Why your team will — and won't — win the 2024 World Series

Rowan Kavner

MLB Writer

Deesha Thosar

MLB Writer

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Welcome to the most unpredictable time of the year. While parity in Major League Baseball seems greater than ever, it’s been a fabric of the postseason since the turn of the century. No team has won consecutive World Series titles since the 2000 Yankees, a streak that will continue as the defending champion Texas Rangers have nothing to defend this October.

While there are new and familiar favorites heading into these playoffs, recent history has shown that the past six months should be taken with a grain of salt. It’s all about who can catch fire over the next four weeks. And all 12 — well, 13 for now — remaining clubs are contenders.

With that, FOX Sports MLB experts Rowan Kavner and Deesha Thosar make the case for why each postseason participant will and won’t win the World Series in 2024.

(Teams are listed by seeding. The National League’s final two wild-card seeds will be determined Monday by the Braves-Mets doubleheader. World Series odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

AMERICAN LEAGUE

1. New York Yankees
World Series odds: +450

Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: The Yankees own the best offense in the American League, and even though there’s a steep drop-off in production after their top-heavy heart of the order, they’ve still managed to overpower opposing pitching staffs throughout the course of a nine-inning game. Facing Aaron Judge and Juan Soto is a pitcher’s nightmare, and if Giancarlo Stanton can replicate his .963 postseason OPS and Austin Wells recaptures some of his late-summer magic, there will be little choice but to go through New York’s dynamic duo, rather than just give them free passes. The Big Three of Judge, Soto, and Gerrit Cole operating at their best this October gives the Yankees a clear advantage that could take them all the way to the Fall Classic.

Why they won’t: Defense and silly, unforced errors. Gleyber Torres‘ suboptimal baserunning is a glaring issue, particularly because no other player has been thrown out at the plate more than the Yankees’ second baseman this year, but he’s not the only one with mistakes on the basepaths. The Yankees are ranked dead last in baserunning metrics and Soto, too, has made questionable decisions while attempting to advance. Too often this year, we’ve seen Alex Verdugo failing to hustle out of the box, and other players at times lacking heads-up decision-making. Rookie Jasson Dominguez has been having quite the adventure in left field, struggling to make catchable plays and generally appearing uncomfortable. Other playoff contenders are much cleaner and sharper on defense, to the point where this flaw could be fatal. — Deesha Thosar

2. Cleveland Guardians
World Series odds: +1100

Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: They have the best bullpen and closer in the majors. Emmanuel Clase has a 0.61 ERA on the year and has converted each of his past 34 save opportunities. Each of the Guardians’ four most-used relievers — Clase, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin and Cade Smith — have an ERA under 2.00 for the year. The Cleveland bullpen’s 2.57 ERA is the lowest mark of any relief group since the 2013 Braves. If the Guardians build an early lead, the game’s over. Superstar José Ramírez has some help in the power department this year from Josh Naylor, and deadline addition Lane Thomas and rookie Kyle Manzardo are heating up at the right time.

Why they won’t: Cleveland’s elite arms at the back end can stifle any opponent, but building a lead to get to those behemoths will be an issue. The Guardians rank 17th in OPS on the season and 26th since the break. Their offense has the lowest hard-hit rate in baseball while their starting pitchers rank 24th in ERA. No team has won a World Series with a rotation that ranked outside the top 10 in ERA since the 2015 Royals. The only move the team made to address the issue was trading for Alex Cobb, who was injured the entire first half. He has been limited to three starts all season. Matthew Boyd provided a second-half spark, but aside from Tanner Bibee, the options don’t exactly inspire confidence. — Rowan Kavner

3. Houston Astros
World Series odds: +850

Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: They cannot be counted out until the final out of an elimination game. Many people don’t want to hear this, but what the Astros have done to win their seventh division title in the past eight years is nothing short of remarkable. They were 10 games behind the first-place Mariners in late June, dealing with injuries to multiple key players, only to clinch the AL West again with their third different manager in six years. The Astros have won before by cruising, but these past couple of years they’ve gone into October battle-tested to preserve a now eight-year streak of playoff appearances. That kind of pedigree can frighten opponents before even stepping onto the field. Once again, Houston has the roster talent and the street cred to get it done.

