chapman, another slick-fielding third baseman and Scott Boras client who was also entering his age-31 season when he signed a similarly structured, opt-out-laden deal with the Giants before the 2024 campaign. The big difference? Chapman cost just $54 million, more than half of what Bregman went for, before parlaying his success into the longer-term pact he initially sought.
Perhaps a similar situation unfolds for Bregman. Regardless, it was well past time for the Red Sox to make this kind of bet. For the first time in years, Boston finally offered a bid enticing enough to attract a premier talent. And on a short-term deal, Bregman’s pull-side power and production should continue to play well with the Green Monster at Fenway Park, as it did with the Crawford Boxes at Daikin Park (formerly Minute Maid).
It’s worth noting, too, that Bregman’s success in Houston was not just a result of home cooking. He has been just as good on the road throughout his career, and that’s especially true in Boston. In 21 games at Fenway Park, Bregman has a 1.240 OPS with seven home runs.
What it means for the Red Sox
There they are.
You know, the Red Sox? That team that won four World Series in a 15-year span? That group that carried a top-five payroll every year throughout that stretch? Well, all right, they’re still not quite there, yet, but this is a lot closer to the “full-throttle” approach than Red Sox chairman Tom Werner had pledged the previous winter, when Boston’s biggest free-agent expenditure was two years and $38.2 million to Lucas Giolito. This is the start of a promise finally starting to be fulfilled.
Since winning the World Series in 2018, the Red Sox have largely been irrelevant. Over the past six years, they’ve made the playoffs once. In that same stretch, Bregman has been the lifeblood of an Astros team that has gone to half of the past six Fall Classics.
It’s possible Bregman is only in town for a year. If he pops off in Boston, he can opt out and test the market again. But the heft of his yearly salary could convince him to let the deal play out, especially if the Red Sox rebirth begins and spawns a longer-term offer. They had already made some intriguing moves this winter, adding Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, Aroldis Chapman and Patrick Sandoval to a pitching staff that needed a boost. But Crochet, who’s still in arbitration, was acquired via trade and will make less than $4 million this year. Buehler signed a one-year pillow deal for the equivalent of the qualifying offer, attempting to reestablish his value after a down year that ended on another masterfully high note in a prosperous postseason. Chapman is 37 and Sandoval underwent Tommy John surgery last season.
None of that was enough to really contend, not against the Yankees and Orioles, even as a plethora of highly regarded prospects are soon to debut.
For the past two years, the Red Sox have started the season with a payroll outside the top 10 in baseball, a confounding reality for a frustrated fanbase that watched their team trade away Mookie Betts, unwilling to pay him what he was worth, only to then see him lead the Dodgers to two World Series championships over the past five years. They didn’t pay up to keep Xander Bogaerts, either, a decision that appears more prudent than the Betts one. Extending Rafael Devers before the 2023 season was a necessity to keep any semblance of star power in uniform long term.
Perhaps they got spooked after giving out extensions of $215 million to David Price — the Dodgers’ willingness to take on his contract and get the Red Sox under the luxury-tax threshold was part of the Betts deal — in 2015 and $145 million to Chris Sale in 2019, then committing $140 million to Trevor Story before the 2022 season and $90 million to Masataka Yoshida after that year. They hadn’t doled out a nine-figure free-agent deal since. To make matters worse last year, they traded away the National League Cy Young Award winner (Sale) in return for a below replacement-level 23-year-old infielder (Vaughn Grissom). Even after their early work this winter, another jolt seemed necessary for a Boston team that had surpassed the luxury-tax threshold just once in the past five years.
More specifically, the Red Sox needed a right-handed bat to balance out a lineup that featured the lefty bats of Devers, Jarren Duran, Triston Casas, Wilyer Abreu and Yoshida. It would help if that player could also man the middle infield. Prospects Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer aren’t far from making an impact, but the Red Sox ranked 23rd and 27th in wRC+ at shortstop and second base, respectively, last season. They needed some reliability and stability.
Whether he ends up taking reps from Devers at third base or manning second base, Bregman provides more of a sure thing for the Boston infield both in the lineup and on the field, where it committed the second-most errors in baseball last season. The draft hit that the Red Sox absorbed by signing Bregman was mitigated when the Padres signed departing free-agent Nick Pivetta. Both players declined the qualifying offer from their previous clubs.
The Red Sox could still use more relief help, but this is now a club that looks ready to contend again.
What it means for the Astros
A precarious, uncharted road ahead.
Red Sox manager Alex Cora wasn’t the only person singing Bregman’s praises and touting his ability to impact an organization in multiple facets. A leader known for galvanizing his clubhouse throughout the Astros’ dynastic run, Bregman had such an influence in Houston that José Altuve made a public plea to the Astros’ ownership group to keep him, with the nine-time All-Star and former MVP even offering to switch positions to make it happen.
Ultimately, it didn’t matter. The writing was on the wall in the middle of December, when the Astros traded 28-year-old three-time All-Star Kyle Tucker. The move not only demonstrated their unwillingness to pay what it would cost to keep one vital member of their championship core, but it also seemed to signal the end of the road with another.
In came Isaac Paredes, the likely new third baseman, and new Astros top prospect Cam Smith, the potential third baseman of the future. They still entertained the idea of keeping Bregman and moving pieces around, but it never came to fruition.
Now, the path forward in Houston looks as treacherous as it has at any point in the past decade. A team that includes Altuve, Yordan Álvarez and Christian Walker atop the lineup, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown in the rotation and Hader and Bryan Abreu in the bullpen should still contend for a division title, but this is not the same group that has made it to the ALCS seven of the past eight years.
They weathered the loss of George Springer in 2021. They survived the departure of Carlos Correa in 2022, storming to a World Series championship. Without Tucker and Bregman, though, and with a farm system offering little to rely on coming up the ranks, how much longer can the most decorated chapter of Astros history continue?
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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MLB’s 5 best under-the-radar pickups from the 2025 offseason
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This offseason will be remembered as the winter of Juan Soto, when the Mets emerged victorious over the Yankees for the most expensive player in the sport’s history on one side of the country while the Dodgers (supposedly) broke the game with their spending on the other. Top free-agent pitchers Blake Snell, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried all found new teams, the Astros traded away Kyle Tucker and another pitching sensation out of Japan landed in Los Angeles.
But for all the major moves that have defined Major League Baseball’s hot stove over the past few months, there were also a handful of under-the-radar signings and trades that could move the needle, even if they didn’t capture the biggest headlines at the time.
Since “under-the-radar” is a subjective phrase, we’ll include a few ground rules for this piece: The list below only includes players making less than the qualifying offer this year (which knocks out Walker Buehler, who received exactly that — one year, $21.05 million — from the Red Sox and could be primed to cash in next winter if he can build off another spectacular October). In addition, the 25 players who signed for the most total guaranteed money this winter are not included (which eliminates Nick Pivetta and Ha-Seong Kim, who could be a bargain for the Rays at two years and $29 million or for whichever team ends up getting him after he’s inevitably traded for prospects), nor are players who were worth at least 3.0 bWAR last season (which eliminates some of the top trade acquisitions, including Tucker and Garrett Crochet). Lastly, because anyone the Dodgers, Mets or Yankees acquired this offseason tended to garner attention, this list instead focuses on MLB’s 27 other teams.
With that, here are five moves to watch.
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Let me start by stating the obvious: The Astros are not a better team now than they were last year with Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. But there are reasons to believe Paredes can thrive in Houston, where it won’t take much for him to find the seats with his pull-side power. All 72 home runs of Paredes’ five-year career have gone to left or left-center, which made his stroke an odd and unproductive fit in his second half last year at Wrigley Field, which is 355 feet out to left. Houston’s more friendly confines for a right-handed hitter — it’s only 315 feet out to the Crawford Boxes in left field — are much more closely aligned with the dimensions that helped Paredes thrive in Tampa Bay.
