NEW YORK — The roller-coaster ride that was Game 5 was the only way this iconic World Series between two baseball titans should end. After the Yankees took the lead early on an Aaron Judge home run and kept piling on for a five-run advantage, New York got in its own way with too many defensive mistakes and allowed the Dodgers to scratch and claw their way back into the game.
After the Yankees retook the lead late, the Dodgers rallied again and claimed their eighth World Series title in franchise history with a wild 7-6 win Wednesday night in the Bronx.
Here are our top takeaways from MLB’s 2024 finale.
1. After Flaherty falters early, even a well-rested Dodgers bullpen had to get creative late
The Dodgers essentially punted the end of Game 4, a matchup that was within a run after five innings, choosing to save the bullpen pieces they trust the most to be ready behind Jack Flaherty in Game 5.
One night later, in a matchup that was within a run after six innings, they had used all of those fresh high-leverage arms.
The plan went awry when they had to start deploying them in the second inning. What unfolded was far from the blueprint, as Flaherty recorded just four outs while allowing four hits, four runs and a walk. He made it just one time through the order before being pulled. It was basically a replica of the previous series for Flaherty, who looked like a completely different guy on extra rest in the opening game of the NLCS and World Series (1.46 ERA, 12 K, 3 BB between the two starts) than on regular rest the second time against NLCS and World Series opponents in Game 5s (24.92 ERA, 5 BB, 1 K).
In this one, with the World Series up for grabs, the Dodgers couldn’t afford to let him wear it the way they did last series, so Anthony Banda entered in the second. The parade of arms kept the Dodgers within striking distance, buying enough time for the game-tying five-run explosion that arrived behind a calamitous medley of Yankees miscues in the fifth.
But a predicament would unfold, with the Dodgers having deployed all their top relievers. After Blake Treinen threw a clean seventh, they had no fresh arms left. Walker Buehler, who had already trotted out to the bullpen, began warming. Then it was Daniel Hudson, who threw 20 pitches in Game 4, one of which had left the yard. Every other available option for the Dodgers had thrown more than 40 pitches the night before.
Roberts decided to keep Treinen in for the eighth. Disaster appeared close when Aaron Judge delivered a one-out double. Exhaustion seemed to be setting in when Jazz Chisholm Jr. drew a walk. But Treinen buckled down, retiring the next two hitters. He recorded seven outs in the performance, marking the first time in more than six years that he had gone more than two innings. With the bullpen mostly emptied, Dave Roberts turned to Buehler in the ninth. And the October star delivered the team a championship. — Rowan Kavner
2. Cole’s dominance turned into disaster
Gerrit Cole was untouchable the first four innings against L.A., boasting a sharper fastball and better command of his secondary pitches than he did in Game 1. At the same time, the Yankees offense gave him five runs of support, and he was pitching efficiently, too. The veteran right-hander hadn’t allowed a hit through the first 14 batters he faced. Things were going better than the Yankees could have hoped … until the nightmare that was the fifth inning.
The Yankees committed three game-altering mistakes on defense in the fifth, but after Judge dropped a routine fly ball and Anthony Volpe made a fielding error at short, no mental gaffe was worse than Cole’s failure to cover first base on a Mookie Betts ground ball. All Cole had to do was sprint to first base so that Anthony Rizzo could toss him the ball, and the Yankees would’ve escaped a no-out, bases-loaded jam. But Cole just pointed to Rizzo, expecting the first baseman to make the unassisted out. The Dodgers came all the way back from their 5-0 deficit to tie the game in the fifth following Cole’s inning of horrors. All five runs were unearned.
So it took a lot of guts and grit for Cole to come back out for the sixth and the seventh to completely empty the tank against the Dodgers. He pitched a clean sixth inning, and then retired Shohei Ohtani and Betts in the seventh before walking Freddie Freeman for his final batter. Cole’s season-high 108-pitch outing would’ve been so much sweeter without his one mistake of failing to cover first. The crowd still gave him a standing ovation as he walked off the mound in the seventh. He responded with a small salute. — Deesha Thosar
3. Superteam Dodgers can also win small
A catastrophic inning gave the Dodgers’ offense a chance. The Yankees had struggled with the little things all series. The Dodgers, as their go-ahead inning demonstrated late, had not.
Yankees relievers had gotten the better of the Dodger offense all series, forcing them to chase more than usual and into uncharacteristic at-bats. That changed in the eighth inning of Game 5, when the Dodgers put the first three runners on against Tommy Kahnle with two walks and a single. More productive at-bats put them ahead when the Yankees turned to Luke Weaver. Gavin Lux hit a sac fly. Shohei Ohtani reached on a catcher’s interference. Mookie Betts delivered another sac fly, and the Dodgers had their first lead of the night, moving them six outs away. — Kavner
4. Judge’s breakout too little, too late
Facing the same pressure as Game 4 to get out to an early lead, Judge finally provided the big swing the Yankees were waiting for from their captain with a huge two-run home run in the first inning — on the first pitch — against Jack Flaherty. It was Judge’s third home run of this postseason, and his first since Game 3 of the ALCS in Cleveland. The entire Yankees dugout seemed to relax after Judge’s first World Series home run, because that’s who this team is at its heart. When Judge is cashing in, the rest of the supporting cast typically follows his lead.
While Judge bolstered his postseason numbers in Games 4 and 5 of the World Series, his help arrived too late to save the Yankees’ season. The way that this year’s team was built, the Yankees needed Judge to produce throughout the Series if they’re going to win the franchise’s first title since 2009. Instead, his 1-for-12, seven-strikeout output through the first three games of the Fall Classic put the Yankees in a hole they couldn’t climb out of. The narrative of his postseason struggles, and how it seems to take Judge at least a dozen at-bats to warm up, will follow him into his next October. — Thosar
Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
NEW YORK — The Yankees finally broke through for their first win of the World Series in front of a rocking Bronx crowd and, in doing so, reminded everyone that they’re not going down without a fight. Whether it was the pressure of competing in an elimination game and playing with urgency, or seeing multiple relief arms and capitalizing on the Dodgers‘ bullpen game, the Yankees’ 11-4 win on Tuesday night was just what they needed to get their confidence back in the Fall Classic.
They are, after all, the best team in the American League for a reason.
Here are our four biggest takeaways from Game 4 in the Bronx.
It was sweet, sweet redemption for Anthony Volpe. One inning after he didn’t score from second base on an Austin Wells double, the opportunity to atone for his mistake was his to take when the Yankees, trailing 2-1, loaded the bases for him in the third. The Yankees were finding ways to get on base, but they still needed that big hit, and it appeared unlikely that they would actually capitalize after Anthony Rizzo popped out with the bases juiced for the second out. But it was also pretty clear that Daniel Hudson, who was the second man out of the bullpen in the Dodgers’ bullpen game, didn’t have it.
Volpe pounced on the first pitch Hudson offered him, an 89 mph slider that nicked the bottom of the zone before the Yankees shortstop barreled it to left field. Fans couldn’t believe it as the ball kept sailing over left fielder Teoscar Hernández’s head and into the seats. Only when it safely landed beyond the left-field wall did an anxious and restless home crowd of 49,354 finally erupt for the first time in this World Series.
Volpe’s grand slam gave the Yankees a lead it wouldn’t relinquish. The first home run of his postseason career was just his second overall since Aug. 4. — Deesha Thosar
No, that wasn’t a replay. Freddie Freeman had no extra-base hits, just one run scored and one RBI in the first two rounds of the postseason. He was too hobbled from his ankle sprain to play in the Dodgers’ deciding Game 6 of the NLCS, and there were questions whether his valiant effort to be in the lineup — despite his obvious pain, and despite how much it seemed to be a galvanizing force for his teammates, who admired the daily efforts it took for him to get on the field — was doing more harm than good.
The Yankees haven’t seen that version of the All-Star first baseman. A week off transformed Freeman from a singles hitter into a slugging juggernaut. His teammates thought he had started to find his stroke again watching him take batting practice a couple of days before the start of the World Series, watching him line baseballs over shortstop the way he typically does when he’s swinging right.
