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MLB postseason history suggests this Yankees-Dodgers matchup is likely over. Yankees-Dodgers World Series history suggests otherwise.
Playoff teams that have taken a 2-0 lead have won the series 77 of 92 times (84%). But in each of the past two Fall Classics between the Yankees and Dodgers (1978, 1981), and in three of their past five October meetings (1956), the home team won the first two games — only to lose the series.
So, which history is more likely to repeat itself in the 2024 World Series? FOX Sports MLB experts Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar weigh in on the opening two games in Los Angeles and what might be in store as the series shifts to New York.
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1. What are you expecting from Shohei Ohtani for the rest of this series after he suffered a shoulder subluxation in Game 2?
Kavner: Tough to say until we see that first swing. Dave Roberts struck an encouraging tone when referencing Ohtani’s strength and range of motion, but it’s hard to know until we see it in action. Then again, this is Ohtani we’re talking about, the guy who hit a walk-off grand slam to get to 40/40 and had the greatest single game ever to get to 50/50. Even if he’s limited, his presence alone is important for the Dodgers if he’s able to go. Something tells me he has at least one big swing, one more defining moment in a season full of them, left in him.
Thosar: We still don’t have all the information required to really know how how much he’s recovered since Saturday, but my gut says I would be surprised if there’s a discernible difference from Ohtani at the plate — this is the World Series, and I’m expecting him to give it his all. If there’s a tweak in his mechanics due to the partial shoulder dislocation, that could take a couple of at-bats in order for him to get used to how best to swing without pain. At least in Game 3, I would guess Ohtani won’t be as much of a threat to steal to ensure he doesn’t further injure himself.
2. How much of Aaron Judge’s postseason struggles do you think are mental as opposed to mechanical at this point?
Thosar: His poor swing decisions and how much he was chasing offspeed pitches are a strong indication that Judge is in his head. It’s not like his talent left the building overnight, and though he’s faced tough pitching in the World Series, his star teammates have found a way to break through at some point in the nine-inning game, so that can’t be an excuse. Now that the narrative that he struggles in the playoffs has reached a fever pitch and put all the pressure on Judge to come through big in Game 3, it will be extremely important for him to block out the noise and remind himself he was the best player in the major leagues the previous six months.
Kavner: Probably a combo, but it has to at least be part of the mix. When you’re saying things like, “I’m failing them,” how can it not? Mookie Betts, when he was going through his October rut, talked about how he took hundreds of swings a day and shut off social media for a period. Once he got some production late in the NLDS, he regained his confidence and looked like himself again. Betts, however, strikes out about half as often as Judge.
That’s the hard part for the Yankees captain, who has struck out in six of his nine at-bats this series and in 13 of his 22 at-bats going back to Game 3 of the ALCS. If there’s any weakness or swing and miss to a player’s game, it will get exploited in the postseason. The good thing for him, there’s still time to rewrite his October story. But it has to happen fast.
3. What has surprised you most through two games?
Kavner: How different Freddie Freeman has looked. When he went down at the end of September with his ankle sprain, it was supposed to be a 4-6 week injury, so it might make sense that he has turned a corner a month later. But that timeline was assuming he was resting and rehabbing, not playing through the issue (and often feeling worse off for it). He’s a daunting presence in the Dodgers’ lineup, regardless of the production, but considering how much the ankle had sapped his power for the first two rounds, I didn’t think a week off would be enough to turn him from a singles machine into a home run-mashing difference-maker. His teammates, however, clearly saw a change in that week between the NLCS and World Series. He looks like a completely different player in the World Series. Usually, it’s running that starts to cause him problems (which is why he was so much more limited late in the NLCS). I’ll be curious to see how his ankle holds up the longer this series goes.
Besides that, the other biggest stunner for me also involved Freeman. I was surprised to see the Yankees turn to starter Nestor Cortes, who hadn’t pitched all month with an elbow issue, in the middle of an inning, in the highest of leverage spots, to face the top of the Dodgers’ order in the 10th inning in Game 1. Obviously, we saw how that turned out.
Thosar: Judge’s complete absence as a legitimate threat has been very surprising. Even if there was a regression, and he wasn’t getting as many base hits, I expected him to at least get on base by drawing his walks against Dodgers starters Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, considering both pitchers should’ve been nervous to pitch to him in the zone. But the more he flailed at the plate, the more comfortable pitchers became pitching to him. By the end of Game 2, he was an automatic out, and I don’t think anyone saw that coming.
4. Do you believe this Series will make it back to Los Angeles?
Thosar: I think the Series is going back to Los Angeles because I don’t think the Yankees will crumble without a fight, and I’m expecting Judge to wake up in the Bronx in front of the home fans. I think the Yankees slugger needed a rest day and a reset more than anything, so after a break from the madness on Sunday, he should return to more of a semblance of himself in more familiar surroundings. There’s a good chance New York wins two of the next three games with three consecutive right-handers starting on the hill, but that fight has to get going Monday with a strong start right out of the gates at home. If the Yankees drop to 0-3, I’m way less confident the Series will go back to L.A.
Kavner: I do, although I also think the Dodgers take one in the Bronx. The Yankees’ biggest advantage in this series was always its rotation. It hasn’t paid off yet, and it was a massive blow for them to lose the Gerrit Cole start, especially considering how well Cole pitched, but their upper hand with starting pitching also had to do with depth. Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil have been better this year than any healthy pitchers the Dodgers have after Jack Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Then again, bet against Walker Buehler in a big game at your own peril. He displayed some really encouraging signs with the whiffs he was getting his last time out, particularly with his secondary stuff. Still, the Dodgers will have to run a bullpen game in Game 4 without Evan Phillips, and then the Yankees get another Gerrit Cole start. The theme this postseason for the Dodgers has been how their fans have finally gotten to celebrate their October success, the way they couldn’t when the team won in 2020. The Dodgers clinched this year’s NLDS at home, then clinched the NLCS at home. My gut says it’s 3-2 going back to Los Angeles, where they’ll have the chance to finish it at Dodger Stadium again.
5. Do you think the outcome of this series will have any impact on Juan Soto’s free-agent decision? Do you expect him to ultimately sign with the Yankees?
Kavner: Not really. You could come up with narratives either way — that he’d be more willing to stay if they win the World Series, or that he could be motivated to finish the job if they fall just short — but ultimately, money talks. There’s a team across the bridge that has a lot of it, but I would be stunned if the Yankees didn’t find a way to do whatever it takes to keep Soto in pinstripes. They would never hear the end of it.
Thosar: It will be harder for Soto to walk away from the Yankees if they win a championship together, I think. In that same vein, it would be much more difficult for the Yankees to do anything but make a competitive offer to Soto, one that he likely couldn’t refuse, right after possibly winning a title. Ultimately, I expect Soto to sign with the Yankees because he’s been a perfect fit in the Bronx and has excelled in New York — as evidenced by his career highs in home runs, hits, and runs scored. Hal Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman will have to do their part by meeting or getting close to his asking price.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
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