It’s not surprising to see Japan and the Dominican Republic emerge from World Baseball Classic pool play undefeated. The third unbeaten squad, though? It’s not who anyone would’ve expected.
The 20-team field is down to eight, and while pool play didn’t go the way Team USA would’ve envisioned, the dream team survived thanks to Italy’s extraordinary 4-0 run through Pool B. Now, the top four favorites from our initial World Baseball Classic power rankings still remain standing, but Italy looks capable of taking any team down.
Before the quarterfinals begin Friday night in Houston and Miami, here are the countries still vying for a championship — ranked from eight to one — along with a player to watch and an X-factor for every team.
– WBC Standings, Bracket, Schedule: How To Watch
8. Korea (2-2, Pool C Runners-Up)
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This is already a step forward for Korea, which failed to advance out of the first round of the last three tournaments. But this is also the only team in the tournament with multiple losses. Korea moved on over Australia and Chinese Taipei, who were also 2-2, due to tiebreaker rules. Every run mattered in a 7-2 Korea victory over Australia in a tense finish to the pool. A much tougher test awaits against the Dominican Republic in the quarterfinal. Considering Korea’s best attribute is its hitting — not a pitching staff that has a 4.50 ERA this WBC (and tallied a 7.55 ERA in the last one) — a tall task awaits against one of the scariest lineups in the tournament.
Player to Watch: Do Yeong Kim
Kim only has four hits in the tournament, but he has made them count. The 2024 KBO MVP hit a go-ahead two-run home run against Chinese Taipei (and later tied the game in the eighth with an RBI double in a game Korea ultimately lost in extra innings) and contributed an RBI single in the Australia win. There are MLB players on this roster, but both Kim — who became the youngest player in KBO history two years ago to join the 30-30 club as just 20 years old — and reigning KBO Rookie of the Year Hyun Min Ahn, whose sacrifice fly against Australia made the difference in advancing, also bring a lot of firepower to this lineup.
X-factor: Bo Gyeong Moon
The 25-year-old KBO slugger hit more than 20 home runs each of the last two seasons and has been the team’s top hitter this tournament. He knocked in four runs in the deciding game against Australia and leads all players in the WBC with 11 RBI.
7. Canada (3-1, Pool A Winners)
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Canada has advanced to the quarterfinals for the first time in the country’s history and has an argument to be one spot ahead here, especially considering its victory against Puerto Rico in Pool A. But a cruel reward awaits for its pool-play success with a date against Logan Webb and Team USA. Will Canada avenge its Winter Olympic gold-medal hockey losses on the diamond? It won’t be easy, but every player in the lineup has big-league experience and the pitching staff has allowed just six earned runs in the tournament.
Player to Watch: Owen Caissie
The Canada lineup features a 2024 All-Star in Josh Naylor among many MLB veterans, but one of the stars of the show is still making his name. Owen Caissie, Miami’s top position player prospect, is 7-for-14 with three doubles and a home run. He started and ended the scoring in the game against Cuba that sent Canada through to the quarterfinals by knocking in two runs.
X-factor: Michael Soroka
One former MLB All-Star already shut down the U.S. roster, when Team Italy’s Michael Lorenzen fired 4.2 scoreless innings in an upset win. Will Soroka make it a second? The 2019 All-Star allowed one run in three innings in a win against Colombia earlier in the tournament, and Canada will surely need Soroka to give the club length against USA’s lineup if it wants a chance of advancing.
6. Puerto Rico (3-1, Pool A Runners-Up)
The home-field advantage is gone as the club travels from San Juan to Houston. Puerto Rico didn’t win its pool, but it did put on a show for its fans, particularly with a 10-inning walk-off victory against Panama that provided one of the most memorable highlights of the tournament. The insurance issues hit this country hard, particularly on the offensive side. The team is batting just .211 with one home run in the tournament, but Puerto Rico’s pitchers have the lowest ERA in the WBC (1.22).
Player to Watch: Nolan Arenado
He has made some fantastic plays in the field this tournament. He had a slow start to the tournament offensively, but perhaps his 3-for-4 day against Canada will get him going.
X-factor: Darell Hernaiz
With no Francisco Lindor or Carlos Correa, Puerto Rico needed another infielder to step up. Enter Hernaiz, who took advantage of the opportunity. It was Hernaiz’s walk-off homer that sent Hiram Bithorn Stadium into a frenzy. Does he have more magic in his bat?
5. Italy (4-0, Pool B Winners)
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This team is the story of the tournament. In a pool that included the best U.S. team ever assembled and a Mexico squad that nearly made it to the 2023 finals, it was Italy that emerged undefeated. The young squad, composed primarily of prospects and recent MLB call-ups, has the country believing.
Player to Watch: Vinnie Pasquantino
Pasquantino is the heart and soul of this squad. The captain played a vital role in recruiting the players on the roster, and while his value primarily came from his leadership and defense through the first three games of the tournament, the Royals slugger finally broke out against Mexico with the first three-homer game in WBC history (and his life).
X-factor: Dante Nori
On any night, any number of prospects on this team can carry the offense. But the best hitter of that group so far has been Nori, the Phillies’ 2024 first-round pick, who’s 6-for-12 with two homers and a double to start the tournament. That offensive production will be all the more important with standout catcher Kyle Teel out for the rest of the tournament with a hamstring injury.