The Yankees didn’t get that version of Freeman, either. Instead, they’ve seen the one who’s on a historic postseason home run pace. Freeman hit the first walk-off grand slam in World Series history in Game 1, added a solo shot in Game 2, quieted the opposing crowd at Yankee Stadium in the first inning of Game 3 with a two-run shot, then did so again in Game 4. In the process, Freeman — who also homered in the final two games of the Braves‘ 2021 title run — has set a major-league record by hitting a home run in six straight World Series games.
He has now homered in four straight games to start this World Series. At the time of his Game 4 blast, Freeman had knocked in more runs this series than the entire Yankees team. His 10 RBIs are the most by a Dodgers player in a World Series. This time, though, it wasn’t the dagger that it was in Game 3, as the Yankees’ lineup battled back. — Rowan Kavner
3. With a little help from Judge’s friends
It was hard to imagine the Yankees getting a single win in this World Series without one of two things happening: Either Aaron Judge wakes up, or the guys that he’s carried all year finally give him some of that support back. It was mostly the latter Tuesday, as the bottom of the Yankees order finally put together quality at-bats for the first time in this Series. Austin Wells, one of the Yankees’ best hitters in July and August and who played his way into the American League Rookie of the Year conversation, cranked a solo shot to right field in the sixth inning for a much-needed insurance run. That homer came after an excellent at-bat in the second inning, when he skied a double off the padding in center field.
No lead is safe with the Dodgers in the other dugout, as the Yankees learned the hard way in Game 1. That might explain New York’s five-run outburst in the eighth inning, with Volpe and Wells reaching safely again to set the table for a Gleyber Torres three-run home run. Amazingly, the Yankees scored their first 10 runs of this game without Juan Soto or Judge being prominently involved. — Thosar
4. Dodgers’ bullpen game goes south quickly
Tuesday was the fourth bullpen game of the postseason for the Dodgers. The first, in an elimination Game 4 in the NLDS, was a clinic, with eight different pitchers combining to hold the Padres scoreless in an 8-0 shutout that came in the midst of a record-tying 33 consecutive scoreless innings for the Dodgers’ pitching staff.
The last three haven’t gone so smoothly, including the first of the World Series on Tuesday in the Bronx. With four chances to win one game, manager Dave Roberts decided against deploying all of his best high-leverage pieces the way he needed to in that first do-or-die matchup in San Diego. It looked a little more like Game 2 of the NLCS, when, after the Mets tagged Landon Knack for five runs, the Dodgers essentially punted. Roberts didn’t want to tire his best arms out in a long series, and he didn’t want the Mets to get another look at those arms in a minus situation. The move ultimately paid off.
It was a similar situation Tuesday against the Yankees. While Roberts said everyone was available, it was clear he would need some length from rookies Ben Casparius and Knack and would decide who to use based on the game situation from there. “Every guy will be with a cost going forward,” Roberts said. Michael Kopech had pitched in each of the first three games. Blake Treinen, Anthony Banda, Alex Vesia and Brusdar Graterol had pitched in two apiece. None of them saw the field after Volpe’s grand slam off Daniel Hudson put the Yankees in the driver’s seat.
Roberts has pushed a lot of the right buttons so far this October, so we’ll see if saving his best guys for Game 5 and beyond was the right call again. — Rowan Kavner
Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
NEW YORK — From lifeless Yankees at-bats to more suffocating dominance from the Dodgers rotation and Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles has cruised to a 3-0 World Series lead.
The Dodgers have backed the Yankees into the tightest and narrowest of uncomfortable corners, and are only 27 outs away from sweeping the American League’s top team to win a championship.
Here are our top four takeaways from the Dodgers’ 4-2 win over the Yankees in Game 3 on Monday night in the Bronx.
Freddie Freeman, the hobbled first baseman who conjured memories of Kirk Gibson when he ended Game 1 in heroic fashion with a walk-off grand slam, then helped ensure the Dodgers took Game 2 with a solo shot, immediately took the life out of a crowd of 49,368 fans who were buzzing before the Yankees’ first home game in nearly two weeks by going deep again.
It was not only Freeman’s third straight game with a homer to begin the 2024 World Series, it was also his fifth straight World Series game with a home run dating back to the Braves’ championship run in 2021. He joined George Springer as the only players in MLB history to accomplish the latter feat.
The early blast, three batters into the night, not only stunned a stadium full of midnight navy blue and white but also allowed another Dodger dealing with physical limitations the chance to leisurely jog around the bases.
Shohei Ohtani, in his first game since suffering a subluxation of his left shoulder, did not look particularly comfortable. He wore a black harness on his left shoulder when he made the jog onto the field during player introductions, keeping his arm against his chest the whole time so as not to extend it. But in his first plate appearance of the night, the Yankees didn’t make him swing. A four-pitch walk gave him first base, where he continued to hold his left arm against his chest, making sure not to extend it. Freeman’s two-run blast ensured he would not need to sprint around the bases.
Through three games, Freeman has knocked in as many runs as the Yankees’ entire lineup. If you can name an MVP this early, there’s no doubt who would take home the honor. — Rowan Kavner
The buzz was back in the air after Nestor Cortes, making an appearance from the bullpen to face Ohtani, escaped a bases-loaded jam to end the third inning. After all, the Yankees were only trailing the Dodgers by three runs with a lot of game still left to play, and Aaron Judge was due up (and due) to atone for his disappointing World Series performance. After Judge wasted yet another opportunity by flying out to left, Stanton got the Yankees their first hit of the night with a double. Finally, things were cooking.
Anthony Volpe followed with what’s become a rare, clutch single to left that should have scored a run. The only problem was, one of the slowest players in the major leagues was the guy sauntering from second to home. As Teoscar Hernandez picked up the ball in left field, Stanton rounded third base in slow motion — like he was running underwater — and was thrown out by a perfect throw. The Yankees didn’t have a single at-bat with a runner on third the entire game.
Stanton’s complete absence of anything resembling speed after multiple lower-half injuries hurt the Yankees in the regular season. But it was a little surprising to learn that Stanton doesn’t even have another gear of speed for the World Series, especially given how he’s been able to lock in at the plate this postseason. The difference in athleticism between the Dodgers and Yankees is one reason among many that New York has found itself trying and failing to catch up with Los Angeles. — Deesha Thosar
3. Walker Buehler further cements his big-game rep
The second inning of Game 3 of the NLDS looked rough in the box score for Buehler, who was charged with six runs while being let down by his defense. Since then, he’s been flawless.
Buehler finished that game with three scoreless innings — vital work, considering the Dodgers would be utilizing a bullpen game the following day — then tossed four scoreless innings in Game 3 of the NLCS, getting more swings and misses than he had in any game since the 2021 season. On Monday, he added five more spotless frames to his ledger. The Yankees didn’t have a hit off him until a Stanton double in the fourth inning. Stanton was then thrown out by Hernández while trying to score from second on a single to left field. That extinguished the Yankees’ biggest threat against Buehler, who has now fired 12 straight scoreless innings.
In his three career World Series starts, Buehler has allowed just one run and struck out 22 in 18 innings.
After a rocky regular season in which he struggled to miss bats and exhibited shaky command coming off a second Tommy John surgery, he has again found another level in October and earned his reputation as a big-game pitcher. — Kavner
Schmidt only being able to last 2.2 innings isn’t what sunk the Yankees in Game 3 (we can credit their lack of offense for that), but it certainly didn’t help. When the 1996 Yankees fell behind 0-2 to the Atlanta Braves in the World Series, David Cone’s incredible Game 3 start (six innings of one-run ball) is what galvanized the club to its championship comeback. The tone is always set by dominant pitching, and in that department, Schmidt picked a bad day to lose his command.
The relentless Dodgers lineup that doesn’t expand the zone forced Schmidt to work up his pitch count, resulting in his shortest start since August … of 2023. Los Angeles never allowed Schmidt to settle in, because its third batter of the night parked a two-run shot off of him. Schmidt’s early exit forced Yankees manager Aaron Boone to go to his bullpen, and to its credit, New York’s relievers wiggled out of catastrophic damage multiple times. It was the Yankees lineup that, once again, fell flat. — Thosar
Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers stormed ahead to a 2-0 World Series lead after winning the first two games at home. The Yankees‘ offense was all but shut down by Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 2, which also featured an injury scare for Shohei Ohtani after he was caught stealing second base in the seventh inning.