Over the past three years, no qualified right-handed hitter has pulled the ball more often than Paredes. Over the past two years, the only MLB player to pull more fly balls than Paredes is Marcus Semien. Paredes is not known for his hard contact — he has ranked in the bottom 6% in MLB in hard-hit rate each of the past two years — but Daikin (formerly Minute Maid) Park surrenders more home runs on poorly-hit balls than any venue in the majors. After launching 31 home runs for the Rays in 2023, Paredes hit just 19 last season in a year split between Tampa Bay and Chicago. Had he played all of his home games in Houston, however, he would have hit 26. Paredes’ terrific plate discipline combined with the right venue to take advantage of his high launch angle could lead to a productive 2025.
4. OF/DH Randal Grichuk: re-signed with Diamondbacks for one year, $5 million (plus 2026 mutual option)
Once Jurickson Profar went off the board, it was pretty much down to platoon options for outfield-needy teams still looking for help on the market in February. That the Diamondbacks managed to get Grichuk for $5 million guaranteed — he’ll technically make $2 million next season with a $5 million mutual option for 2026 that includes a $3 million buyout and can earn another $500,000 in incentives — at a time when other contenders like the Royals could have really used the outfield pop is another boon for an Arizona team that shocked the league earlier this winter by winning the Burnes sweepstakes.
Grichuk thrived in a part-time role last season in Arizona after returning from right ankle surgery, playing both corner outfield spots and partnering with Joc Pederson as the right-handed hitting platoon in the D-backs’ designated hitter spot. Seeing most of his time against left-handed pitching, Grichuk posted the highest wRC+ and the lowest strikeout rate of his career, hitting 39% better than league average. He also recorded the highest hard-hit percentage of his career while finishing the 2024 season with an .875 OPS in 279 plate appearances. By bWAR, it was the 32-year-old’s best season (by bWAR) since 2018 in Toronto.
Grichuk might not provide the same overall value as the top outfield options on the board, but for a team that lost both Christian Walker and Pederson from the highest-scoring offense in baseball, Grichuk’s addition is the latest example of the D-backs nonetheless finding ways to position themselves well for a return trip to the postseason after missing out on the dance in 2024 with 89 wins. Grichuk should help them in a similar role this year, balancing out their outfield and possibly platooning at DH again with the left-handed-hitting Pavin Smith.
Maybe it’s because the Phillies’ rotation was already stacked, or maybe it’s because this deal came a day after Josh Naylor was traded to the Diamondbacks and Paul Goldschmidt signed with the Yankees, and a day before Walker Buehler signed with the Red Sox, but it feels like Luzardo going to the Phillies for two lower-level prospects hasn’t received the attention it deserves. Luzardo, who started Game 1 of a wild-card series in 2023, won’t be a free agent until 2027 and is set to make just a tick over $6 million in 2025. When you consider the price for elite arms this winter — the AAV for Fried, Burnes and Snell ranged between $27-33 million — this looks like a well-calculated, economical bet to add a potential impact arm.
Like others on this list, injuries certainly played a role in stifling his value. But this is also a 27-year-old who ranked 12th in strikeout rate among all starters who threw at least 200 innings between the 2022-23 seasons. For now, all indications are that Luzardo is over the stress reaction in his back that ended his 2024 season early. If he can find his 2023 form, before back and elbow issues limited him to a 5.00 ERA over 12 starts last season, this could be a huge get and looks worth the risk for a Phillies team with depth around him (and more coming with top pitching prospect Andrew Painter on the way). On paper, it’ll be tough for any team’s rotation to compete with the arms in Los Angeles. But with a healthy Luzardo in the fold, the Phillies could make an argument.
2. 2B Gleyber Torres: signed with Tigers for one year, $15 million
This offseason, one year and $15 million could get you a starting pitcher over the age of 36 or a 28-year-old two-time All-Star who was just the leadoff hitter for the AL champs. I like the odds of the latter making a bigger impact. Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton and Alex Cobb all signed for the same price as Torres, which goes to show just how much Torres’ stock had fallen after a disappointing contract year in the Bronx that saw him hit around league average with a medley of baserunning gaffes and defensive lapses, one of which set up Freddie Freeman’s iconic walk-off in Game 1 of the World Series. But it also represents the kind of bargain that could be on the Tigers’ hands if Torres can build on his strong second half and play to his capabilities on a pillow contract before he tests the market again.
After a dreadful start to the 2024 season, Torres took off after the break. With the Yankees looking for an offensive spark, Torres was thrust into the leadoff spot in late August and began to look a lot more like the 3-4 WAR player he was in his previous two years in New York. While he might not ever fulfill the lofty expectations set upon him after launching 62 home runs his first two seasons in the league as a two-time All-Star by the age of 22, he can still be a highly productive offensive piece. He should immediately help a Detroit team that desperately needed another right-handed bat to balance out its young, lefty-heavy lineup. Even if Torres doesn’t mash 25 home runs, his plate discipline will benefit a Tigers group that had a bottom-10 offense last year. The lower-stress environment could bring the best out of a motivated Torres as he seeks to use this year in Detroit as a launching pad.
1. SP Shane Bieber: re-signed with Guardians for two years, $26 million (with opt-out)
When Bieber came out of the gates firing in 2024 with 20 strikeouts in 12 scoreless innings over his first two starts, two things seemed clear: This was not the same version of the pitcher whose strikeout rate had taken a continual nosedive in the years following his 2020 Cy Young season, and the Guardians ought to enjoy the little time they had left with him atop their rotation. It seemed certain that the 2024 season would be Bieber’s last in Cleveland, given the ownership group’s unwillingness to up the payroll. But against all odds, Bieber will be donning a Cleveland jersey again, at least for the 2025 season. Those couple of imposing outings to begin the year were the only ones Bieber made before he needed Tommy John surgery in April. The recovery will likely last into the middle of this upcoming season.
It was brutal timing for Bieber as the two-time All-Star readied for free agency, but it presented an opportunity for the Guardians, who are paying him just $10 million for whatever he can provide in 2025. If his recovery lasts longer than anticipated, or he’s not able to bounce back to form, Bieber has a $16 million player option for 2026 that includes a $4 million buyout. So, this deal will amount to either $14 million for one season or $26 million for two. Either way, it’s a significant win for a Cleveland rotation that needs the help after amassing a 4.40 ERA as a group last season. Bieber doesn’t turn 30 until May, and the $26 million the Guardians guaranteed him over two seasons is about the same amount that Nathan Eovaldi (entering his age-35 season) and Sean Manaea (entering his age-33 season) will be getting every year for the next three seasons on the deals they signed this winter. If Bieber can get anywhere close to what he looked like at the start of last season, either down the stretch in 2025 or in a prove-it year in 2026, he could be a massive difference-maker pitching at an equally massive discount.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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Dodgers win Rōki Sasaki sweepstakes, cementing status as preferred destination for NPB stars
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Last December, the Dodgers‘ addition of Shohei Ohtani concluded one of their greatest pursuits and began another.
“One of our goals is to have baseball fans in Japan convert to Dodger blue,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said at Ohtani’s introductory press conference, “and to have Shohei along with the rest of his teammates help grow the game and passion for Dodgers baseball all across Japan.”
Weeks later, luring Yoshinobu Yamamoto furthered their cause. And on Friday, the Dodgers cemented their status as the preferred MLB destination for NPB stars and transformed their rotation into a Mount Rushmore of Japanese pitching luminaries by winning the Rōki Sasaki sweepstakes. In a possible ode to Ohtani, Sasaki broke the news of his much-anticipated decision, which was long expected to be Los Angeles, with an Instagram post.
While Ohtani might not be ready to pitch at the outset of the 2025 season, the Dodgers can expect Ohtani, Yamamoto and now Sasaki, three of the most gifted NPB pitchers in recent history, all on the mound for them at some point in 2025.
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Ohtani has been the biggest bargain in the sport, given all the deferrals in his contract and the many revenue streams he creates, but Sasaki can create a strong argument, too, if he pitches to his capabilities.
“He has talked about his desire to be the best pitcher in the world,” Friedman said, “and we believe that he is capable of being the best pitcher in the world.”