4. Venezuela (3-1, Pool D Runners-Up)
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Venezuela already punched its ticket to the quarterfinals before its final pool-play game against the Dominican Republic, but that game still had major implications. Because Venezuela lost that game — despite a spirited ninth-inning charge — it finished as the runner-up of Pool D, which means a meeting against Japan and World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto awaits. Can Venezuela’s high-powered offense knock off the reigning champs? It certainly has a chance, even though the country has only advanced to the semifinals once before.
Player to Watch: Luis Arraez
On a team featuring Ronald Acuña Jr., William and Willson Contreras and 2025 All-Star Maikel Garcia, it’s hard to imagine another player rising to the top. But that’s what Arraez has done this tournament — not only with his bat-to-ball skills but also surprisingly with his power. He leads all players in the WBC with six extra-base hits after starting the tournament 7-for-14 with two home runs, four doubles and nine RBI.
X-factor: Jackson Chourio
After getting hit in the hand by a pitch during an exhibition, Chourio missed Venezuela’s first two games. He hasn’t gotten his bat going in the two games since returning, but the precocious Brewers outfielder — who just turned 22 on Wednesday — has been a 20-20 hitter each of his first two big-league seasons and could get going at any point. If he does, that could be the difference.
3. Japan (4-0, Pool C Winners)
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Japan went undefeated through pool play, as expected. But the three-time champs didn’t exactly bulldoze their way to this point, eking out an 8-6 win against Korea in the late innings and barely surviving a 4-3 victory against Australia. Still, Samurai Japan ranks in the top three in both OPS and ERA in this WBC — showcasing the talent both in the lineup and pitching staff — and remains the king of international competition until proven otherwise.
Player to Watch: Shohei Ohtani
There won’t be an Ohtani vs. Trout teammate-on-teammate matchup to end this WBC. Ohtani is only hitting during this competition, and boy, has he. The four-time MVP put on a show in the Tokyo Dome, starting the tournament 5-for-9 with two homers and a double, and he tends to rise to these sorts of occasions.
X-factor: Masataka Yoshida
On a team with Ohtani, Seiya Suzuki, Munetaka Murakami, Kazuma Okamoto and NPB Central League MVP Teruaki Sato, who leads the group so far in hits? That would be Yoshida, who’s 6-for-12 with two home runs. Yoshida was a below league-average hitter last year for the Red Sox, but he excelled in the 2023 WBC, and he’s doing so again — an encouraging sign for both Boston and Japan’s unrelenting lineup.
2. Dominican Republic (Pool D Winners, 4-0)
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There’s a strong argument to be made that Team D.R. should be the favorites. Three years ago, it was a massive disappointment when a loaded Dominican roster somehow failed to advance out of pool play, but this group looks more motivated and cohesive, and the 4-0 record so far is evidence. The Dominican players seem to be having a blast — quite literally. Eight different players in the lineup have already homered (often epically), and five have gone deep multiple times. The offense leads all teams in the WBC in runs, home runs and every slash-line category. When this lineup is clicking, there isn’t one better, and it’s hard to envision Korea’s pitchers holding it down. This group has a real shot to win the tournament for the first time since 2013.
Player to Watch: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? Juan Soto? Fernando Tatis?
I mean, take your pick here. They’re all destroying the baseball. The trio of superstars have combined to hit .425 with six home runs. Against Venezuela in the Dominican Republic’s toughest test so far, Soto started the scoring with a homer in the first. Kete Marte and Guerrero followed with homers in the third. Tatis broke the game open with a three-run shot in the fourth. There’s nowhere for opposing pitchers to breathe.
X-factor: Junior Caminero
On a team full of Dominican luminaries, this feels like the official arrival of Caminero as one of the dudes. The 22-year-old’s earth-shattering home runs — and electric reactions — aren’t to be missed. The two he has launched this tournament both left his bat at more than 111 mph and traveled more than 400 feet. He seems built for this spotlight.
1. USA (3-1, Pool B Runners-Up)
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Considering the U.S. nearly didn’t even make it to the final round of eight, it’s fair to wonder if this dream team of All-Stars, MVPs and Cy Young Award winners is still worthy of the top spot. Even as it stormed its way through the first three games of the tournament, there were some surprising stretches of ineffectiveness for both the juggernaut offense and the electric arms on the most gifted baseball roster ever assembled. Still, this roster is just too talented to put anywhere else. If the U.S. can rebound from here and finish the job — as it was built to do — the stunning pool-play loss to Italy and the near exit that followed will just be a footnote in its WBC story.
Player to Watch: Aaron Judge
For all the boppers on this roster, the three-time MVP is the captain for a reason. Two of Judge’s four hits this tournament have left the yard, including a two-run shot that started the scoring in a crucial victory against Mexico, and his arm in right field has made a difference. He could have been the hero against Italy, too, but he struck out to end the game while representing the tying run. Now, how will he rally the troops and respond?
X-factor: Brice Turang
On a team filled with All-Stars and more decorated hitters, Turang has been a standout. The 2024 National League Platinum Glove Award winner is primarily on the roster for his defense, but he leads the team with four doubles and has an OPS over 1.000 in the tournament. Another name to watch is Twins starter Joe Ryan, who isn’t on the roster yet but is expected to join Team USA after the quarterfinal and would be lined up to make his WBC debut in the championship game.
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