Here are our top four takeaways from the Dodgers’ 4-2 win Saturday.
1. Aaron Judge’s disappearing act
It’s extremely difficult to believe the Yankees will force this World Series to go the distance, much less win, without the MVP version of Judge. For the second straight day, the Dodgers’ starting pitcher completely neutralized Judge’s bat. Game 1 starter Jack Flaherty and Game 2 starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto combined to strike out Judge five times in six at-bats and didn’t allow him to reach base. Yamamoto especially looked confident facing the player who recorded the highest OPS (1.159) in baseball in the regular season.
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Judge is now 1 for 9 with six strikeouts in the Fall Classic. He’s 6-for-40 in this postseason with 19 strikeouts to accompany just two home runs and six RBIs. Within a span of a few weeks, he’s gone from being the best hitter in the universe to waving at offspeed pitches like he’s an automatic out.
The Yankees have had a hard time publicly admitting that Judge is missing pitches in the postseason that he would normally get to. Whether it’s the long layoff before the playoffs began or the break between the ALCS and the World Series, it seems entirely plausible that the lack of everyday at-bats and games have messed up Judge’s timing. That could be why he finally broke out in Game 3 of the ALCS against the Guardians with a game-tying two-run home run off top closer Emmanuel Clase. If he just needs time to warm up, then he could have a huge week ahead of him when the Series goes to the Bronx on Monday. With a championship on the line, the Yankees can only hope that’s the case. — Deesha Thosar
Turns out Edman’s MVP performance in the Dodgers’ NLCS against the Mets wasn’t a fluke. Los Angeles’ Swiss-army knife has picked up right where he left off, going 4-for-8 with two runs scored and an RBI in the World Series so far. His latest trick was a solo shot to left field off Carlos Rodón in the second inning to put the Dodgers on the board.
Edman hadn’t even played this season when Andrew Friedman traded for him this summer. The Dodgers needed an infielder at the time, knowing that they didn’t want to play Mookie Betts at shortstop anymore, while factoring in that Gavin Lux and Kiké Hernandez are not everyday players. There was real risk in making him the lone position-player addition at the deadline. Nobody really knew how Edman would play after his offseason wrist surgery, which included a setback in spring training. While his performance in August and September was serviceable, Edman has been huge for the Dodgers in October.
Not only is he showing up at the plate, but the former Gold Glover has seamlessly shifted between shortstop and center field from game to game. While his name won’t often come up on a team full of superstars, he’s been a huge coup for the Dodgers — and he could be an enormous factor in them winning the whole thing. — Thosar
3. The Carlos Rodón roller-coaster continues
Giventhe southpaw’s turbulence this postseason, the Yankees had to know there was a fat chance that Rodón would unravel the way he did on Saturday. Aaron Boone and the Yankees’ decision-makers are just as responsible for this poor outing as the left-hander himself is. Rodón took the mound for Game 2 having surrendered seven earned runs in his previous three playoff starts (14.1 innings) this October. He spiraled against the Royals in the ALDS, then course-corrected in his first outing of the ALCS, only to struggle again in the clincher versus Cleveland.
On Saturday, he surrendered home runs to Edman, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernández by the third inning and was pulled in the fourth.
The up-and-down nature of Rodón’s postseason spelled trouble the moment New York lost Game 1 to Los Angeles. More than anything, the Yankees needed a reliable starter who would give them the best chance to return to the Bronx with a series split. That made right-hander Clarke Schmidt the superior option for Game 2, not only because he has been more consistent on the road than Rodón, who pitches better at home, but also because the Dodgers hit lefties so well. Why take that chance when the Yankees had to get even?
Beyond the team’s culpability, Rodón being unable to deliver on the sport’s biggest stage is a huge blow to the Yankees. Nights like Saturday were precisely why they signed him to a six-year, $162 million deal before the 2023 season. That he stayed healthy all year, ate up innings and delivered quality starts in half of his 32 outings when ace Gerrit Cole missed the first two-plus months of the season with an elbow injury was invaluable. His instability since then made him a questionable choice to start Saturday in the first place, and it now has the Yankees in a potentially insurmountable 0-2 hole. — Thosar
4. A potentially costly loss in victory
A commanding 2-0 lead in the series did not come without a potentially significant cost, as an already injury-ravaged Dodgers roster might have taken its biggest hit.
Manager Dave Roberts said Ohtani suffered a subluxation of his left shoulder when he was caught stealing in the seventh inning. Roberts was encouraged by the initial strength and range of motion tests and said he’s “expecting him to be in the lineup,” but he won’t know more until scans are completed.
“Obviously when you get any one of your players that goes down, it’s concerning,” Roberts said. “But after kind of the range of motion, the strength test, I feel much better about it.”
Dodgers players after the game did not seem to know the severity of the injury. Ohtani left the stadium immediately after the game and was not available to provide an update. Based on initial testing, though, Roberts believes Ohtani will be available to play as the series moves to New York.
“I’m expecting him to be there,” Roberts said.
Ohtani had been caught stealing just four times while recording 59 stolen bases during the regular season, but he has been caught stealing on both of his attempts this postseason. — Rowan Kavner
Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto were the three best hitters in baseball this year. Mookie Betts, an MVP front-runner before being beset by injury, has found his superstar swing in the postseason.
The Dodgers‘ pitching staff already posted a record-tying 33 innings without allowing a run this October. The Yankees have surrendered three runs or fewer in five of their past seven games.
These are the two best teams in baseball, and they represent a historical and heavyweight matchup in the Fall Classic. So, who’s going to win, and how?
Thosar: Any comparison between these two teams is splitting hairs, but I’ll give the edge to the Yankees because Giancarlo Stanton is back to turning into Babe Ruth in the postseason. Stanton’s clutch power combined with Juan Soto’s confidence at the plate in high-pressure situations and Aaron Judge’s threat to reach base in every plate appearance makes the Yankees a force that is difficult to overcome for any pitching staff, let alone Los Angeles’ questionable arms.
The Yankees also have better depth in their lineup right now than they did for parts of the regular season, thanks to Gleyber Torres‘ excellent leadoff production (he and Judge both have seven walks this postseason) and Anthony Volpe taking better at-bats. On the flip side, the Dodgers overall have more depth in their lineup, with the bottom of the order being tough to navigate if guys like Max Muncy, Will Smith and Kiké Hernández are routinely coming through. But I still think the Yankees’ top hitters give them the ever-so-slight advantage here.
Kavner: The Dodgers. It doesn’t get better than the 1-2 punch of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton is blasting home runs seemingly every day this October, but the depth of the Dodgers’ lineup gives L.A. the edge as a whole. Kiké Hernández continues to find a new level this time of year, Tommy Edman just had more hits and RBIs than any player in the LCS, Max Muncy recently set a single-season postseason record by reaching base in 12 straight plate appearances, and the Dodgers scored an NLCS record 46 runs despite Teoscar Hernández going hitless in the first five games, Will Smith hitting .182 in the series and Freddie Freeman missing two of the last three games.
I haven’t even mentioned Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, who combined for 17 hits — including eight extra-base hits — and 15 runs in the NLCS. The Dodgers had the highest OPS in MLB this season, and if there were any questions about which lineup was the scariest in the postseason field, they answered it this October. Most importantly, they’re batting .311 with runners in scoring position in the playoffs; the Yankees are hitting .181 in those situations.
2. Who has better pitching?
Kavner: The Yankees. Their starting pitching advantage mitigates any edge the Dodgers hold in the bullpen. One team will need to resort to at least one bullpen game. The other team’s fourth starter is an American League Rookie of the Year candidate. The Yankees will trot out last year’s Cy Young Award winner in Game 1. The Dodgers will turn to Jack Flaherty, who is coming off an outing in which he dealt with diminished velocity — which was a problem late in the year as well — and surrendered eight runs in three innings. Despite some encouraging signs from Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was at his best earlier this year in the Bronx, the Yankees will arguably hold the upper hand in every starting pitching matchup this series.