Sasaki was affordable for any pitching-needy team, but it was the team with the highest payroll that ultimately secured his services. The reigning champs needed pitching help this winter. By signing Sasaki and Blake Snell, they acquired arguably two of the top three most desired pitchers on the market.
The Dodgers made their interest in Sasaki known early, with Friedman describing the pitcher as “a major priority” at the winter meetings in December. They hoped Sasaki’s experience winning the World Baseball Classic alongside Ohtani and Yamamoto could help their cause.
Clearly, it didn’t hurt.
“He has paid attention to how teams have done, as far as overall success, both this year and years past,” Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, said shortly after Sasaki was posted. “He does watch a lot of Major League Baseball. He has paid attention to what his WBC teammates have done. He’s talked to a lot of players, foreign players, that have been on his team with Chiba Lotte. He asked a lot of questions about weather, about comfortability, about pitching development.”
It’s no wonder, then, why Los Angeles was an obvious fit and why the Dodgers stood out as the favorites to land the latest Japanese sensation. Wolfe advised Sasaki early in the process not to base his decision on how much bonus pool money a team had and to instead consider “the long-term arc” of his career when sifting through his options. Sasaki is entrusting the Dodgers to develop and protect him until he is eligible to sign for the nine-figure deal he would have gotten on the open market.
During their initial pitch to Sasaki, the Dodgers sought to sell the city, the opportunities it could provide, the stability of the organization, the infrastructure they already have in place to support Japanese players and how they could help him grow and develop. In Sasaki, there’s a lot for their pitching development staff to work with. The young flamethrower combines a fastball that gets into the triple digits with a slider and a lethal splitter that routinely misses bats and might already be one of the best offerings in MLB.
Sasaki finished his four-year NPB career going 29-15 with a 2.10 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 5.74 strikeout-to-walk ratio while striking out 11.5 batters per nine innings. His most dominant years came in 2022, when he threw a 19-strikeout perfect game, and 2023, when he struck out 135 batters in 91 innings. His numbers and velocity took a hit last year, likely due in part to the shoulder soreness he experienced. Health and durability are his biggest question marks — he threw fewer than 130 innings in each of his four NPB seasons — but his value is expected to far exceed his contract, regardless. On a deal this affordable, the risk is minimal.
The signing should be a boon to a Dodgers team that entered this winter in the market for starting pitching after surviving a litany of injuries in their rotation to win the World Series. A 2024 season that began with Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, James Paxton, Bobby Miller and Yamamoto in their Opening Day rotation ended with just one of those pitchers, Yamamoto, available in October.
Glasnow was unable to finish out his first year in Los Angeles due to an elbow sprain. Stone emerged as a standout rookie and an invaluable steadying force as injuries beset the rest of the staff until he too eventually succumbed. He will likely miss all of the 2025 season after undergoing shoulder surgery. Paxton was designated for assignment and traded to the Red Sox. Miller was coming off a promising rookie year but took a major step back after dealing with a shoulder issue early in the year. The Dodgers’ options in October dwindled further as young talents Emmet Sheehan, River Ryan and Kyle Hurt all needed Tommy John surgery. The breadth of absences was so significant that Friedman said he planned to put together a task force this offseason to rethink and re-examine how they bring their pitchers along.
In the postseason, they relied on just a three-man rotation of Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler. The latter two pitchers are now free agents, which left the Dodgers in need. They responded admirably.
Whether they revamp the way they develop their pitchers in any meaningful way, adding more of the best arms to the group is one way to combat the industry-wide injury issue.
“There’s no such thing as too much pitching,” Friedman said. “We learned that last year.”
Sasaki will join a Dodgers rotation that is expected to have Glasnow back alongside Snell and Yamamoto as the headliners in the spring. It’s one of the most talented groups in the sport but also one with plenty of health question marks, particularly behind that quintet.
Ohtani was already building back up from his second major elbow reconstruction when he underwent surgery on his left shoulder earlier this month. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May are expected back, but Gonsolin is returning from Tommy John surgery and May has pitched just 191.2 big-league innings — and never more than 56 in a regular season — since debuting as a 21-year-old in 2019.
The Dodgers’ group of young contributors on the mound could include Ben Casparius and Landon Knack, who were both on the playoff roster, as well as Miller and Justin Wrobleski. Prospects Jackson Ferris and Nick Frasso, who missed last year after undergoing labrum surgery, could also work their way into the mix. General manager Brandon Gomes said Sheehan could possibly return at some point in the second half, though that will be determined by his rehab and recovery.
That’s a lot of possibilities, but considering that the Dodgers are still planning to operate a six-man rotation to accommodate the schedules of Yamamoto and Ohtani, that Ohtani’s deferrals created room to add, that even the best-laid pitching plans can go awry (as last year demonstrated) and the high cost of trying to bolster a roster at the deadline, the Dodgers sought to create as stable a group as possible right now.
“My goal is to do everything we can right now to not buy in July,” Friedman said. “It is terrible. It is a terrible time to acquire talent.”
Sasaki significantly raises the ceiling of the group and serves as the latest example of the club’s foothold in Japan. The Dodgers signed Hideo Nomo in 1995, Hiroki Kuroda in 2008 and Kenta Maeda in 2016, but what they’ve done since the end of the 2023 season has reached new heights — and quelled any concern that players coming to the states from NPB want to forge a separate path from other Japanese talents.
“It’s different for every single player,” Wolfe said. “Each player is unique in how they feel about it, and I think it also matters on the player that is already on the team. How much do they reach out to other Japanese players? How are they perceived by this particular Japanese player? And it just varies player to player.”
With Sasaki, Wolfe said having Japanese players already on the team could be an attraction, “to have an older player to help show him the ropes.” In Yamamoto and Ohtani, he’ll have two.
In October, before that duo helped the Dodgers to a World Series title, Friedman began the month in their home country watching Japan’s latest pitching phenom. The Dodgers had long held interest in Sasaki, a prodigy who had been on MLB teams’ radars since his high school days.
Now, he’s the latest example of the Dodgers’ growing influence in Japan. Seven years after their failed pursuit of Ohtani, he’s a Dodger, and so is the latest Japanese amateur free-agent pitching phenom to follow in his footsteps.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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MLB’s 25 biggest bargains in 2025: Where does Shohei Ohtani rank?
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Just a year after Shohei Ohtani signed an awe-inspiring $700 million contract that redefined what anyone thought possible, that record-setting deal was already shattered.
In light of Juan Soto’s $765 million contract with the Mets, we have a new benchmark and understanding for a superstar’s potential worth. With that comes a different appreciation for the value that some of baseball’s top talents are providing on the multiyear pacts they’ve signed.
Surely, Rōki Sasaki will soon be among MLB’s biggest discounts. For now, though, which team-friendly signings and extensions look like the top bargain deals?
The rankings below take into account the entire length of the contract, including the player’s performance to this point in the deal, how much value the player is expected to provide in 2025 and how the contract is likely to age. There’s some subjectiveness to it, but wins above replacement provide a good starting point. Unless otherwise indicated, the WAR totals provided below are from Baseball-Reference.
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A couple of ground rules: Only players who’ve received multi-year extensions or free-agent contracts were included (that means no arbitration-eligible players, no pre-arb players and no one-year deals), and players have to have already started their contract to be included (sorry, Cristopher Sánchez).
While there are a lot of star contracts that fans are surely thrilled with, these are the 25 biggest bargains entering the 2025 season.
25. Andrés Muñoz, Seattle Mariners, RP
Terms: Four years, $7.5M (2022-25) plus club options in 2026 ($6 million), 2027 ($8 million) and 2028 ($10 million)
AAV: $1.9M
2025 salary: $2.5M
2024 WAR: 2.0
WAR accumulated through contract: 4.1
Age in 2025: 26
It’s understandable if you think relievers shouldn’t make this kind of list, but you’ll find two exceptions here. One just finished top three in Cy Young voting. The other is Muñoz, whose 4.1 WAR through the first three years of his deal are nearly equal to the $4.5 million he has earned in that time after signing an extension before the 2022 season. The contract covers his arbitration years, and if he remains one of the better relievers in the game, the Mariners can still get him at a discounted rate for his first three free-agent years.
24. Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs, 2B/SS
Terms: Three years, $35M (2024-26)
AAV: $11.7M
2025 salary: $11.5M
2024 WAR: 3.7
WAR accumulated through contract: 3.7
Age in 2025: 28
You have a pretty good idea what you’re going to get out from Hoerner — elite defense and base-stealing coupled with league-average offense. That’s been good enough for him to be a 3-6 WAR talent through his prime and well worth the $11.5 million he is set to earn in 2025 in what would have been his first free-agent year.
23. Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies, SS
Terms: Seven years, $63.5M (2024-30) plus club option in 2031 ($23M)
AAV: $9.07M
2025 salary: $4.2M
2024 WAR: 3.8
WAR accumulated through contract: 3.4
Age in 2025: 23
The reason players such as Bryce Harper, Fernando Tatis and Will Smith fell just outside this list is because those deals look like incredible bargains now, but might not look quite so advantageous once we reach the 2030s. Tovar, who just got down-ballot MVP votes in his age-22 season, should continue to get better as this deal progresses. His elite defense provides a solid floor and mitigates some of the concerns about his swing decisions. He would’ve been under club control through 2028. With this new deal, getting at least two free-agent years for an AAV under $10 million in his prime should be great value. And if he’s a star by 2030, that $23 million club option in 2031 will be worth the cost.
22. Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals, SP
Terms: Two years, $30M (2024-25) plus player option in 2026 ($15M)
AAV: $15M
2025 salary: $15M
2024 WAR: 5.3
WAR accumulated through contract: 5.3
Age in 2025: 35
The Royals took a chance on Lugo after a successful transition from the bullpen in San Diego, and the 34-year-old put together the most productive season of his career while making just $15 million. Considering the number of pitches in Lugo’s repertoire, and that he doesn’t rely on velocity to produce, he should remain productive through the short-term deal, even if he doesn’t finish second in Cy Young voting again.
21. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants, SP
Terms: Five years, $90M (2024-28)
AAV: $18M
2025 salary: $12M
2024 WAR: 3.7
WAR accumulated through contract: 3.7
Age in 2025: 28
Since the start of the 2021 season, Webb and Aaron Nola are tied for fourth among all starting pitchers with 17.7 fWAR apiece. Nola, who is entering his age-32 season, signed a seven-year, $172 million extension ($24.6 million AAV) with the Phillies before the 2024 season. Webb, who is entering his age-28 season, signed a five-year, $90 million extension ($18 million AAV) and will only cost $12 million in 2025 in what would have been his final year of arbitration. He’ll make about double that every year for the last three years of the deal, but that still looks like a bargain compared to what most pitchers of his caliber would get in free agency.
20. Sandy Alcántara, Miami Marlins, SP
Terms: Five years, $56M (2022-26) plus club option in 2027 ($21M)
AAV: $11.2M
2025 salary: $17.3M
2024 WAR: N/A
WAR accumulated through contract: 11.4
Age in 2025: 29
Alcántara has already missed one of the five seasons on this deal, and yet it still looks like one of the most team-friendly extensions in the sport, given how terrific his 8.0-WAR Cy Young season was to start the contract in 2022. Alcántara hoped to return from Tommy John surgery at some point late last year, and while that didn’t happen, he’ll be back on the mound in 2025. If he can get anywhere close to replicating his previous form, the $11.2 million AAV will look well worth the cost — whether it’s in Miami or with a contending club that would be thrilled to inherit the rest of that contract.
19. Yandy Díaz, Tampa Bay Rays, 1B
Terms: Three years, $24M (2023-25) plus club option in 2026 ($12M)
AAV: $8M
2025 salary: $10M
2024 WAR: 1.6
WAR accumulated through contract: 6.8
Age in 2025: 33
Díaz would have been a free agent in 2025 if not for the three-year extension he signed before the 2023 season. That year alone — he produced a 5.2-WAR All-Star 2023 season while leading the American League with a .330 batting average — made his $24 million contract worth it. If he can find that form again after taking a step back last year, the Rays (or whichever team ends up with him) can keep him for $12 million in 2026, a modest price for an above-average offensive talent.
18. Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox, OF
Terms: Six years, $50M (2020-25) plus club options in 2026 ($20M) and 2027 ($20M)
AAV: $8.5M
2025 salary: $15M
2024 WAR: 1.4
WAR accumulated through contract: 13.9
Age in 2025: 27
Robert’s production to this point, even after taking a disappointing 2024 season, already made his contract worth the price. While his $15 million salary this season doesn’t look like such a bargain anymore, his AAV is about half that amount, which makes the 27-year-old an attractive trade chip. If he can get his strikeout rate down to a more tenable level or get anywhere close to his 2023 All-Star form (whether for the White Sox or another team) again, the $20 million club options in 2026 and 2027 would be palatable. If he doesn’t, the team can just move on.
17. Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves, SP
Terms: Six years, $75M (2023-28) plus club option in 2029 ($22M)
AAV: $12.5M
2025 salary: $4M
2024 WAR: N/A
WAR accumulated through contract: 3.2
Age in 2025: 26
We’ve reached the Atlanta rotation portion of the program. Strider was making $1 million in the first year of his six-year deal in 2023 when the All-Star went 20-5 with the highest strikeout rate among all qualified starters. He only got two starts into his 2024 season before requiring a UCL repair, so it’s hard to know exactly what to expect upon his return. Still, it’s reasonable to assume he should significantly outproduce the $4 million he is set to earn. There’s some risk here once his salary rises to $20-plus million in 2026, but a $12.5 million AAV for a potential Cy Young winner is a chance most teams would be thrilled to take.
16. Reynaldo López, Atlanta Braves, SP
Terms: Three years, $30M (2025-27)
AAV: $10M
2025 salary: $8M
2024 WAR: 5.1
WAR accumulated through contract: 5.1
Age in 2025: 31
Technically, López’s reworked contract starts in 2025, but because it was a restructuring of the three-year, $30 million pact he signed before the 2024 season — the Braves guaranteed his club option in 2027 in exchange for taking less money next season — we’ll make an exception and include him here. Only two pitchers started more than 20 games with a sub-2.00 ERA in 2024. One was Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes. The other was López, who rewarded the Braves’ faith after they made him a starter again. He produced a 5.1-WAR season while making just $4 million in 2024. Considering he hadn’t been a full-time starter in five years, it’ll be interesting to see how he holds up after taking on that added workload.
15. Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves, LHP
Terms: Two years, $38M (2024-25) plus club option in 2026 ($18M)
AAV: $19M
2025 salary: $22M
2024 WAR: 6.2
WAR accumulated through contract: 6.2
Age in 2025: 36
The best pitchers in baseball are going for more than $30 million per season. Sale, meanwhile, just won the pitching triple crown while making $16 million in 2024. Even as his contract calls for a raise to $22 million in 2025, teams would gladly pay that after watching what he did last year.
14. Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers, OF
Terms: Eight years, $82M (2024-31) plus club options in 2032 ($25M) and 2033 ($25M)
AAV: $10.3M
2025 salary: $4.3M
2024 WAR: 3.8
WAR accumulated through contract: 3.8
Age in 2025: 21
Now, to the promising young outfielders. Prior to Chourio’s extension, Robert held the record for the largest contract given to a player before his MLB debut. Chourio shattered it — and with good reason. The 20-year-old did not look overmatched while finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting. Already an above-average hitter, fielder and runner, it looks like Milwaukee has a star for the next decade at a discounted rate.
13. Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners, OF
Terms: 12 years, $209.3M (2023-29); including 2030-34 player options ($18M annual); conditional club options after 2029 (eight or 10 years)
AAV: $17.4M
2025 salary: $20.2M
2024 WAR: 4.3
WAR accumulated through contract: 9.6
Age in 2025: 24
There are a number of different possible iterations to this deal, which will be determined by Rodríguez’s performance over the next decade. The Mariners have a club option after the 2028 season, for either eight or 10 years, worth anywhere from $200 million to $350 million based on his MVP finishes. If the Mariners turn that down, Rodríguez has a five-year player option worth anywhere from $90 million to $125 million based on All-Star appearances and Silver Slugger awards won in the first eight years of the deal.
