Willy Adames vs. Carlos Correa: Who would you take over the next 5 years?

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The San Francisco Giants have finally landed a big fish. It only took the better part of a decade and the individual with the largest deal in franchise history to make it happen. Shortstop Willy Adames now holds that distinction, however, as his reported seven-year deal for $182 million tops that of new president of baseball operations Buster Posey.

The Giants, and perhaps Posey, found themselves in this position partly because the club’s 13-year, $350 million pact with Carlos Correa two winters ago fell through over concerns about his medicals. While Correa is coming off another All-Star (yet abbreviated) season, the Twins are reportedly open to trading the 30-year-old despite four years left on his contract. The 29-year-old Adames, meanwhile, is coming off perhaps the best year of his career with the Brewers.

That prompted the following debate between our MLB writers: 

Money being equal, who would you rather have for the next five years, Willy Adames or Carlos Correa?

Rowan Kavner: This is a close call considering Adames’ durability and home run ability, but I have to go with the upside of Correa. He’s a year older with a concerning injury history, but he’s also a three-time All-Star, former Rookie of the Year and Platinum Glove winner and, as his .905 OPS this year demonstrated, a potential MVP contender when he’s healthy. The downside, of course, is that he often isn’t.

Adames is a much better bet to actually stay on the field. He’s a consistently above-average player who just produced a career year offensively, though his high strikeout and whiff rates cap his offensive ceiling. The highest wRC+ Adames has produced in a season was 126 (he was 26% better than league average offensively in the shortened 2020 season); Correa, meanwhile, has averaged a 127 wRC+ for his career (and a 126 mark over the past four years).

Since 2021, Correa and Adames rank sixth and eighth, respectively, in FanGraphs’ version of WAR among shortstops. Limit it to the past three seasons, and they’re 10th and ninth. In other words, they’ve provided close to the same value in recent years, despite Adames playing in almost 100 more games during that stretch. You can look at that two ways. One, Adames has been the more reliable player. Two, Correa is usually the more productive player when he does play. Adames leaves the yard more often, but Correa hits the ball harder, strikes out less and reaches base more often. Adames has produced between 3-5 WAR and played in at least 139 games each of the past four seasons, but he has never had a season worth 5.0 or more WAR and has never been an All-Star. Correa, meanwhile, has played in 139 games just once since 2017, but the ceiling (as evidenced by his MLB-best 7.2 bWAR season in 2021) is considerably higher.

After a down year in 2023, Correa displayed both what remains in the tank and the dangers of relying on him to stay healthy in 2024. He slashed .310/.388/.517 with encouraging underlying numbers in an All-Star season but missed half the year with plantar fasciitis in his right foot. Even with Adames producing one of his best seasons ever — the former Brewers shortstop finished in the top 10 in MVP voting for the first time while posting career highs in hits, homers, RBI and stolen bases — Correa provided about the same value in about half the games.

I mentioned in our roundtable this week that I thought Adames was a perfect match for the Giants, who needed help up the middle defensively and a difference-maker in the lineup (the deal he was offered was exactly the max I said I would have given him). He was the type of player the Giants needed to get. But if I were picking between the two, I’d lean toward Correa, whose greater risk comes with greater reward.

Deesha Thosar: Adames. Perhaps the recency bias of his successful walk year is swaying me, but the 29-year-old’s career-high of 161 games in 2024 represent a major highlight, particularly when comparing him to Correa. As noted, the Giants broke their agreement with Correa a couple of winters ago because of medical issues, and there should be zero concerns about Adames’ physical health this time around. Given Buster Posey’s workhorse regimen during his prime years in San Francisco, it’s likely that Adames’ durability stood out to the new Giants front office leader — as it should. Avoiding major injuries, and playing through minor maladies, is not only becoming increasingly rare in today’s game, it’s an asset that Correa simply doesn’t have. Correa’s 86 games played in 2024 and the ongoing never-ending questions about his longevity are drawbacks that are really tough to look beyond. 

Especially for someone like Posey, who is at the early stages of setting a new standard of stability for Giants baseball, it’s important to field a roster of players who can be counted on. Not only was Adames known as a clubhouse leader in Milwaukee, he was a dependable bat at a premium position, too. Of course, shortstops age rapidly, so there is a general risk of physical decline in the field with Adames. But the pop in his bat, which has played well at Oracle Park, can offset some of his defensive concerns, and his dependability goes a long way when considering a deal for the next five years. Adames has a .321 batting average, .381 on-base percentage, and .827 OPS in 63 plate appearances at Oracle. Now, the two home runs he’s hit in that span are lackluster, but that’s to be expected in the pitcher-friendly ballpark. I’m expecting Adames’ walk rate to offset some of those power concerns. 

As for Correa, he always looks like he’s on the cusp of reclaiming his Houston superstar days — right up until he inevitably suffers an injury. There is no doubt at this point that those evaluating Correa for a five-year pact must readjust their expectations. Correa, who missed significant time with plantar fasciitis this past season, cannot make any promises about his finicky foot, which casts long-term concern on how much production to expect from the shortstop. I would be much more weary of going down that road with Correa than committing to a solid, albeit pricey, pact with Adames.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

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