The Dodgers have managed to get by despite up-and-down performances from each of their three starting pitchers — the way Yamamoto and Walker Buehler missed bats their last time out was especially encouraging — mostly because of a medley of relievers who at one point helped the club tie a postseason record with 33 consecutive scoreless innings. But the Dodgers’ scarcity of arms have forced manager Dave Roberts to make tough decisions, including punting on games when they get behind so as not to burn the high-leverage relievers they know they’ll need over the course of a long series. That’s a tough tightrope to walk, even for a team that can put up runs the way the Dodgers can. At some point in this series, they will likely need a lengthy performance from one of their starters — like the one Flaherty was able to deliver in Game 1 of the NLCS — to be the last team standing.
Thosar: The Yankees. Gerrit Cole is the best pitcher in the World Series, and the rotation arms behind him have been more encouraging than I expected going into the postseason. Carlos Rodón showed enormous growth between playoff starts, being able to contain his emotions and focus on just dealing, which led to solid results. Now, with Nestor Cortes likely coming back from injury, that gives the Yankees another left-handed weapon, most likely from the bullpen.
But out of all the factors here, I think what gives the Yankees the pitching advantage is simply that they do not have to rely on a bullpen game or two to get through a long series. There is something to be said about having big-name starters who can pitch deep into their outings, especially in the playoffs. And Yoshinobu Yamamoto is still working his way back up from injury, Jack Flaherty experienced a drop in velocity his last time out, and Walker Buehler can be turbulent depending on the day. The Dodgers’ bullpen was overused in the NLCS against the Mets. I think that might come back to haunt them.
3. Which manager is under more pressure to win this title?
Thosar: They’re both under pressure to win, but I think Aaron Boone is facing more of a burden since the Yankees haven’t won a World Series under his management, and not since 2009 overall. Consequently, this postseason has actually featured Boone’s best decision-making over his seven trips to the playoffs as Yankees skipper.
Boone, too, seemed to understand how much pressure he was facing to win a title this year because he made sure to spend ample time in spring training with former Yankees manager Joe Torre, who won the World Series four times with the Bronx Bombers. Boone said this week that he leaned on Torre a lot this year, and he has tried to emulate some of Torre’s demeanor in the dugout, as well as better understand his managing tactics.
Kavner: I lean Aaron Boone here, although there are a lot of parallels between the two beyond the fact that Boone and Dave Roberts both grew up in Southern California, concurrently attended rival colleges in USC and UCLA, respectively, and had defining moments as players in the postseason. They both have also been criticized for their team’s shortcomings in postseasons past, and both have done a tremendous job to quiet those critics this October.
In different circumstances, I might go with Roberts. A third straight NLDS knockout would have raised the alarms. But considering the job he did piecing together a beleaguered pitching staff to get to this point — seemingly pushing all the right buttons in the process — and how vital it is for the Yankees to strike now while they have Juan Soto, I think the answer is Boone.
4. Which team has a greater need for a big series from their 2024 MVP: the Dodgers with Shohei Ohtani or the Yankees with Aaron Judge?
Kavner: TheYankees. I mentioned that I don’t think their lineup is as deep, which puts more pressure on Judge to perform. He had some big moments in the ALCS, including homers in Games 2 and 3, but I don’t think the Yankees can survive without more production from the likely runaway AL MVP against a Dodgers team with far more offensive firepower than anything New York has seen thus far.
Thosar: It’s hard to imagine either of these teams winning the championship without big performances from their respective MVPs. But the way the Yankees have been winning this postseason, even when Judge wasn’t putting up the insane numbers we’ve been used to seeing from him, makes me think the Dodgers have a greater need for Ohtani to show up big in the World Series. The Japanese phenom ended the narrative that he could only hit with men on base when he launched a leadoff home run in Game 4 of the NLCS, and he’s even more dangerous with runners in scoring position.
When Ohtani is at his best, the Dodgers are seemingly always going to be on base doing their silly arm-wave thing, and I think that’s their recipe for success against the Yankees. A drop-off in production from Ohtani will put Los Angeles in a much tighter spot to win.
5. Who’s going to win the World Series? Who’ll be MVP?
Thosar: The Yankees, and Juan Soto. It’s not hard to imagine the World Series ending with Soto carrying the Yankees to a title in his first, and potentially only, season in New York. Remember that dramatic, theatrical seven-pitch at-bat he had against the Guardians‘ Hunter Gaddis in Game 5 of the ALCS that sent the Yankees to the Fall Classic? I’m expecting Soto to replicate that confidence and plate approach every single time he’s batting in the World Series. When the stakes are highest, Soto’s determination only seems to go up, too.
Kavner: I’ll take the Dodgers. There’s always the potential their starting pitching dooms them, but it hasn’t happened yet. I think Roberts has done a terrific job deploying his relievers at the right time and keeping his most trusted leverage arms as rested as possible, given the unfavorable circumstances. If they can get at least one lengthy starting pitching performance, that might be enough considering the way their offense is overwhelming opponents right now. They’re hitting in the clutch in a way they hadn’t in recent Octobers, and there seems to be a belief with this group that differs from previous iterations.
Ohtani went to the Dodgers for this opportunity, and all year he has delivered memorable performances in the biggest moments. He hit a walk-off grand slam to get to 40/40, had arguably the greatest single-game performance ever to get to 50/50, and now has hits in 18 of his past 23 at-bats with runners in scoring position. I think he leaves us with something special as World Series MVP, conjuring memories of his WBC performance (even if it’s only with the bat this time).
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Bonus: Which stadium offers more of a home-field advantage?
Kavner: This one’s tough for me to answer, having not been to Yankee Stadium before, but it’s worth noting how many veteran Dodgers players have made it a point to reference the atmosphere of the stadium on this run in particular. Sure, there was an embarrassing night in the Padres series. But the players can feel the desire of the fans, who weren’t able to celebrate the 2020 championship with a parade. “If there’s something that this crowd is, it’s hungry,” Kiké Hernández said.
During the deciding Game 5 of the NLDS, Max Muncy said he thought the home crowd matched or exceeded the intensity at Petco Park, which is saying something. “We kept coming back into the dugout saying, ‘Hey, look at these guys out there,” Muncy said. “The fans were going nuts. The stadium was shaking.” The Dodgers routinely lead the majors in attendance, this year included. With a capacity to hold 56,000, multiple opposing players have noted how Dodger Stadium feels like the fans are on top of you. I do think it makes a difference that the Dodgers get an extra game at home, where they were 52-29 this year.
Thosar: Yankee Stadium. The Bronx crowd’s raucous energy will be unmatched and could be quite intimidating for some Dodgers pitchers. Funnily enough, Judge and Stanton are both from California and will have a ton of family at Chavez Ravine in the World Series, so I think they’ll feel extra comfortable there and primed to deliver in front of their loved ones.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
It’s been 11 years since the top seeds in each league met in the World Series. It’s arguably been decades since the Fall Classic featured this much star power.
While the perennial All-Stars will attract most of the headlines, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers each feature deep rosters that will be needed to triumph over the other.
Taking both the regular season and this postseason into account, FOX Sports MLB experts Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar ranked the top 24 players competing in the 2024 World Series.