To put it as simply as possible, the base deal is for $119.3 million for seven years, but he’s guaranteed $210 million with the possibility of maxing out as high as $470 million. If he does max that out, it’s likely because he has fulfilled his massive potential and is perennially one of the top talents in the game. It’s the most lucrative deal Seattle has ever given out, but the position-player-starved club should be thrilled to have a player of his caliber for a CBT hit of just over $17 million.
12. Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves, OF
Terms: Eight years, $72M (2023-30) plus club options in 2031 ($15M) and 2032 ($20M)
AAV: $9M
2025 salary: $8M
2024 WAR: 3.2
WAR accumulated through contract: 6.6
Age in 2025: 24
Other team-friendly contracts in Atlanta might get more attention, but this one shouldn’t get lost in the shuffle. Over the past three years, only four center fielders have been worth more fWAR than Harris, even after a down year offensively in 2024. While chase is part of his game, and he’s not going to walk much, the underlying numbers suggested some bad luck last season, and his elite defense provides a high floor. He’s already one of the best players at his position in MLB, and he won’t even be making $10 million for another four years. Any risk Atlanta assumed by inking him to a long-term deal just 71 games into his big-league career appears to be well worth it now. Expect better things ahead in 2025 and beyond.
11. Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers, SP
Terms: Five years, $15.5M (2020-24) plus $8M club options in 2025 (exercised) & 2026
AAV: $3.1M
2025 salary: $8M
2024 WAR: 2.6
WAR accumulated through contract: 9.8
Age in 2025: 29
Whatever Peralta does this year, his deal is already one of the biggest bargains in MLB. From 2020 to 2024, the only pitcher to throw 500 innings with a higher strikeout rate than Peralta was Blake Snell. Throughout that time, the Brewers paid a total of $15.5 million for Peralta’s services. Needless to say, Milwaukee picked up the $8 million club option on Peralta for 2025 after he hit the 200-strikeout mark for the second straight season and recorded a sub-4.00 ERA for the fifth straight year.
10. Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians, RP
Terms: Five years, $20M (2022-26) plus club options in 2027 ($10M) & 2028 ($10M)
AAV: $4M
2025 salary: $4.9M
2024 WAR: 4.4
WAR accumulated through contract: 7.8
Age in 2025: 27
You can debate whether relievers should be put in the top 10, but I’m making Clase an exception. He just finished third in Cy Young voting while tallying a 0.61 ERA and leading the American League in saves for the third straight season. Over those three years, the Guardians have paid $6.7 million for 7.8 WAR. If we’re strictly talking about the value a player provides, it doesn’t get much better than that. Most teams would be happy to pay him a total of $20 million over two seasons. The Guardians are paying that amount over five, then have the option of keeping him in Cleveland for $10 million apiece in 2027 and 2028, which would have been his first two free-agent years. Even as a reliever, this is one of the best pitching bargains in baseball.
9. Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks, 2B
Terms: Five years, $76M (2023-27) plus club option in 2028 ($13M)
AAV: $15.2M
2025 salary: $16.6M
2024 WAR: 6.8
WAR accumulated through contract: 11.7
Age in 2025: 31
In March 2018, coming off a season in Arizona in which he hit below league average, the Diamondbacks displayed their belief in Marte by giving the 24-year-old a five-year, $24 million extension. Marte rewarded general manager Mike Hazen’s faith then — he was an All-Star in 2019 when he launched 32 homers and accumulated 6.9 WAR — and now he’s doing so again. At 30 years old last season, Marte barreled the ball more consistently than ever before while posting career highs in homers and RBIs and finishing third in MVP voting. He has been one of the best second basemen in baseball the past two years, yet his AAV is about $10 million cheaper than the going rate for that kind of a player.
8. Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks, OF
Terms: Eight years, $111M (2023-30) plus 2031 club option ($28M)
AAV: $13.9M
2025 salary: $5.6M
2024 WAR: 3.4
WAR accumulated through contract: 8.8
Age in 2025: 24
Carroll’s extension was the largest contract ever given to a player with fewer than 100 days service time, buying out his arbitration years plus at least two free-agent seasons and breaking the record the Braves gave Harris. For the first year, it looked like one of the biggest steals in the sport. The 2024 season was more inauspicious, however, and you have to wonder if his balky shoulder will continue to impact his offensive output.
Still, his second half was encouraging, his speed and defense give him a high floor, and the potential is there for Carroll — who has 47 homers and 89 steals the past two seasons — to be one of the top position players in the sport for the next decade. If he fulfills those expectations, having what would have been those first couple free-agent seasons for less than $30 million per year will be a bargain.
7. Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds, SP
Terms: Six years, $53M (2023-28) plus club option in 2029 ($21M)
AAV: $8.8M
2025 salary: $6.3M
2024 WAR: 6.3
WAR accumulated through contract: 7.2
Age in 2025: 25
The first two years of Greene’s big-league career were all about potential. In 2024, he began to fulfill it. By bWAR (6.3), he was the most valuable pitcher in the National League, and he was only making a tick over $3 million. There are performance escalators that could max this contract out at closer to $95 million, but Greene is due to make less than $10 million until 2027 when his contract balloons to $15 million, a number teams would gladly pay for a player of his caliber. Greene would have been a free agent in 2028 if not for the extension — the largest the Reds have ever given to a player before he reaches arbitration. To now have him that year for $16 million and have the option to keep him in 2029 for $21 million looks like a prudent call before Greene stands to cash in again.
6. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals, SS
Terms: 11 years, $288.8M (2024-34); opt-outs after 2030, 2031, 2032, 2033; club option 2035-37 ($89M)
AAV: $26.3M
2025 salary: $7.7M
2024 WAR: 9.4
WAR accumulated through contract: 9.4
Age in 2025: 25
Soto just put together a career-best 7.9 WAR season and will now carry a $51 million AAV for the next 15 years. Witt, meanwhile, just compiled a 9.4 WAR season in one of the best all-around years from a shortstop ever, will make $7.7 million in 2025 and will carry an AAV that’s about half of Soto’s. He was worth 3.4 WAR for every $1 million he earned last season. It’s tremendous value right now, and it should continue to be, even as his salary rockets up to more than $30 million per season starting in 2028, which would have been his first free-agent year.
It’s possible this only ends up a seven-year, $148-million pact — Witt has a flurry of opt-outs available to him after the 2030 season — but even if he doesn’t stay for all 11 years, the largest contract in Royals franchise history has made Kansas City relevant for the foreseeable future and looks well worth the cost to keep the superstar in town through his 20s. There are five MLB shortstops with a higher AAV than Witt in 2025. There are none with a brighter future.
5. José Ramírez, Cleveland Guardians, 3B
Terms: Seven years, $141M (2022-28)
AAV: $20.1M
2025 salary: $19M
2024 WAR: 6.8
WAR accumulated through contract: 17.9
Age in 2025: 32
Here’s a deal that didn’t take much projecting. Everyone knew Ramírez was leaving tens of millions on the table when he decided to stay in Cleveland with his most recent extension, which was the largest in franchise history and still a massive bargain. Now, the Guardians continue to reap the rewards of employing one of the best baseball players on the planet. While it remains to be seen if he can continue to play this way through his 30s, the six-time All-Star is showing no signs of slowing down and is consistently one of the top superstars in the game. Ramírez has produced between 5-7 WAR each of the past four years, and by fWAR, has been one of the five most valuable position players in baseball since 2017.
4. Yordan Álvarez, Houston Astros, OF/DH
Terms: Six years, $115M (2023-28)
AAV: 19.2M
2025 salary: $15.8M
2024 WAR: 5.4
WAR accumulated through contract: 10.0
Age in 2025: 28
Given all he’s accomplished already, it’s easy to forget Álvarez is only 27 years old. Over the past three years, he has hit 88%, 70% and 72% better than league average by OPS. In that time, he ranks in the top 10 in WAR, top three in OPS and second behind only Aaron Judge in wRC+. Assuming he stays close to those marks in 2025, when he’ll make just $15.8 million — a sum that’s less than teammates José Altuve, Christian Walker, Josh Hader, Framber Valdez and Lance McCullers Jr. — a massive payday would have awaited.