Why they won’t: Yordan Alvarez’s knee injury and potential first-year manager stumbles. The Astros slugger has been such an integral part of their recent runs, including slugging six homers and tallying 15 RBI in 11 playoff games last year. With their playoff weapon dealing with a sprained right knee, it’s unclear if Alvarez will even play in the postseason, let alone be healthy enough to do anything but DH. That could limit plate appearances for catchers Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini. Alvarez’s injury couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Astros. Then there’s the unknown element of Joe Espada’s first time managing in the playoffs, and all the nerves and indecision that could accompany it. Espada has done well to this point, but he’ll have to stay intact as the lights get brighter. — Deesha Thosar

4. Baltimore Orioles
World Series odds: +1200

Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: A talented offense and a certified ace in Corbin Burnes. Baltimore’s No. 1 starter becomes a free agent this winter, and the Orioles will be depending on him to take them to the World Series while they have him, particularly because most of the arms behind Burnes are less than threatening. Since 2020, only Wheeler (24.5) has a higher fWAR than Burnes (21.4). Competitive to his core, it will be fascinating to watch Burnes test his own limits in Baltimore’s playoff run, mere days and weeks before he explores the market under agent Scott Boras’ guidance. There is already no doubt he will enter free agency as baseball’s top available pitcher, and it will only boost his appeal if he’s towing a World Series ring.

Why they won’t: Their suboptimal second half. The Orioles were the best team in baseball to begin the year, only to look like a completely different ballclub since the All-Star break. Their bullpen has really hurt them these past few months, ranking 27th in the majors in ERA (4.60) and 18th in WHIP (1.28) since July 19. They had several chances to catch the Yankees, who also spiraled into the All-Star break, for the division lead. But the O’s squandered any and every opportunity to capitalize down the stretch. There have been key players in prolonged slumps, and it’s easy to forget that this is still a young roster because of their surprising division-clinching race to the playoffs last year. Momentum is still possible, but the O’s might have too many question marks to answer at this stage. — Deesha Thosar

5. Kansas City Royals
World Series odds: +2500

Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: They have a superstar in Bobby Witt Jr. putting together one of the greatest all-around seasons from a shortstop ever and one of the top catchers and rotations in the playoff field. Their starting pitchers will enter the postseason with the lowest ERA of any team playing in October. In Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans and Michael Wacha, the Royals boast three starting pitchers who rank in the top 20 in ERA. The club’s relievers haven’t been quite so reliable — but that hasn’t been an issue lately. The Kansas City bullpen ranks in the top 10 in ERA this month, settling in behind boosts from Daniel Lynch, who hasn’t allowed a run since getting recalled in late August, and deadline addition Lucas Erceg.

Why they won’t: At a time you’d hope to be building some momentum going into October, the Royals have a losing record this month. It’s not a coincidence that coincides with the loss of their first baseman. The lack of depth in the lineup has been exposed after Vinnie Pasquantino’s thumb injury late last month. Since he went down, the Kansas City offense ranks last in the majors in every slash line category. Pasquantino could be back for the postseason, but the length of the lineup will remain an issue. Of the 13 Royals batters with at least 20 at-bats this month, seven are hitting under .200. And while the Royals’ bullpen has been strong lately, it’s still a group that ranks in the bottom half of the sport in ERA and strikeout rate in the season’s second half. — Rowan Kavner

6. Detroit Tigers
World Series odds: +2700

Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: Youthful exuberance, paired with legitimate talent, can be a secret weapon in the postseason. Whether it’s 24-year-old outfielder Riley Greene’s .827 OPS, or Kerry Carpenter’s strong return from injury, or the impactful prospects they called up to complement emerging talents, all the Tigers do lately is win. Plus, Detroit’s bullpen sneakily owns the fourth-best ERA in the big leagues. The relief unit of Jason Foley, Tyler Holton, and Will Vest has been all kinds of dominant, and that’s a huge X-factor as long as the Tigers offense can give them some run support. A.J. Hinch is managing this year’s Cinderella Story team and Detroit’s underdog element could be the spoiler for some playoff favorites — even though it’s a long shot.

Why they won’t: Ultimately, this is a lineup lacking stars with no real experience having what it takes to get through the gauntlet that is postseason baseball. We saw how quickly the young and inexperienced Orioles were dismantled by the Texas Rangers as early as the wild-card round last year, and it would surprise exactly no one if the Tigers fell to the same fate. Their lack of pitching depth is another concern in October. Imagine how much better their chances would’ve been if they hadn’t traded Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers, and he was lined up to pitch behind ace Tarik Skubal? It’s astonishing that Detroit is even on this list, and for that, the club deserves a spending spree from ownership this winter for quality veterans who will support 2024’s promising roster. — Deesha Thosar

NATIONAL LEAGUE

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
World Series odds: +350

Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: Their pitching staff is depleted, they’ve won fewer than 100 games in a full season for the first time since 2018 and yet … here the Dodgers are, the top seed in the National League with the best record in baseball. Despite their deficiencies, they have Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman (assuming he is able to return from his ankle injury in time for the playoffs). That trio plus a highly capable supporting cast behind them led by Teoscar Hernández, Will Smith and Max Muncy might be enough to outslug the pitching concerns. The deadline acquisitions of Jack Flaherty, Michael Kopech and Tommy Edman could be just enough to give them everything they need.