Unable to pitch this season, baseball’s most unique talent found another way to make history with 54 homers and 59 stolen bases. Ohtani ended the regular season with 12 hits in his last 14 at-bats with runners in scoring position, then carried that clutch production into his first career postseason, where he is 6-for-9 in those spots. He had more hits (eight) and walks (nine) than strikeouts (seven) in the NLCS and has a .934 OPS overall this October. He joined the Dodgers for the chance to win championships. Now, MLB’s grandest stage beckons. — Kavner
The top three on this list came so close in our voting that it goes to show how tight these top offenses will be in this showdown. What makes this one interesting is that Soto actually didn’t play against the Dodgers this year; he was sidelined with left forearm inflammation when they came to the Bronx in June. Soto’s absence was sorely missed — the Dodgers outscored the Yankees 17-10 in the three-game series — but his 203 wRC+ this postseason indicates he’ll make up for it in the Fall Classic. — Thosar
With the narrative of his playoff slump behind him, Judge came up big in the ALCS with a game-tying home run in Game 4, and it looks like he’s just getting started. Judge, born in Linden, California will have a ton of family, including his parents, coming to the World Series in Los Angeles. The presumptive AL MVP will want to show off at what he has described as one of his favorite places to play — after New York, that is. — Thosar
Remember when we were talking about Betts’ postseason struggles? That feels like a thing of the past now for the former MVP, whose hundreds of swings per day seem to have gotten him right. He was 3-for-44 over his previous 12 postseason games when he broke out with a homer and two hits in Game 3 of the NLDS. Now, he is hitting .342 with four homers and a 1.182 OPS over his past nine playoff games. Most importantly, he is consistently making opponents pay any time they pitch around Ohtani. There’s nowhere for pitchers to hide. — Kavner
Completing the Yankees’ problematic trifecta, Stanton turns into a different player when October rolls around because, in his words, he “wants a ring” and he isn’t going to be satisfied until he gets it. Looking at the ALCS MVP trophy and declaring that it doesn’t mean anything to him, because he wants the next one, is the kind of mentality that has carried the Yankees to the biggest stage in baseball. He homered in each of the final three games of the ALCS. Will he win the World Series MVP award next? — Thosar
The Yankees’ veteran right-hander is inarguably the best pitcher in the World Series, so it’s only right that he’s the first arm to show up in our player rankings, too. This will be Cole’s second time pitching in the Fall Classic, and his first time since Soto hit home runs off him in back-to-back World Series starts in 2019. Good thing for Cole that the generational slugger and the reigning Cy Young winner are on the same team now. — Thosar
He’d probably find his way higher than seventh on this list under normal circumstances. When Freeman sprained his ankle on Sept. 26, doctors told him it was probably a 4-6 week injury. Nine days later, he was in the Dodgers’ lineup for Game 1 of the NLDS. He gritted through the pain, missing only one game of the series and somehow posting a .353 batting average through his first five games of October. But his production halted in the NLCS, and he missed two of the final three games of the series. Is a week of rest enough to get him back to form? — Kavner
Hernández built a penchant for coming through in the biggest moments in his first season in Los Angeles, and that was never more apparent than in the NLDS, when his grand slam in Game 3 turned what should have been a rout into a nail-biter and his homer in a do-or-die Game 5 helped the Dodgers move forward. The NLCS, however, was a different story. His swing looked out of sorts while going hitless through his first five games of the series before he broke out with two hits in the Game 6 clincher. The Dodgers will have to hope that gets him going again. — Kavner
The latter arm of the Yankees’ 1-2 punch has looked much better in his outings since he managed to control his emotions on the mound after a ALDS Game 1 start that quickly spiraled out of his hands. Rodón said, back in June when the Yankees hosted the Dodgers, it crossed his mind that the meeting might be a World Series preview. He’s looking forward to facing Ohtani and going deep into his start for New York. — Thosar
How much confidence will June 7 in the Bronx give Yamamoto in the World Series? On that day, he featured his slider more than ever before and fired seven scoreless innings in his best start of his first season stateside. There was some thought, however, that the pitch might have also contributed to the shoulder strain that would sideline him soon after for nearly three months. He has not gone more than five innings since that outing, but even in short stints, he has proven this postseason to be effective. He picked the slider back up his last time out and struck out eight in 4.1 innings in Game 4 of the NLCS against the Mets. Can he replicate his success with the pitch against the Yankees again? — Kavner
At one point in the NLCS, Muncy set a new single-season postseason record reaching base 12 consecutive times up. His ability to work counts, draw walks and do damage when he gets something in the zone is maybe the best example of what makes this Dodgers’ lineup so dangerous, even beyond the MVPs at the top. After an oblique and rib issue eliminated three months of his season, he picked up where he left off prior to the injury and finished the season with an .852 OPS. Muncy led all players in the LCS with 11 walks and also homered twice. — Kavner
After a difficult second half, the playoffs have been a similar struggle at the plate for the All-Star catcher. Smith is 6-for-38 with seven walks this postseason, but he has made his hits count. He homered in the first of back-to-back elimination games for the Dodgers in the NLDS and helped send his team to the World Series with another home run in Game 6 of the NLCS, giving him a little momentum moving forward and providing a reminder that he is still one of the best catchers in baseball. — Kavner
Will the Dodgers get the version of Flaherty who tossed seven scoreless innings against the Mets in Game 1 of the NLCS? Or will they get the version with diminished velocity who surrendered eight runs and didn’t strike anyone out his last time out in Game 5? The deadline addition has been a vital piece for the Dodgers’ ravaged rotation, but considering Flaherty’s importance to his team, the answer to that question could determine whether the Dodgers are celebrating their franchise’s eighth championship. — Kavner
Talk about an unsung hero. After a midseason benching for his lackadaisical play, including too many fielding errors to count at second base, Torres really turned his season around in September and hasn’t looked back. Hitting leadoff in front of Soto, Judge, and Stanton, Torres has a .832 OPS along with nine runs scored in nine playoff games this year. He’s served as a terrific tablesetter in October, when it has finally come together for the soon-to-be free agent. — Thosar
“When we got him, we said NLCS MVP or bust,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman quipped after the under-the-radar midseason addition led all players in the LCS with 11 hits and tied Corey Seager’s 2020 NLCS record with 11 RBI. When the Dodgers acquired Edman at the deadline, they couldn’t have imagined he’d be knocking in four runs in the clean-up spot in the NLCS clincher. But they did envision a versatile defender who could play multiple spots and lengthen the lineup, which is what he has done. His ability to play both center and shortstop has been crucial with Miguel Rojas banged up. The offensive production is a major bonus. — Kavner
The Yankees shortstop played in 160 games this year and his ability to post has been invaluable to the Yankees – even if his bat wasn’t where the club wanted it to be. Fortunately for New York, Volpe has looked much better at the plate in October, batting .429 (6-for-14) with a 1.029 OPS in his past four games. Even though this is all a small sample size within Volpe’s first-career trip to the playoffs, his ability to step up when the lights are brightest has mattered a great deal to this Yankees lineup. — Thosar
The Yankees reliever with a 6-foot-2, 183-pound wiry frame has suddenly become one of the most important players on the roster as the team gets ready for the NL’s most lethal offense. Having just jumped into closer duties in September and bringing four career saves into October, Weaver completed his first five appearances without a blemish. The Yankees are now betting the house on Weaver to deliver the most critical lockdown performances of the journeyman’s nine-year career to date. — Thosar
The Dodgers’ Mr. October is living up to the moniker again. A career .238 hitter known more for his ability to help defensively across the diamond, Hernández continues to transform into someone entirely different this time of year. After going deep twice this postseason, he now has 15 career playoff home runs — the same number as Aaron Judge and Babe Ruth. Albert Pujols, David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez are the only players in baseball history to log a higher career postseason OPS than Hernández (.889) in at least 75 playoff games. — Kavner
He’s no longer pumping fastballs in the high-90s the way he did prior to the shoulder surgery that wiped out his 2023 season, but he has demonstrated that his pitch mix can still be just as nasty a few ticks down. His sweeper-sinker pairing is one of the most effective in baseball — opponents struck out 37 times and registered just nine hits against his sweeper this year — and his ability to miss bats hasn’t been compromised in his return. He threw the final two innings to send the Dodgers to the World Series and has allowed just one run in eight innings this postseason. — Kavner
Chisholm was one of the most important trade pieces of the summer and his immediate hot start in the Bronx energized a Yankees team that was in need of a spark at the time. He remains a key glue guy in the clubhouse now, his youthful personality seemingly bringing out the best in other, quieter guys like Volpe. Chisholm has yet to find his signature moment in his third-career trip to the playoffs this year, but as one of the Yankees’ fastest runners, he’s still a threat every time he gets on base. — Thosar
As Aaron Boone noted after Rizzo returned from injury in the playoffs, the veteran first baseman has been performing even better than what the Yankees expected. Rizzo has made playing with fractured fingers look easy, and his experience on how to navigate the World Series — and win it, like he did for the 2016 Cubs — still makes him one of top players of any postseason roster this October. — Thosar
The right-hander from University Of South Carolina tends to fly under the radar on this star-studded Yankees roster, but that doesn’t make him any less consequential on a team needing these final four wins for a championship. Schmidt might even see his start day moved up to Game 2 in Los Angeles in place of Rodón, because the Dodgers hit lefties so well and Schmidt undoubtedly has the mental stamina to block out the pressures of pitching on the road. He isn’t talked about enough, but Schmidt’s many assets, including a 50% ground-ball rate this October, are essential in this race to the title. — Thosar
This was the most up-and-down season for Phillips since he joined the Dodgers in 2021 and became one of MLB’s most reliable relievers. After logging a 2.73 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in the first half, he had a 4.68 ERA and 1.32 WHIP after the break. However, Phillips ended the regular season with just one run allowed in his final six appearances and has carried that momentum into October, again serving as one of Dave Roberts’ most trusted leverage options. Phillips has not allowed a run in five appearances this postseason and is holding hitters to a .130 average, which is especially notable when he’s consistently facing the opponent’s top threats. — Kavner
The Yankees’ high-energy reliever famously used to drink five Red Bulls and two cups of coffee a day, so it’s a miracle that he’s still a viable option in this Yankees bullpen. But, more than that, Kahnle will enter his first career World Series appearance having just recorded a huge save for New York in Game 4 of the ALCS while Weaver was down. After recording a 2.11 ERA in 50 regular-season outings, Kahnle has yet to allow a run in seven innings this October, proving to be a key piece of the Yankees’ postseason puzzle. — Thosar
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
And then there were four. The Dodgers and the Yankees were preseason favorites to play for their respective pennants. The Mets and the Guardians were expected to reset in 2024 after finishing third in their divisions last year.