Instead, the Astros prudently extended him and bought out what would have been his first three free-agent years for less than $27 million per year. (How many teams would line up at the door to pay Álvarez three years and $80 million in free agency?) Now, the Astros have one of the most feared hitters in baseball at an AAV under $20 million. That production is all the more important, too, with Kyle Tucker now in Chicago. As long as he can stay on the field, this should represent extraordinary value throughout the entirety of the deal.
3. Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves, 2B
Terms: Seven years, $35M (2019-25) plus club options in 2026 ($7M) and 2027 ($7M)
AAV: $5M
2025 salary: $7M
2024 WAR: 1.6
WAR accumulated through contract: 16.3
Age in 2025: 28
This deal was such an obvious coup from the start that it almost felt cruel. And even though Albies has been unable to consistently stay on the field or perform to the level of others on this list, he has still (to no one’s surprise) far outplayed the contract he signed. Albies would have been eligible for arbitration after the 2020 season and for free agency after the 2023 season, when he was a 4.7-WAR player and an All-Star for the third time. A nine-figure sum would almost certainly have awaited him.
Had Albies let that process play out rather than signing this extension, it’s more than reasonable to think he would now be making three times as much as he will be in 2025. Instead, the Braves paid him $7 million in 2024 and will do so again this coming season. They have the option to continue paying him that amount in 2026 and 2027. Even after a down year for Albies, the cost is absurdly low and the risk is minimal.
2. Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves, OF
Terms: Eight years, $100M (2019-26) plus club options in 2027 ($17M) and 2028 ($17M)
AAV: $12.5M
2025 salary: $17M
2024 WAR: 0.0 (played 49 games)
WAR accumulated through contract: 21.9
Age in 2025: 27
The majority of this list could have just been the Braves roster. Before the 2024 season, Acuña’s contract would have ranked No. 1. And if we’re strictly talking about value on the field, it might still be, although there’s at least more of a question now about how he will perform going forward after his unusually poor start to the 2024 campaign was cut short due to his second ACL tear in three years. Still, even if he doesn’t get back to his previous record-setting combination of speed and power, this contract is already arguably the biggest steal in the game. If he does return to peak form, the Braves get to keep (another) one of the most talented players in the sport at a significant discount through his 20s.
1. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers, DH/SP
Terms: 10 years, $700M (2024-33); $680 million deferred until 2034
AAV: $46M
2025 salary: $2M ($70M with $68M deferred)
2024 WAR: 9.2
WAR accumulated through contract: 9.2
Age in 2025: 30
How does a $700 million contract take the top spot on a bargains list? When less than 3% of it will be paid over the next 10 years. Ohtani just became the first 50/50 player in MLB history and was worth almost 10 WAR despite exclusively being a designated hitter, and he made only $2 million in 2024. The massive deferrals in his contract — $68 million per year — lowered the present-day value of his deal to $460 million, which dropped his AAV to $46 million and helped the Dodgers build a championship roster around him. Given his unrivaled influence, his unprecedented contract provides unparalleled value in both the baseball and business sense.
Assuming the Dodgers invest all of his deferred money wisely (and taking into account the numerous sales, marketing and sponsorship revenue streams he creates with his global appeal), the deal should ultimately pay for itself. The Dodgers announced eight different multiyear partnerships with Japanese-based companies within the first two months of the 2024 season after signing Ohtani, and companies were even buying ad space in visiting stadiums when the Dodgers hit the road to get in on the money machine. Taking everything into account, Ohtani already looks well worth what was, for one year, the largest contract in MLB history. And he hasn’t even pitched yet.
Honorable Mentions: Shōta Imanaga, Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Will Smith, Fernando Tatís Jr., JP Crawford, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Max Muncy, Bryan Reynolds, Luke Weaver, Erick Fedde
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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Eight burning questions/predictions post-MLB winter meetings
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Mets owner Steve Cohen ignited the action early at the winter meetings. The hot stove has been burning since.
The teams who whiffed on Juan Soto have gotten busy. Both the free-agent and trade markets are hot, pitchers are getting paid and salaries are well-exceeding initial projections.
The Yankees (Max Fried) and Red Sox (Garrett Crochet) found their new aces, but Corbin Burnes remains available, while Roki Sasaki has a big decision ahead that isn’t expected to be announced until the week of Jan. 15. Willy Adames has found his new home in San Francisco, but Alex Bregman is still out there. The Cubs found their much-needed star in Kyle Tucker, but the top outfielders behind Soto are still there for the taking, and none of the big first basemen have moved yet.
After a busy winter meetings in Dallas, here are eight lingering questions and some guesses at what could happen next.
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1. Beyond going for Sasaki, are other big moves ahead for Dodgers?
The Dodgers have made it clear that Sasaki will be a major priority, but whether it’s the NPB star, a top relief arm, another corner outfielder or all three, the reigning champs likely have more to come this winter after signing Blake Snell, Michael Conforto and Blake Treinen.
“My goal is to not buy in July,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has repeated multiple times this offseason. “I am setting that out there right now. My goal is to do everything we can right now to not buy in July. It is terrible.”
The Dodgers had to do that at the 2024 trade deadline after watching their seemingly deep pitching staff crumble. The additions of Jack Flaherty and Michael Kopech were vital pieces in their road to a championship, but the former is a free agent. Postseason standout Walker Buehler is, too.
They expect Tyler Glasnow, who missed the postseason run with an elbow sprain, to be healthy for the start of next season. He has already started throwing again, and Snell, Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto should make for a formidable top three. But most of the rotation, which is likely to feature six pitchers, brings health concerns.
Shohei Ohtani should be back on the mound next season, but it likely won’t be when the Dodgers open their season March 18 in Japan. Ohtani is expected to be ready to hit then, but it is “very unlikely” he’ll be pitching then, according to manager Dave Roberts. Ohtani is throwing out to 60 feet as he starts to ramp back up, but he’s coming off labrum surgery on his left (non-throwing) shoulder, and the Dodgers will want to control his innings as he works his way back from his second elbow reconstruction.
“Obviously, we don’t want him to throw 225 innings,” general manager Brandon Gomes said. “So, we’ve just got to kind of see where this throwing program goes, how he continues to feel, have these conversations like we do with most of our guys. What we feel like is most important is that he is ready to pitch at his highest level when the games matter the most. Early-season games are very important, but we feel like if we can get him to a position where he is peaking towards the end of the season, that is the ideal scenario.”
Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin should be good to go this spring, but they both missed the 2024 season. The Dodgers still intend to bring Clayton Kershaw back, but he underwent knee and foot surgeries in November.
If all goes to plan, they should be able to field one of the best rotations in the sport. But as they found out last year, it rarely does. So, whether it’s Sasaki or someone else, they could look to add starting pitching. Another addition could also happen in the bullpen.
The Dodgers brought back Treinen and could use him as their closer, as they did in the postseason, but they’re still interested in adding one of the top available relief arms on the market. Devin Williams‘ trade to the Yankees removes one intriguing option, but there are plenty left in free agency, including Tanner Scott.
“If we can add an additional reliever, that helps increase the chances of us not going to market in July,” Friedman said. “So, yeah, I could see us looking to do that. Now, it doesn’t mean we’ll be able to, but I could see us looking.”
And then there’s the outfield vacancy left by outfielder Teoscar Hernández, who remains a candidate to return but will draw plenty of interest from the teams who missed out on Soto.
The addition of Conforto on a one-year deal provides the Dodgers some insurance, but it won’t preclude them from looking to add more help. The Dodgers had reached out about Conforto last trade deadline. Now, after securing him this week, they see him as someone who can play either left or right.