Why they won’t: So, about those pitching concerns … how many playoff games would a team win with a rotation starring some combination of Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone, Dustin May, River Ryan and Emmet Sheehan? Well, all of them will be unavailable to the Dodgers when the calendar flips to October. Considering the up-and-down season for Walker Buehler and how little there is available to the Dodgers behind him, there’s a lot riding on the success of Flaherty and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who missed nearly three months with a shoulder injury. Too much, perhaps. — Rowan Kavner

2. Philadelphia Phillies
World Series odds: +360

Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: They’re a well-balanced team. The Phillies are smooth in several facets of the game, including a dominant starting rotation led by Zack Wheeler, one of the most cool-under-pressure arms in the majors, and a potent offense that’s ranked fifth in MLB in slugging. The Phillies are as hungry as they’ve ever been to bring a parade back to Philly after getting stung by the Astros in the World Series in 2022 and collapsing versus the Diamondbacks in the NLCS last year. After a heartbreaking offseason and a determined regular season, they want to prove they can finish the job. They’re already in better shape than in years past by winning their first division title since 2011. The Phillies enter October as one of the top three teams to beat, alongside the Yankees and Dodgers.

Why they won’t: The bullpen, and the offense when Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber aren’t crushing home runs. Dave Dombrowski did a good job at the trade deadline by bolstering the relief corps, the Craig Kimbrel-induced Achilles heel that more or less led to their collapse in last year’s NLCS. This time around, the addition of Carlos Esteves in the mix should help a great deal, but their bullpen is still ranked 16th in MLB in ERA, with several other playoff contenders sporting better, more complete units. The Phillies might need their starters to go as deep as possible to minimize bullpen usage, and even then there are no guarantees with this group. Plus, the offense can be somewhat flaky when the usual suspects aren’t crushing bombs, and that’s a concern for an otherwise dominant Phillies team. — Deesha Thosar

3. Milwaukee Brewers
World Series odds: +1900

Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: The Brewers traded Corbin Burnes … and still managed to assemble one of the best pitching staffs in the sport. Freddy Peralta leads an unheralded rotation that includes a rookie in Tobias Myers who deserves more attention than he has received, but what guides this team is a bullpen that leads the NL with a 3.17 ERA. The group was already electric with Devin Williams out and, to no one’s surprise, looks even better since his return. The shutdown closer hasn’t allowed a run in September. Offensively, the loss of Christian Yelich hurts, but the power of William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins, the speed of Brice Turang and the combination of both provided by Willy Adames and breakout rookie Jackson Chourio gives manager Pat Murphy plenty to work with.

Why they won’t: That offense has started to show cracks, ranking 27th in batting average and 26th in on-base percentage in September. Lefties in particular can cause problems for the lineup. But the biggest red flag is the rotation, which just might not have enough elite arms to carry the team through October. Peralta orchestrated his second straight 200-strikeout season, but Myers is a rookie, Colin Rea has a 7.43 ERA over his last seven appearances and veteran addition Frankie Montas has an ERA close to 5.00 on the year. — Rowan Kavner

4. San Diego Padres
World Series odds: +1100

Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: The new-look Padres offense with Luis Arráez at the top boasts the highest batting average and lowest whiff and strikeout rates in the sport. Jurickson Profar is having a career year at age 31, Jackson Merrill has emerged as a Rookie of the Year contender at 21, and their stars are hot at the right time. But it goes beyond the offense. The Padres have been the best team in baseball in the second half in large part due to a pitching staff that has the National League’s lowest ERA since the break. San Diego’s rotation is whole again and pitching lights out in September, and the deadline-bolstered bullpen is one of the sport’s most imposing. All the pieces are there for a deep run.