None of that matters now, as they’re all four wins from playing in the World Series.
With two fascinating matchups set for the league championship series, FOX Sports MLB experts Deesha Thosar and Rowan Kavner preview and predict the upcoming round in this week’s roundtable.
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1. Who is more likely to bust out in the LCS after a quiet division series: Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge?
Kavner: I think they both do, but I’ll go with Judge here. The last time he played against Cleveland, he homered four times in three games. He has an OPS over 1.600 against the Guardians this year. Granted, he’ll only be seeing the best of one of the top bullpens in baseball. But I think he can do some serious damage against that rotation and break out of his postseason funk. His last game of the Royals series was at least a little more encouraging.
Thosar: Judge. I think the Yankees as a team will be extremely confident entering the ALCS against the Guardians; New York has defeated Cleveland all three times they’ve faced off in the playoffs since Judge’s 2017 rookie season. In their most recent October meeting, which took place in the 2022 ALDS, the Yankees eliminated the Guardians with help from homers from Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. But more than that, Judge has a .947 OPS across 37 career games against Cleveland, and he looked much more like himself in the final two games against the Royals in the ALDS. He seems close to breaking out and having that signature postseason moment.
2. Who would the Yankees rather have faced, the Guardians or the Tigers?
Kavner: The Tigers. Detroit was running on good vibes and a no-name pitching staff (outside of Tarik Skubal) through an incredible late-season run, but the Guardians were the better team all year, have Jose Ramírez and will deploy the best bullpen in the sport. Steven Kwan and Lane Thomas are also getting hot at the right time, perhaps giving the Cleveland lineup just enough to make this interesting.
Thosar: The Tigers. Even with Tarik Skubal being the biggest threat to the Yankees, after the Tigers and Guardians went to a Game 5 and Detroit was forced to use him, that would’ve limited the number of outings from Skubal in a potential ALCS to just one start — unless the series reached a Game 7. The rest of Detroit’s rotation wasn’t scary enough to pose as a legitimate threat to guys like Judge, Juan Soto and postseason hero Giancarlo Stanton. The Yankees offense would’ve outslugged the Tigers’, and that goes a long way in a seven-game series. Cleveland will be more of a threat in that department with Jose Ramirez leading the way.
3. Whose pitching are you more confident in, the Dodgers‘ or the Mets‘?
Thosar: The Mets’. Beyond the fact that the Dodgers will have to deploy a bullpen game not once, but twice to get through the seven-game series … the Mets’ pitching staff is actually solid. Kodai Senga had one bad pitch to Kyle Schwarber in his postseason debut, and he’s expected to go a bit deeper into his start next time out. That opposing hitters haven’t seen him pitch in a year will be an advantage for him. But the Mets’ secret weapon continues to be Jose Quintana, who has allowed three earned runs over his past eight starts dating back to August 25, including two huge postseason outings against the Brewers and Phillies. The dominant stretch Quintana and the Mets have enjoyed is just not normal, and the rotation gives them a huge advantage right now.
Kavner: I’d take the Dodgers’ bullpen here, but overall, in a longer series like this in which it’ll be harder for them to ride their relievers day after day the way they’ll have to, I have to lean the Mets overall. Who would have thought back in the summertime that would be the case? Yoshinobu Yamamoto finally delivered a solid starting performance, but it’s hard to feel great about the state of the Dodgers’ rotation, especially when Yamamoto will likely only be able to start once this series since he won’t be going on short rest. The Dodgers’ pen worked wonders in a five-game series, with the pitching staff coming together to hold the Padres scoreless for the final 24 innings. But there might need to be multiple bullpen games for the Dodgers in this one, and that can wear a group out over a long series. The loss of Alex Vesia, who hurt his intercostal last series, is a significant one, and the Mets’ Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana have looked sensational in October.
4. How would you set the Dodgers’ starting rotation for this series?
Kavner: We know it’ll be Jack Flaherty for Game 1, and the Dodgers will need some length out of him. Then it gets interesting. I would use a bullpen game in Game 2 with Landon Knack pitching the bulk innings, whether starting or with an opener, so the relievers can then reset on the off day before potentially three straight days of games. That would leave Walker Buehler for Game 3 and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for Game 4. Flaherty could come back to start Game 5. There’s an off day before Game 6, so the Dodgers’ relievers could reset again for another all-hands-on-deck bullpen game in that one with Buehler ready for a Game 7.
Thosar: Jack Flaherty for Game 1, followed by Walker Buehler for Game 2, then Yoshinobu Yamamoto for Game 3, and then a bullpen game for Game 4, and run that order back for the remainder of the series. It will be interesting if the Dodgers will have to stick to giving Yamamoto the five days’ rest versus four, in which case they’d end up with two bullpen games and Yamamoto would only pitch Game 4 of the series. But this is the time to push him and take the risk of pitching their ace on four days’ rest to optimize his usage within a thin pitching staff. I would avoid that second bullpen game if possible.
4. What is the Mets’ blueprint to an upset?
Thosar: Their starters pitching as deep into games as possible and, of course, getting on base and continuing to set up big situations for Francisco Lindor. The Mets have the upper hand over the Dodgers with their starters (and that’s including the excellent results of David Peterson out of the bullpen) and they can avoid overusing their somewhat turbulent bullpen if Senga, Quintana, Sean Manaea, and Luis Severino do their thing for 5-7 innings. The Mets offense has, for the most part, been good at passing the baton, avoiding anxious at-bats, and trusting that the big hit will come eventually — even if it takes them nine innings to get a lead.
Kavner: I think the Dodgers’ offense might be enough to get through, but I wouldn’t even consider this an upset if the Mets win. Since June, they’ve been the best team in baseball. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have a decimated rotation, their starting shortstop out for the series and Freddie Freeman playing on one leg. That said, as much late-game magic as the Mets have provided during their run, they’ll need to flip the script a bit and get out to early leads. If their lineup, which has been one of the most productive this October, can get to Flaherty early, it not only puts them in the driver’s seat of the series by potentially stealing a game in Los Angeles, but also puts the Dodgers in a real predicament moving forward with their heavy reliance on the pen.
Bonus: Who will win each LCS?
