What’s happened to the Athletics?

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The A’s record now stands at 23-39, last in the AL West and, if not for the White Sox, would be the worst showing in the American League in 2025. Since May 6, they have a worse record (3-23) than the Rockies (5-21), who are on pace to have the worst season in modern MLB history. They have exactly one more victory at home through June 3’s game as they did following their win at Sutter Health Park on May 5 against the M’s: they’re 9-21 in their temporary home, and 14-18 on the road. They’ve performed so poorly of late that they’re no longer in danger of setting a record for the largest difference between their road and home winning percentages, because those figures have moved closer together now that the Athletics aren’t winning road games, either.

While even the 20-16 record featured a negative run differential that should have kept anyone from getting too excited about the Athletics’ performance, the difference between then and now is still stark: the A’s were outscored by 21 runs in their first 36 games, but by 102 runs in their last 26 contests. This isn’t the A’s merely coming back to Earth, as that first run differential suggested was possible. They instead crashed into the planet at a terrifying velocity, leaving a crater behind.

And they might be stuck in there, too, if the reasons for their recent struggles are any indication. As said, the A’s are still hitting. As a team, they’re at .252/.325/.409 since May 6. While that’s worse than what they were up to before the downturn – .256/.318/.422 – the difference isn’t massive, and it’s still above the league-average of .244/.316/.395. Wilson (.376/.433/.581) has been even better than he was at the start of the year, and he’s had help from the likes of Lawrence Butler (.287/.362/.564), rookie Nicholas Kurtz (.222/.317/.537) and Brent Rooker (.304/.372/.471). The A’s are actually eighth in the majors at OPS+, at 107. 

For comparison, the other three teams on pace for at least 100 losses as of this writing – the White Sox (81), Pirates (79) and Rockies (71) – rank as the three worst offenses in the league by OPS+. 

If it’s not the hitting, it doesn’t take an advanced degree in sports analytics to determine what the problem for the A’s is. The pitching is, in a word, bad. That word is not quite forceful or evocative enough to get the real sense of things, but that’s what the numbers are for. 

Whereas the A’s have an OPS+ of 107, their ERA+, which takes into account league environment and park factors to determine how high above or below the average a team’s ERA is, is 70. Which is to say that they’re the Rockies’ hitters of pitchers. At 70, their ERA+ is the worst in the league. They’re one of just three clubs with ERA+ in the 70s, and one of five with an actual ERA north of 5 – the A’s, at 5.85, are approaching six earned runs per nine. Again, for comparison’s sake, the Rockies – who play at Coors Field, and also have Rockies pitchers – have an ERA of 5.49 this season. 

As a team, the A’s are allowing a .313 batting average on balls in play, the third-highest in the majors and well above the average of .289. They’re allowing the second-most home runs per nine innings (1.5) and have the worst home ERA (6.22) in the majors: opponents are batting .283/.360/.502 with 53 homers at Sutter Health Park. As good as the A’s offense has been, there is no comparison. And things seem to be getting worse in this regard, too, since the Athletics’ pitching staff has allowed opposing teams, regardless of park, to bat .311/.387/.567 and launch 57 homers since May 6. 

It’s not all Sutter Health, but it’s not helping, either. That stadium has been the most hitter-friendly in MLB this year with a park factor of 112, per the Statcast-powered Savant, alongside Oriole Park at Camden Yards. While home runs have been a more significant issue in Baltimore, doubles and triples are dominating at Sutter Health… for now. Eventually, it’s going to heat up in Sacramento, and some of those doubles and triples might turn into homers themselves. 

One reason the A’s stuck with grass at Sutter Health Park, despite the wear-and-tear that comes from two teams – the A’s themselves and their Triple-A hosts, the Sacramento River Cats – playing on the surface was the summer heat. Switching to turf would have meant less upkeep than grass, but also increased temperatures, per MLB’s research. Sacramento already experiences dozens of 100-degree days each summer, with a record 45 of them during 2024’s baseball season: amplifying that heat further with the playing surface was unwise.

Which is to say that things are only going to heat up in Sacramento once summer hits, and higher temperatures – especially higher temperatures in less humid climates – mean more offense, since the ball travels further in warmer air. The A’s pitching staff might be in serious trouble when spring ends.

It works both ways, though, since the A’s will be able to hit in these same conditions, but the offense already can’t keep up. Free agent starter Luis Severino was supposed to be a stabilizing force in the rotation, and he has been in the sense he’s leading the starters in ERA+, but at a below-average 90. He’s given up 19 runs in his last 27.2 innings and five starts since May 6, which makes for the second-best ERA among A’s pitchers with at least one start during that stretch. The team’s ERA during the entire 26-game run is 7.04, with a HR/9 (2.25) higher than the team’s K/BB (2.2). 

Is there enough offense to counteract this, anywhere? Unlikely. Which means the A’s need their pitchers to improve their performance, or be replaced by those who can do that, before another blistering summer exacerbates the existing issues. 

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