Why they won’t: As good as the pitching staff has been, it’s never great going into the postseason with the ninth inning feeling unsettled. Robert Suarez is an All-Star this year, but he has a 6.00 ERA and three blown saves in September and has allowed hits in 11 of his past 14 appearances. Michael King has played a vital role in the rotation’s success, but he’s in uncharted territory having already shattered his previous high in innings pitched. Behind him, a season-ending injury to Ha-Seong Kim now will force the Padres to shift Xander Bogaerts back to shortstop. It’s nitpicking, but that’s not an ideal defensive scenario in San Diego. — Rowan Kavner

5. Atlanta Braves
World Series odds: +2500

Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: Chris Sale, set to win his first career Cy Young, is as lethal a weapon as it gets in the playoffs. The 1-2 punch of Sale and Max Fried, plus righty Reynaldo Lopez and the emergence of Spencer Schwellenbach, makes Atlanta scary in a three or five-game series. Pitching wins in October, and Atlanta’s arms have the best ERA in the majors — yes, topping even Seattle’s pitching staff. No team has come close to matching the staff’s total strikeouts, the bullpen is strong and the entire unit is capable of carrying the Braves to their second championship since 2021. Plus, it seems like Atlanta excels when its expectations are low – à la ‘21 without Ronald Acuña Jr. It’s not like things went well when they flashed the best regular-season record in baseball last year, only to collapse against their rival Phillies in the NLDS. Perhaps, coming out of the wild-card side of the postseason bracket will be more ideal.

Why they won’t: Then again, maybe this just isn’t their year. As much credit as the Braves should receive for making it this far without their stars, this is exactly the time of year when it’s hard to ignore the onslaught of injuries to Acuña, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, and even A.J. Minter. The Braves don’t have as much depth as they’re used to relying on in the playoffs, and that could come back to hurt them. Their offense is another typical area of reliability that has underwhelmed this year. In terms of wRC+, Marcell Ozuna is the only hitter in the Braves lineup to appear among the top 45 hitters in the majors this season. Atlanta’s on-base percentage is just league average this year, and that could be especially concerning in the postseason against the top pitchers in the game. — Deesha Thosar

6. New York Mets
World Series odds: +3200

Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: Grimace is determined to throw out the first pitch in a World Series game. The Mets’ quirky season has revealed a sense of camaraderie and chemistry that can be the stuff of magic for World Series champions. There is something to be said of the club digging itself out of the basement in May to becoming one of the hottest teams in baseball, led by a first-year manager in Carlos Mendoza who expertly guided a sinking ship to October baseball. Stars like Francisco Lindor (enjoying an MVP caliber season), J.D. Martinez (2018 World Series winner), and Edwin Díaz (one of the best closers in baseball) can be dangerous in the playoffs. But Pete Alonso has been somewhat of a sleeping bear this season who very well could wake up just in time before his upcoming free agency to be the wildest of the bunch, yet.

Why they won’t: While Sean Manaea and Luis Severino had bounce-back seasons that were critical to the Mets clinching a playoff spot, it remains concerning whether the rotation overall is a big enough threat to go deep into October, let alone win the Fall Classic. Manaea has a 15.26 ERA in three career playoff outings (two starts). Severino has historically struggled to step up in big games, giving up 25 earned runs in 43.2 playoff innings with the Yankees. Behind those two arms, the durability of Jose Quintana, who pitches better with longer rest periods, is something of an unknown. And southpaw David Peterson is coming off an up-and-down September and lacks playoff experience. — Deesha Thosar

7. Arizona Diamondbacks
World Series odds: +4800

Why they’ll be 2024 World Series champions: The D-backs have committed the fewest errors in the sport again, but if last year’s NL champs are going to finish the job in 2024, it’s an offense that ranks in the top two in every slash line category that will be leading the way. All-Star starter Ketel Marte has the third-highest OPS among qualified NL players, Christian Walker should have been an All-Star, Joc Pederson has an OPS over .900, Eugenio Suarez has 29 homers in a bounce-back year, Randal Grichuk is hitting over .400 this month and Corbin Carroll is finding his form. It’s not a fluke that the Snakes have MLB’s top offense since the break.

Why they won’t: As the offense is thriving, the pitching staff is floundering. D-backs pitchers have the highest ERA in MLB this month. The issues are widespread. The bullpen has an ERA over 6.00 and the rotation has an ERA over 5.00 in September — a surprise considering the pieces Arizona added to try to remedy both issues. Newcomers Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez have been replacement level players this season, each with an ERA over 5.00. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly demonstrated last year they don’t need much help to carry the squad’s rotation, but the bullpen just doesn’t look capable right now of providing much support. — Rowan Kavner

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

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