ALCS — Yankees vs. Guardians – Thosar: Yankees. I just said Cleveland would make this interesting, and I believe that, but the AL became the Yankees’ to lose when the Astros got bumped out early. They have the offensive edge and the rotation edge in this series, and even the incredible Emmanuel Clase demonstrated that he’s not infallible. – Kavner: Yankees. Other than the fact that they’ve been down this road before, they have an extra weapon in Juan Soto this time around, which has led to one of their deepest lineups in years. I’m expecting Cleveland to serve as the elixir to Judge’s postseason underperformance, and Gerrit Cole to raise it up a notch because he’s not one to forget old grudges (yes, I’m referring to Josh Naylor implying he’s Cole’s daddy with one of the more memorable, and silly, home-run trots we’ve seen in recent Octobers). This is the easiest path the Yankees have had to the World Series in years, and I’d be surprised if they allowed themselves to get complacent when they’re this close to winning the pennant.
NLCS — Dodgers vs. Mets – Kavner: Dodgers. This one feels like a toss-up. Both teams are riding strong vibes into the NLCS, and both teams beat what I would consider to be the top two clubs in the NL to get here. They’ll each have to avoid an emotional letdown afterward, and ultimately I think the Dodgers’ experience in these spots help. I think their offense carries them in a series that could go the distance. – Thosar: Mets. Pitching rules October, and I’m not convinced the Dodgers have enough of it to sustain them in a long series. As evidenced by some of my previous answers, I think the Mets have the arms to get it done because, well, they already have. Their most important postseason games have featured guys like Quintana, Manaea, Peterson and even Tylor Megill stepping up and staving off the opponent long enough to keep their own offense in the game. That’s a major asset to have — even in the face of a talented Dodgers lineup.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
All four MLB wild-card series featured a 2023 postseason participant facing an opponent that missed the playoffs last year. The returning team was eliminated in each instance.
Welcome to October baseball.
With four intriguing — and largely dissimilar — matchups set for the League Division Series, FOX Sports MLB experts Deesha Thosar and Rowan Kavner preview and predict the upcoming round in this week’s roundtable.
1. Which team is currently better built for the postseason, the Dodgers or the Padres?
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Thosar: The more I think about it, the more of a toss-up this is. On one hand, San Diego’s pitching has outpaced Los Angeles’ across the board since adding key arms at the trade deadline. The Padres lead the National League with a 3.38 ERA in the second half, while the Dodgers are eighth at 4.16. It was obvious why Padres pitching has been such a boon for them in their wild-card series against the Braves, particularly with starter Michael King shoving seven scoreless innings in his first career playoff start, but also because of their dominant bullpen.
Also since the All-Star break, San Diego registered the NL’s second-best bullpen ERA (3.16) and WHIP (1.15). The Padres have one of the most important postseason elements — excellent pitching — fine-tuned for a deep October run. With that said, the Dodgers have Shohei Ohtani. It will be fascinating to see how Ohtani performs in his first career postseason, and if his finish to his first season with the Dodgers was any indication, he can eradicate excellent pitching just as much as he can pounce on mistakes. In the end, since playoff baseball is increasingly dependent on a deep pitching staff, I’ll give the edge to San Diego.
Kavner: The Padres, who right now might be better built for the postseason than any team in baseball. I think the Dodgers possess the scariest offense in the playoff field. Beyond the obvious big three at the top, the lineup looks deeper now than it did at the beginning of the year. Still, the Padres have the highest batting average and lowest whiff rate in the majors. They will make a pitcher work, their superstars have gotten hot at the right time, and whatever disadvantage they might have offensively is mitigated by their advantage on the pitching side.
The Joe Musgrove injury hurts, assuming he’ll miss time, but there are still more reliable arms in the Padres’ rotation than what their injured counterparts have to offer. This is not the group the Dodgers envisioned when they assembled their roster in the offseason. Game 1 starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto looked good in his return from the injured list in September, but he’s still building his way back up after missing nearly three months with a shoulder injury and doesn’t appear likely to be available on short rest in October.
Game 2 starter Jack Flaherty had a sensational season but enters the playoffs with a 6.43 ERA in his past three starts. There’s a lot of pressure on the Dodgers’ bullpen to hold things together, and there’s a strong argument to be made that the Padres might hold the advantage there, too, with the moves they made at the deadline.
2. Is there an area that you believe the Royals match up favorably with the Yankees or a weakness that they can exploit?
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Kavner: The Yankees have the clear Game 1 advantage with a well-rested Gerrit Cole going against Michael Wacha, but it’s not going to be a walk in the park for Yankees hitters. Wacha had a 2.79 ERA in the second half. The Yankees ranked 22nd in the majors in batting average against changeups this year, which is Wacha’s go-to pitch. Aaron Judge and Jazz Chisholm Jr., two of the Yankees’ best hitters against offspeed stuff, are a combined 1-for-21 in a small sample against Wacha. (The problem for Yankees opponents is they have to then deal with Juan Soto, so, good luck.)
And if the Royals manage to steal that game, things could get interesting quickly. I think Kansas City would have the rotation advantage the rest of the way with Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo slated to follow.
Their starters outdueling the Yankees’ is their only path to victory, because that Kansas City offense hasn’t offered much lately outside of Bobby Witt Jr. With the Astros and Orioles out, the Yankees have no excuse if they fall short of a trip to the World Series. The American League is theirs to lose.
Thosar: One of their best chances to gain leverage over the Yankees will be in Game 1, when Michael Wacha takes the hill for the Royals. Why? Wacha is one of the few pitchers in baseball who has managed to figure out how to retire Aaron Judge. Get ready for this: Judge has a .056 batting average and an identical .056 slugging percentage over 21 career plate appearances against the veteran right-hander, which includes one single and 11 strikeouts. It’s hard to believe. Besides Astros right-hander Cristian Javier, who Judge is hitless against in 13 career at-bats, the .056 mark is Judge’s lowest batting average facing any pitcher he’s had at least 10 at-bats against in his career.
Wacha should have all the confidence in the world facing Judge to open the ALDS, and Judge is surely aware of his history against him. That’s an enormous weakness the Royals can exploit immediately in Game 1, potentially removing one of two gigantic threats in the Yankees lineup as soon as Saturday.
3. Who would the Phillies have rather seen in the NLDS, the Brewers or the Mets?
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Thosar: The Brewers. This seems like an easy one, particularly because the last time the Phillies faced the Mets at Citi Field, New York took three out of four against Philly and used them as a springboard to better position them to contend for the playoffs. The Phillies’ division rivalry against the Mets will only intensify the NLDS for the team and the crowd, potentially adding unneeded pressure should the series start off worse than they’d hoped.
The Mets have been one of the hottest teams in the league, and they would have no fear about playing at the loud and raucous Citizens Bank Park. That’s not to say facing the Brewers would be a cake walk for the Phillies, particularly because of how elite Milwaukee is on the basepaths, in the bullpen, and at defense, plus how quickly Jackson Chourio can change the game with his glove and his bat. But the Phillies went 4-2 against the Brewers in the regular season, versus 7-6 against the Mets, and if they were to figure out how to get old friend Rhys Hoskins out, then Milwaukee’s offense wouldn’t pose as big of a threat to Philly’s pitching staff.
Kavner: The Brewers. The Phillies have a winning record against both, but the lack of starting pitching options in the Milwaukee rotation, the way the Brewers offense slowed down late in the year and the way the Mets have played down the stretch, New York looks like the more dangerous opponent. Moot point now, though!
4. What is the Tigers‘ blueprint to upsetting the Guardians?
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Kavner: It has to look more like it did in Game 1 of the wild-card series than Game 2. No, I don’t mean pitch Tarik Skubal in every game, though that would be a nice thought for Detroit fans. If the Tigers can replicate the timely hitting they had in Houston, they’ll have a chance. But it has to happen early. They have to win the first few innings and attack the Guardians’ vulnerable rotation before Cleveland turns the game over to the best bullpen in baseball. The Tigers’ collection of relief arms helped them get to this point, but tight games late will favor the Guardians.
Thosar: The Tigers are dangerous when they expertly carry an unselfish approach in their pitching staff. Of course, their success starts and ends with a dominant outing from ace and triple crown winner Tarik Skubal. But aside from the southpaw, Detroit is at its best when pitchers of all types and experience come into their outings and shove. There is no arguing with manager A.J. Hinch when he walks out of the dugout to take someone out.