“I think, again, there’s different ways we can get at this,” Friedman said. “We can have a team that has a little bit more power. We can have a team that makes a little bit more contact. We can have a team that plays a little bit better defense. There’s just a lot of different ways to get at value and production and winning baseball games. So, with that, it opens some things up, and there’s interesting guys on the market — either trade or free-agent market — and a number of different things that we’re kind of looking at.”
Prediction: Dodgers sign Tanner Scott or find another way to further bolster the bullpen
2. Will there be an L.A. reunion with Teoscar Hernández?
Hernández has expressed a desire to return to Los Angeles and called the Dodgers “the priority” after serving as a key cog in the middle of their championship lineup.
That remains the likeliest conclusion as the two sides remain engaged about a potential return, but his market should heat up after outfield-needy teams missed out on Juan Soto.
“He had a really good year,” Friedman said. “He put himself in a great position, and I know that he has talked about wanting to [come back], I know that we have talked about wanting him to. So again, that’s helpful, but it’s not everything. He and his family get to go through the interest and figure out what makes the most sense for them. So, while we’re hopeful, at the same time, if he ends up signing somewhere else, we have no choice but to wish him well, and on a personal level we’ll be really happy for him. And professionally, not so much.”
Boston was interested in Hernández last winter before he signed with the Dodgers. The Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees would all make sense for Hernández after their failed pursuits of Soto. The Phillies could be another potential landing spot given their need for more outfield pop.
But Hernández played a major role in the Dodgers’ success last season and was a perfect fit both on the field, where he was an All-Star, and in the clubhouse, where he struck an immediate relationship with Ohtani and was a seed-throwing joy. Roberts said it would be tough to have to replace his presence in both regards.
“There’s not a whole lot of guys that can start 157, 158 ball games and post, and then to be that productive,” Roberts said. “Then you layer on being in a big market, helping us win a championship. So, those players don’t come around very often. But obviously Teo has put himself in a very good position as a free agent and had a very productive year. So, he’s got some decisions to make as well. He’s going to kind of suss those out. Yeah, I just … it would be hard for me not to see him coming back.”
Hernández took a one-year contract in Los Angeles last season hoping to play for a winner and re-establish his value. He went from posting a .741 OPS in 2023 in Seattle to an .840 OPS in 2024 in a bounce-back year in Los Angeles.
More multi-year offers should await this time.
“We’ll continue to look for ways to improve our team,” Gomes said, “and I’m sure have additional conversations there.”
Prediction: Hernández returns to Dodgers on three-year deal
3. How much further does the Yankees’ “Plan B” go?
Max Fried was a nice start after missing out on Soto, even if eight years is a long time for a 31-year-old pitcher with forearm issues. It also gave them a glut of starting pitching options, which they’ve already used to swing a deal for Devin Williams.
Getting a new ace and a shutdown closer helps erase the bitter taste of losing the Soto sweepstakes, but I’d expect more ahead. For them to fully salvage their offseason, they need a more impactful force (or two) in the lineup.
They’ve been linked to Cody Bellinger, and now that Tucker went to the Cubs, that fit seems to make more and more sense given his left-handed bat — he hit 18 homers last year, but it would’ve been 24 if he played all his games at Yankee Stadium last year — and ability to play both center field and first base. If they could get him and sign Bregman or Christian Walker — they need a corner infield upgrade, and I like the fit better with Walker than Pete Alonso — that would go a long way toward easing their fans’ pain.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Tucker trade — which netted the Astros third baseman Isaac Paredes, who should have a field day with the Crawford Boxes — impacts Houston’s willingness to get a deal done with Bregman. The Astros could theoretically still sign Bregman and move Paredes to first base, but it looks like a move to protect themselves if Bregman gets an offer they’re unwilling to match. Owner Jim Crane has never committed more than $151 million to a player, so if he were to bring Bregman back, he’d have to go where he hasn’t before.
If the Yankees don’t get Bregman, perhaps they get into the Nolan Arenado mix.
Prediction: Trade for Cody Bellinger and sign Alex Bregman or Christian Walker
4. Speaking of … does Nolan Arenado get dealt?
The Cardinals have already made it clear their intention is to trade Arenado. Now, it’s about finding a fit.
Arenado has a full no-trade clause, and his agent Joel Wolfe said the ideal destination is a place “that’s going to win now and consistently for the remainder of his career.” However, the Southern California native reportedly has the Angels among his initial six-team wish list, so maybe a winning culture isn’t the only requirement. Still, the Angels have been among the more active teams in free agency this winter, and the fit would make sense considering their lack of infield stability.
Wolfe said Arenado is willing to move around and play first base, but that wouldn’t seem to make much sense considering his power has fallen precipitously in recent years and his reliable glove at the hot corner is what still makes him an attractive commodity. This could be a fit for a team that misses out on Bregman.
Prediction: Traded to Red Sox, Yankees, Astros, Tigers or Angels
5. Can the Orioles get their next ace?
Getting Tyler O’Neill is a start, but with Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander becoming free agents, this doesn’t look like a team that’s better than it was a year ago barring another leap forward from their young guys.
They need an ace, but how much is the new ownership group willing to pay? We don’t know the answer yet. It’ll probably cost around $250 million to keep Burnes, who stands alone as the only member of the top tier of starting pitching free agents still available (apart from Roki Sasaki).
They could shop in the next tier and look at Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea or Walker Buehler, but the bigger swings would come on the trade front. With all the young talent still in place, maybe they get their next Burnes, well, the same way they got Burnes.
Prediction: Trade for Dylan Cease, Luis Castillo or Sonny Gray
6. Do the Giants have another splash ahead?
The Giants needed more power in the middle of the lineup and help up the middle defensively, so the Willy Adames fit made sense. But to really contend, they can’t be done yet. Adding an ace or another imposing force in the lineup feels like a necessity.
Which puts them in a difficult spot.
They don’t have a particularly robust farm system, so is dealing someone like top prospect Bryce Eldridge or a package involving Camilo Doval, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Kyle Harrison the right move? Of course, if they’re willing to spend, that’s not a question they have to answer. Even with Adames, their payroll is almost $40 million under what it was last year, with Conforto, Snell and Mark Canha off the books. That’s enough for one more big splash.
My guess is that they move forward in their attempt to start the Buster Posey era with a bang.
Prediction: Sign Corbin Burnes or trade for Cody Bellinger
7. Will the Mariners trade from their strength?
The Mariners don’t want to deal someone from their loaded big-league rotation. But at some point, that’s probably what it will take to land the kind of substantial offensive addition they need. They can’t just add on the margins if they want to seriously contend, and it’s a tough place to convince a free-agent hitter to play.
If they’re not willing to considerably up the payroll, it might require an uncomfortable decision on Luis Castillo or possibly Emerson Hancock. They’re in a winnable division, and after last year’s disappointment, they need to find a way to add more infield pop.
Prediction: Trade for Alec Bohm, Triston Casas, Cody Bellinger, Josh Naylor or Yandy Díaz
8. Which potential contenders take a needed big swing?
No prediction here; just an observation. As much action as there is going on in New York and Los Angeles, there are a lot of teams on the playoff fringes with work to do. The Mariners are certainly one of them, but that list goes far beyond Seattle.
Garrett Crochet is a great start in the Boston retool, but are Red Sox owners willing to spend what it takes to be relevant again? Andrés Giménez is a terrific defender, but will the Blue Jays address their offensive shortcomings and/or land the superstar that has eluded them?
The Reds addressed their rotation but could use an impact outfield bat to leap forward in the NL Central. The D-backs could use pitching help and a Walker replacement if they’re going to compete with the Dodgers, Padres and Giants. The Tigers need more right-handed pop in the infield to build on their surprise playoff run. And are the Twins going to do anything?
The winter meetings laid the groundwork, but plenty still lies ahead.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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Is Roki Sasaki a lock to the Dodgers? The latest on the Japanese phenom’s free agency
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DALLAS — The Roki Sasaki sweepstakes have begun.
The top international free agent was officially posted this week, opening a 45-day window for teams to make their pitches to the 23-year-old flamethrower from Japan.
Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe, speaking from the Hilton Anatole at MLB’s winter meetings, said the process will be “open-ended.” Wolfe expects to meet with Sasaki in the next couple of days and then map out a schedule to meet with teams, likely starting next week. Those meetings will take place in a central location first before Sasaki potentially begins visiting “a few isolated places” in a second round of meetings.
The 2024 international signing period ends Dec. 15. Sasaki is expected to sign during the 2025 international signing period, which begins Jan. 15. Every team will then have somewhere between $5-8 million to work with as bonus pools reset.
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“Teams have already begun sending presentations, both in video and powerpoint, PDF-form, that sort of thing,” Wolfe said, estimating that he has seen three or four so far. “But we didn’t give teams a hard deadline to submit that information because we want them to be able to put the time in to do it right.”
For a quick refresher, this won’t be like Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s situation a year ago when he signed for 12 years and $325 million, earning the biggest contract ever for a pitcher.
Sasaki might’ve commanded something similar if he were available on the open market, but because he is not yet 25, he is subject to international amateur free-agent restrictions. That means he can only sign a minor-league deal from a team’s international bonus pool. He is widely considered to be one of the top pitchers available, and he will come at a fraction of the cost of most free agents, opening the door for every team to make its pitch. Wolfe estimates that “at least half the league” has scouted Sasaki in Japan this year.
Here’s some of what Wolfe had to say about how the process will work, what we know about Sasaki and what we can expect over the next 45 days.
Why is Sasaki signing now instead of waiting until he’s 25 and can make significantly more money?
It’s a question that’s difficult for Wolfe to answer.
“Some of it is Japanese culture, some of it is just Roki Sasaki,” Wolfe said. “There are no absolutes in baseball, and through Roki’s eyes, there are no absolutes in life.”
Wolfe said the tragedies Sasaki has dealt with — when he was 9, Sasaki lost his father and grandparents in the tsunami that resulted from the devastating 2011 earthquake — have shaped his life perspective. He doesn’t take anything for granted.
“It is not an absolute lock, as some people in baseball have assumed, that two years from now he’s going to get a Yamamoto contract,” Wolfe continued. “Baseball just doesn’t work that way. If you look at the epidemic of injuries that pitchers here suffer, they have the same potential issues. He could have Tommy John surgery. He’s had two shoulder injuries. He’s had oblique injuries. Things may not go the way they want.”
In addition, Sasaki’s experience pitching in the World Baseball Classic intensified his desire to make the leap.
“It’s always been his dream to come to the major leagues since he was in high school,” Wolfe said. “He has grown up idolizing players like Yu Darvish and [Masahiro] Tanaka and [Daisuke] Matsuzaka. This is something he’s always wanted to do, and when he went to WBC and he was around some of these major-league players, it really rubbed off on him that he became sure that, ‘This is what I want to do as soon as possible,’ and it just further solidified his decision-making process.”
Wolfe said Sasaki doesn’t yet know much about the individual teams and cities. He has encouraged Sasaki to enter the process with an open mind and categorically denied any speculation that a handshake deal has already been made, despite wide speculation that the Dodgers, who employ Sasaki’s WBC teammates Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani, are the favorites.
“There were some accusations, allegations, all of them false, made about predetermined deals, things like that,” Wolfe said. “However, MLB rightly wanted to make sure this was going to be a fair and level playing field for everyone. So, they did their due diligence and interviewed numerous parties ahead of time to make sure that was the case. And they wanted to make sure that Roki would most likely, while he would have the opportunity to sign in ‘24, give himself the best opportunity to get the best deal for him and for Chiba, and that Chiba would also have that opportunity. So, it made sense to post at this time so he could go into the ‘25 pool when the teams will have much more substantial international bonus money.”
Does that mean teams with more international bonus pool money have an upper hand?
“Given the gap in the bonus pool amounts is so negligible, my advice to him is, ‘Don’t make a decision based on that,'” Wolfe said, “because the long-term arc of your career is where you’re going to earn your money. So, it’s probably not advisable to make a short-term decision in that regard.”
So, what is most important to Sasaki?
Wolfe is still getting a feel for that.
He has known Sasaki “for a little over two years now” and said “it has been a little bit difficult to really ascertain what his decision-making process would be for choosing a team because his focus has been predominantly on whether or not he’s going to be able to post.”
Now, that obstacle is out of the way.
The Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki’s NPB team, announced in November that they would begin the posting process — to the surprise of many, considering the posting fee that they will receive will be significantly less than what they would have gotten had they waited until Sasaki was 25 — but Wolfe didn’t know until a few days ago when it would officially happen.
Wolfe said Sasaki has asked “for a broad range of information” and “to suggest information about different teams and regions that we think might be beneficial to him.”
“The best I can say is, he has paid attention to how teams have done, as far as overall success both this year and years past,” Wolfe said. “He does watch a lot of Major League Baseball. He has paid attention to what his WBC teammates have done. He’s talked to a lot of players, foreign players, that have been on his team with Chiba Lotte. He has asked a lot of questions about weather, about comfortability, about pitching development. And just watching what other Japanese players in the major leagues are doing and how they are doing.”
Does that mean he would be more open to joining a team with Japanese players?
Dating back to the pursuits of Kodai Senga and Yamamoto, many teams asked Wolfe whether having Japanese players already on their team would be an obstacle or an attraction for his Japanese clients.
“And it’s different for every single player,” Wolfe said. “Each player is unique in how they feel about it, and I think it also matters on the player that is already on the team, how much do they reach out to other Japanese players? How are they perceived by this particular Japanese player? And it just varies player to player.”
So, is it more of an attraction for Sasaki?
“It could be, to have an older player to help show him the ropes,” Wolfe said. “But anyone that knows Roki Sasaki, this is one of the most driven, intense players I’ve ever known and been around, and I wouldn’t say he would necessarily need it to succeed.”
Do West Coast teams have an advantage?
“He’s never brought that up as an issue,” Wolfe said. “When we supply information to our players, our Japanese players, long before they come over here, one of the things that we provide for them is direct flights from Japan and the amount of time it takes for family to come and visit you. I think about five or 10 years ago that was something that maybe they weighed a little bit more, but now you can fly direct from Japan to most of the major cities in the U.S. It’s not really that much of an issue anymore.”
Asked how the Padres would fit, considering Sasaki’s admiration for Darvish, Wolfe said he assumed “that would be a team that he would seriously consider.”
Wolfe added that he hasn’t talked to Sasaki about his relationship with Ohtani.
Do smaller or mid-market teams have a chance?
“Yeah, absolutely,” Wolfe said. “I think that there’s an argument to be made that a small or mid-market team might be more beneficial for him as a soft landing coming from Japan, given what he’s been through and not having an enjoyable experience with the media. It might be … I’m not saying it will be, but I don’t know how he’s going to view it, it might be beneficial for him to be in a smaller market. But I really don’t know how he looks at it yet because I haven’t had a chance to really sit down and discuss it with him in great detail.”
Wait, what’s the situation with the media in Japan?
“The media in Japan has been very tough on him, and he’s not had a great time with it,” Wolfe said. “My personal opinion is that it’s been a bit unfair, and it’s affected him mentally a little bit.”
Wolfe later elaborated on those issues: “There’s been a lot of negativity in the media directed at him because he has expressed interest at going to play for MLB at such a young age. That’s considered in Japan to be very disrespectful and sort of swimming upstream. There’s been a lot of things … a lot of people jumped on board there creating some false rumors about him and his family. It was very detrimental to his mental state.”
Would all of that rule out a place like New York?
“He hasn’t said anything negative about any particular city, and he actually hasn’t said anything overly positive about it,” Wolfe said. “We haven’t had any detailed discussions about particular cities yet. But I think he can handle it, just based on what I’ve seen.”
When will Sasaki make his choice?
While the signing won’t take place until at least Jan. 15, it’s possible Sasaki makes his decision before then.
“The incentive to sign as early as possible is to get the visa process going so that he would be on time for spring training,” Wolfe said. “So, the earlier we make a decision, the better. Nobody would want him to be showing up late to spring training.”
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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