Tigers pitchers do a better job than arguably any other pitching staff in the playoffs at being egoless and understanding that their roles include being used anytime, anywhere. They refer to this concept as “pitching chaos,” which includes using openers instead of traditional starters — yes, even in playoff games. That chaos could disrupt the Guardians offense without giving them time to create a game plan or breathing room to adjust.
5. Who will win each LDS?
Yankees vs. Royals – Thosar: Yankees — Juan Soto and Aaron Judge are like caged animals waiting to be released into the arena. Also, the Yankees dominate the AL Central, and this is now their easiest path to the World Series in several years, particularly with the Astros eliminated. –Kavner: Yankees —Aaron Judge vs Bobby Witt Jr. will be incredible theater, but I don’t think the Royals have enough offense behind Witt to keep up.
Guardians vs. Tigers – Thosar: Tigers — The inspired way the Tigers played to end the regular season, and the complete-team effort they showed to eliminate Baltimore in the wild card series, has convinced me that they’re this year’s Cinderella story that, at least, deserves to show their chops against the Yankees in a potential ALCS. –Kavner: Guardians —I probably shouldn’t go against whatever is happening right now in Detroit, but all those Cleveland relievers in a short series might just be overwhelming enough to end the Motor City magic.
Phillies vs. Mets – Thosar: Mets — They’re defying the odds left and right, and it wouldn’t be smart to bet against them right now. The Mets won three out of four against the Phillies in their final homestand of the season, and after a rest day on Friday, they should have no fear walking into Citizens Bank Park with the way they’re playing right now. – Kavner: Phillies —I said earlier this year I thought the Phillies were the most complete team in a season full of flawed clubs, and I’m going to stick with them. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, plus that rotation should get it done if the bullpen can hold up.
Dodgers vs. Padres – Thosar: Padres — San Diego’s pitching is lights out and has the depth required in a short and long series. Even though the Dodgers have Shohei Ohtani as their lethal weapon, their pitching doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. – Kavner: Padres —At full strength, I’d take the Dodgers. Shohei Ohtani is capable of carrying any club almost single-handedly the way he’s playing lately, but with their rotation in such rough shape, and with questions about Freddie Freeman’s health, and with the way the Padres have come together after their midseason adds, and for all the reasons I listed in question No. 1 above, I think San Diego now has the edge.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
October baseball has begun with a bang. With the Mets down to their last two outs, struggling slugger Pete Alonso flipped the script and launched New York past Milwaukee and into the National League Division Series.
Amazing.
FOX Sports MLB writers Deesha Thosar and Rowan Kavner offered their top takeaways from Thursday’s thriller.
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What’s cooler than cool? The Polar Bear
Pete Alonso, after scuffling through September and the first days of October, finally got his moment. Entering the biggest at-bat of his career, Alonso had two options. He could end his 2024 campaign (and perhaps his Mets career) on the sourest of notes, doing little to nothing to change the script in a win-or-go-home game. Or, he could help save the Mets season and possibly send them to the NLDS against the Phillies. Which one was calling out his name?
Option number two.
During a hard-fought at-bat against closer Devin Williams, in which he took balls on pitches 2, 3 and 4, Alonso’s decision to swing on the fifth pitch, a changeup in the heart of the zone, was a moment of destiny. The All-Star slugger crushed a ninth-inning three-run home run, the Mets dugout emptied onto the field, the watch party of 10,000 fans at Citi Field lost their minds, and a season of underwhelming moments from the Polar Bear were all but forgotten.
Up until Thursday’s Game 3, Alonso was becoming the butt of the joke. He couldn’t hit with runners in scoring position. He recorded a full-season career-low 34 home runs. As if things couldn’t get worse, he tripped on his bat while running out of the box in Wednesday’s Game 2 to produce an inning-ending double play. In a Mets season full of whimsy, humor and joy, Alonso was the odd-man out.
All year, the Mets waited for Alonso’s big moment. All year, manager Carlos Mendoza said it would come. Finally, in Game 165, it came. With one swing, Alonso erased all the bad memories of his walk year. Alonso needed that home run, no doubt. But the Mets needed it more, and that’s why Alonso delivered. — Deesha Thosar
Young talents are meeting the moment in these playoffs
In another world, we’d be talking about rookies Jackson Chourio and Tobias Myers catapulting the Brewers to the National League Division Series. Of course, Pete Alonso authored a different tale.
Devin Williams had allowed three runs in 22 appearances this season. The Mets tagged the Brewers star closer for four in the deciding Game 3 of the wild-card series. And just like that, a day after the neophyte Tigers bombarded former All-Star relievers Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader to move on in Houston, another highly decorated closer was sent off unceremoniously into a long winter.
While it won’t ease the pain of Brewers fans, it was their young standouts who gave them a chance. Chourio, at just 20 years old, finished the three-game set with five hits, including two game-changing homers in Milwaukee’s Game 2 victory that forced the win-or-go-home matchup. After Freddy Peralta was tagged for three runs in four innings in Game 1 and Frankie Montas allowed three runs (one earned) in 3.2 innings in Game 2, it was Myers, in his first career postseason appearance, spinning five scoreless frames. And before the late implosion, it was 24-year-old Sal Frelick providing a usually reliable Brewers bullpen an insurance run to work with.
MLB’s abundance of youthful talent has been on full display early in October, and that shouldn’t change now.
Padres Rookie of the Year candidate Jackson Merrill went 3-for-7 in the wild-card series with a double and a triple. Parker Meadows started the scoring in the Tigers’ clinching wild-card game in Houston with a homer.
For the division winners waiting for their turn, Yankees catcher Austin Wells and pitcher Luis Gil have been in the AL Rookie of the Year conversation most of the year. In Cleveland, Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis have helped turned the Guardians bullpen into a juggernaut. Both teams also have another rookie X-factor who could help flip a series in Jasson Domínguez and Kyle Manzardo, respectively. Whatever happens from here, more rookies will have a say. — Rowan Kavner
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
October is here, and the only thing certain in baseball is that it will be wild. Fittingly, the postseason commenced Tuesday with four wild-card games.
Day 1 certainly hasn’t disappointed thus far, as the Tigers and Royals stunned the Astros and Orioles, respectively.
FOX Sports MLB writers Deesha Thosar and Rowan Kavner will be offering their top takeaways from all the action.
Tarik Skubal and the Tigers absolutely came to play. Even taking away the fact that Detroit had to win Game 1 with their ace on the mound, this young and hungry squad made it obvious they’ll be tough to go through for the remainder of the series, too.
While Skubal’s dangerous arsenal and fired-up attitude were nothing new, what stood out to me is the advantage he gives himself by pitching so quickly. With that fast delivery, Skubal can easily replicate his mechanics and give hitters minimal time to adjust to what might be coming next. His six scoreless innings Tuesday made it easy to see how he earned the pitcher’s triple crown. — Deesha Thosar
As incredible as their end-of-season run was — they went an MLB-best 31-13 in their last 44 games and led the majors with a 2.72 ERA in that time — what was equally incredible is the way they did it, with ace Tarik Skubal serving as the workhorse of a patchwork rotation composed primarily of multi-inning relievers. That’s what it’s going to be in October, too. As manager AJ Hinch told reporters before the wild-card series, “Our plan, to give you an overview, is Tarik Skubal tomorrow and pitching chaos the rest of the way.”
The Tigers have clearly demonstrated they can win with that chaos, but it’s hard to rely on mayhem. Winning the Skubal game felt like a must. He provided the one sure thing in the Detroit rotation, and in his first career playoff appearance, the triple crown winner got it done.
Now, things will get interesting. The Tigers have other actual starters they can use on the roster, including Reese Olson and Casey Mize, but odds are the next day (or two) will feature a bevy of arms. Expect to see a good amount of Tyler Holton — he had an 0.83 ERA in the second half and threw only two pitches in Game 1 — with a chance to close it out.
For the Astros, it’s not panic time. They have the clear upper hand in the rotation the rest of the way, and experience is on their side. But the youthful Tigers, in the dance for the first time since 2014 after a scorching finish to the year, don’t appear fazed. — Rowan Kavner
Check back later for commentary on Royals-Orioles, Mets-Brewers and Braves-Padres.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
